What We’re Watching For When The Super Tuesday Results Roll In | Talking Points Memo

Super Tuesday is here.

More than a third of the Democratic pledged delegates who will ultimately vote at the party’s convention this July will be assigned according to how voters choose their preferences today. Fourteen states will cast ballots, and American Samoa will hold its caucuses.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1294533

Didn’t polls show biden and Sanders very close before the election in SC?

This would be interesting. Might make folk Klobuchar predictions for Biden’s vp a reality

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Early in the week last week they sure did. Lots of things have been happening so fast since Saturday that I doubt the polls will or could keep up with the movement before the last polling place closes today. Lotta polls/surveys being tossed about yesterday were conducted before Saturday.

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No.

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Fivethirtyeight’s moving average poll aggregator has been all over the place on the democratic primaries the past 5 days. Not worth reading anything into that; they should pull their graphs and automated predictions when the numbers are too uncertain, most especially on election night (yes 538, I’m talking about your heinous moving neede predictor Nov 6, 2018, which you did pull, hours too late).

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Biden will name an African American as his vice president or he will be cutting his own throat. They have come thru for him so far and he needs to acknowledge that in a big way. We’ll see if Harris endorses him today when he is in Oakland. She would be my pick for vice because of her name recognition and record, but for strategic reasons to bring in the Southern vote it has been pointed out by others here at TPM that Abrams could be the pick.

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Abrams’ resume is very thin for a national position. I would prefer Harris from the two.

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That is my thinking, too. I like Anthony Brown from MD, too, but, again, he doesn’t have the name recognition.

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Sure did.
Been keeping an eye on the day-to-day at FiveThirtyEight.
The forecast has not only reversed from last Thursday-- but appreciably-- to Biden.

Chances of ‘half delegates at convention’ went from Biden 1-in-12 (8% Thurs) to 3-in-10 (30% Tues) today (Sanders is 1-in-8 12% today).

Chances of ‘plurality of delegates at convention’ went from Biden 1-in-8 (12% Thurs) to 2-in-3 (66% Tues) today (Sanders is 1-in-3 33% today).

That’s one helluva South Carolina / Amy&Pete bounce.

jw1

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Perhaps in the GE. Could agree on that last week prior to ED.
Primaries? Need numbers. Up to me-- to decide for me-- the context.

jw1

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Crap numbers are crap and tell you nothing. When the numbers are this obviously meaningless, the respectable thing to do is to suspend publishing them.

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I’m 50/50 on Harris or Abrams, I think Abrams could put Dems closer to those 2 GA Senate Seats. Not sure what Harris adds to the Ticket, since CA is a given. However, I like Harris, she’d be a good VP candidate.

It’s also possible that Biden goes for a WoC that doesn’t have a National Name but, is very Progressive. Although, to be honest I have no idea who would fit the bill.

In the end, if Biden is the nominee he should pick a WoC as his running mate, IMO.

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If they were to do that, they’d all have to shut up for a brief moment.

Plus they’d lose money.

It doesn’t take a Nate Silver to calculate the probabilities.

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I scream at the pollsters on TV all the time.

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Harris also showed early support for M4A. This is also points for her in the other needed trait of a VP pick in 2020, unifying the party.

Aside from the obvious that she passes the CiC test on day one, she would balance Biden on Age, Geography, Gender, Diversity and mental sharpness

ETA: If Bernie pulls out the Nom, I think Harris could still work as she balances Bernie in similar ways and she still would be considered to temper Bernie’s left leanings.

I really wish neither Bernie nor Biden ran. The conversations on these comment boards would be a lot more interesting

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Mee too
She would make ground chuck out of whatever Toady Trump uses for a VP

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That oughta help!

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Just letting them know how full of BS I think they are. It helps me.

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Yesterday:


There’s already a YouTube clip out.

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Polls direct the herd.

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