What Defaulting On Our Debt Would Actually Look Like

The threat that Republicans have been teasing since before the 2022 midterms looms all the larger on this side of the debt ceiling, as the Treasury Department shuffles money around to keep paying our bills.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://talkingpointsmemo.com/?p=1446631

Thanks republicans
Debt default on your watch is not a good tactic for reelection.
Got that?
Beyond that it would kill your future as a political party and more than that it would very likely crash our economy and that of the world. So go ahead and play with your “strike anywhere” matches.

catmouse

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Toxoplasmosis is one hell of a drug.

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The final answer needs to be to allow all this to happen and the administration sue the legislature into the SCOTUS.

It needs to be settled against the 14th amendment. It needs to be settled for all going forward, none of this carve-out nonsense that the debt ceiling nonsense is only possible for Biden or other Democratic presidents, but not relevant for a GQP president.

Either the 14th amendment has validity or it doesn’t. This isn’t a decision that can be made by anyone other than SCOTUS and, after 50 years of abuse, it’s high time the decision is made.

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[Republicans] would dislodge America’s position as the standard bearer of financial security

Why?

For personal profit. For money from the bottom scum suckers of the world like Donald Trump.

“I do better in a bad economy.”

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They ran up the debt during the Trump years and now the burn it down caucus doesn’t want to pay for it. And these same people, will blame Democrats for the catastrophe. A group of R Senators have jumped on the band wagon as well. Every single one of them are fools.

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From what I have read 25% of our present national debt was run up in trump’s 4 year term.

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This article is splitting hairs, but:

Using official Treasury figures from the fiscal year, the national debt increased by $7 trillion during Trump’s presidency.

Given the current debt is just over $31.4 trillion, Jolly’s self-described “rough” 25 percent figure claimed by Jolly is imprecise based on Treasury data; it is actually 22.3 percent of the current total.

Fact Check: Under Donald Trump, Did U.S. Accrue 25% of National Debt? (newsweek.com)

If the number presented had been over 30% and the actual had been 22%, yeah, it’s a problem, but really 3% and we’re going to quibble? Not directed at you, Darr.

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This is an OK explainer.

US Debt by President | Chart & Per President Deficit | Self.

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GOP leaders have theorized that the government may be able to make principal and interest payments on the debt while putting off its other bills, an attempt to calm bondholders and maintain the reality … that investing in U.S. Treasury securities continues to be one of the safest investments that can be made.

So the rentier class and our global creditors get theirs while, for the rest of us, it’s a long way down.
I guess if you’re a reactionary, there’s not much not to like in that: it is, for all intents and purposes, their prime, unstated policy plank.

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But, but Biden is the President and Democrats will get the blame if they don’t pay the ransom. Didn’t work before and wouldn’t this time either. Making adjustments to the budget is done by passing laws NOT using extortion. If the changes they want can’t be passed by the will of the people (thru their representatives they have voted for) then it doesn’t have majority support. They don’t want to pass laws and a budget, they want to throw a temper tantrum and bully the majority to appease them. You don’t give in to terrorists (or they do it again).

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So the price for settling the 14th Amendment question is deepening a mild recession into a full blown depression worldwide if we default? That’s a stiff price to pay, assuming those predictions are correct.

Even if the pain is relatively mild with delayed SS checks and other disruptions, it doesn’t help us with the 2024 elections if the economy is in the tank for a few years. I wouldn’t count on being able to just blame the R’s for what happened.

I continue to hope that we can pull enough R votes in the House over to our side to prevent a default. They’re not ALL crazy. Some need to get reelected in states Biden won, and the corporate and financial sector donors will be learning on them heavily to prevent a default.

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The House “Freedumb!!” Republicans are like the six year old shooting his teacher. No, she doesn’t spring back to life in the next frame.

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Well, they’ve got to find SOMETHING that will allow them to award “FIVE PINOCCHIOS!!” to the Democrats. Fair&Balanced! Both Sides!

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There is no clean way to get out of this.

However, if we settle the debt ceiling once and for all by getting it ruled unconstitutional, it’ll be worth it.

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I’m always open for correction. That wasn’t the source i used btw.
Point being both parties spend excessively. There are places to trim but shitting on folk who depend on Social Security and Medicare is not one of them.
Yes there could be some cost savings in both but killing them as some goober extemists have suggested would engender deep rage among the group that tends to vote most often… seniors. I am one who is retired and Social Security makes up a significant portion of my income. It’s money I paid into Social Security out of every pay check I earned. It feels like the goobers want to rob me and that’s a very very bright red line for me.

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Or as Synderman put it: “Bondholders or voters?”

And which bondholders? Private and public debt are intertwined. Central banks have been propping up the private sector already under accommodative quantitative easing, and now find it hard to unwind. Public debt is about a third of US debt and private debt about two-thirds. Private bondholders might actually be the first hit by the tsunami of default. Needless to say, but McCarthy will deny any blame and say something about kitchen table finances and baby carrots. $US debt is around $70 trillion, so we’re talking real money here.

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“It’ll be worth it.” Worth what? Even the milder predictions of what will happen will mean higher interest rates, at a time when people are already getting hammered with continuing inflation (slower, but still here) and unaffordable rent increases.

People vote their wallets in elections. If the economy sucks even worse in the next two years than it does now, we probably won’t be able to hold the Presidency or reclaim the House. We may even lose the Senate. Is that worth settling the debt ceiling once and for all?

Not to mention gambling on the assumption that the current SCOTUS would even come down on our side. Taking the debt ceiling hostage is a powerful tool for Republicans, who are advancing the agenda of the conservative SCOTUS majority.

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The debt ceiling is already unConstitutional. See amendment 14 section 4.

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No, it’s not an ideal solution. But if the debt ceiling nonsense is truly unconstitutional, the only way to shut this nonsense down is to go that route.

With increasingly maniacal people being elected, this won’t stop with the 2023 incident.

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