While I totally agree with your reasoning, I think this is a 50/50 proposition. The tariffs are basically Mr. Trump’s entire ‘economic policy’. A repudiation would pull the rug out from under the Trump administration, which I think this SCOTUS is particularly loathe to do. I don’t think the merits of the case matter much to them.
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“…the conservative justices would have to contort themselves into knots…”
John Roberts has already unrolled his yoga mat.
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So he can bend over just in time.
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“Article 1 section 8 is pretty clear,” Reinsch said. “Congress gets to set tariffs. If you strictly follow the Constitution, you’re going to have to come out against the president.”
No other person on earth – not even one of several past Presidents, past Cabinet members, or even Representatives in Congress – is talking about the dire emergency that requires extreme federal force against citizens.
Because Trump is making it up, and Republicans are letting him. Just like they’re letting him get away with assaulting children.
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The Five will say it is obligated to extend deference to Trump’s determination that a national emergency exists. The U.S. Court of International Trade must prove that Trump was not justified in making that determination. The Five will also decree that it is not sufficient to find that the IEEPA’s grant of presidential authority to ‘regulate’ imports does not authorize the tariffs imposed by the Executive Orders, it must show that the IEEPA explicitly denies that authority.
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Not a surprise, as it clearly was illegal. SCOTUS will have a hell of a time trying to warp this.
Meanwhile, for your weekend happy, CDC workers congratulate their scientific ex-leaders
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And it will be Yet Another TACO day. Because “ultimatums” never come with this guy.
Back to the Tariff Tidings, it is very likely that, assuming the “Supreme” Court upholds the law, Trump will refuse to refund all that illegally confiscated money. Refunds will not be made until he’s out of office and replaced by a Democrat (if then). It will depend on whether a subsequent administration cares about this “full faith and credit of the United States” thing that used to be so important to us.
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And yada yada yada. Which should be the cue for all Democrats to denounce this corrupt court and call for the impeachment of the Seditious Six, all of whom have enough skeletons to provide Articles against them.
Yeah, I know. It won’t go anywhere with THIS Congress. But Democrats can run on it, say “If we had the votes in the House and votes in the Senate, we could get rid of these partisan hacks”. Not to mention the Wacko in Chief.
Your formulation sounds too much like resigned defeat. We can’t do that.
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The current active judges for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit skews 8-4 Democrat vs. Republican appointed.
Obviously one of the 12 did not participate in the verdict, but given that there were four dissenting votes in the ruling, I think it is probably safe to say that the four Republican appointed judges voted on party lines.
Which doesn’t fill me with overwhelming optimism once this goes to the 6-3 Republican Supreme Court.
Betting that a Republican - ANY Republican - is going to do the right thing is, while not impossible, usually a low percentage wager. And this needs two out of six.
Edit: I stand corrected. The judge that abstained was one of the Republican ones. Judge Pauline Newman, appointed by Reagan. I still doubt that the Supremes will vote to overturn though.
Obama appointee Judge Taranto voted with the Republicans as did Judge Chen, another Obama appointee.
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…if the decision is upheld by the Supremes, wanna bet that the COMPANIES get the refunds, not the consumers that ultimately paid the tariff???
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Hadn’t noticed that they give a shit.
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“I’m very concerned,” Maine Sen. Susan Collins swooned.
“Don’t look at me,” said Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski as she prepared show the assembled press how to properly filet an undersized king salmon.
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What argument was given in the dissent?
No, it’s hard core cynicism, but also a clear statement that I have absolutely no confidence in the Court to properly interpret and apply the law. As you said yourself, they are the Seditious Six and are immune to impeachment.
I see a lot of courts martial in that picture.
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If they can find 4 judges who know they don’t get to rewrite the law to go along, the seditious six won’t hesitate for a moment.
I expect the Supremes’ sold-out 6 will blithely indulge Dear Leader. What’s it gonna be, Mr. Leo?
That reasoning (pulling the rug out on Trump’s “economic policy”) works if there are no other options for him to continue the tariffs. However, I keep reading that there are other statutes he could use to justify continuing them. It’s even mentioned by someone quoted in the TPM article.
I haven’t heard how that would work, or how successful it would be. But if the SCOTUS knows he’ll just switch to some other statute and continue the tariffs, then it would be much easier to rule against him.
ETA: And of course his other option would be to strong-arm Congress into approving the tariffs. I don’t think he’d do that though. He’s on a King Donald power trip right now. He wants these tariffs imposed by himself, personally.
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Wouldn’t it be true that, by October, the ramifications of the tariffs will be clear for all to see? Empty shelves at Walmart, Target and other low-cost retailers that depend on cheap imports to sustain themselves? Christmas stuff should be expected any day now and certainly evident by October.
We are already seeing the lies on the state of the economy: low unemployment and low inflation. My customers at the store are complaining more and more about the bill I present them with at my register. Either that exists or my entire customer base is mental. Nothing in between.
My point here is that, by the October deadline, the economic impact will be much more evident in ways the government cannot suppress. Physically empty shelves will enhance the position that these tariffs are not a good thing.
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