Originally published at: Was It Iowa’s Abortion Ban? - TPM – Talking Points Memo
We’re still pretty much where we were last night on that Selzer poll. It’s hard to know what it means or whether it matters. It’s just one poll. The most interesting day-after analysis I’ve seen centers on the fact that an abortion ban went into effect there just in July. And it went into effect…
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IIRC, Selzer’s poll from a few months ago showed Harris behind by five or six points so it can’t just be the abortion ban from the summer one would think. That ban may have made a number of women – older white women maybe more than most since they could remember the ‘good old days’ of coat-hangers – into discomfort and something like Madison Square Garden pushed them over the edge.
Just spit-balling here of course; “I don’t know what could have caused a polling swing that big,” would have been the short answer.
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Harris has run a no-drama campaign and picked up some legacy GOP endorsements, meaning more conservatives are willing to vote for her just to get rid of Trump. It’s a coalition that won’t last past Wednesday, but I’ll take it for now. I hope that’s the main story on Tuesday.
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