We, as a nation, aren’t there yet. For a number of reasons, and yes, the paucity of testing is part of the issue.
But it also has to do that we are starting to see new “hot spots” developing, while the earlier hot spots haven’t started subsiding yet. That leads me to believe that once that NYC, for example, finally does start to curve, that curve is going to be wiped out by surges in places like Miami, Atlanta, Boston, etc.
And that pattern is probably going to continue for quite some time. The very nature of how our country is geographically setup, combined with its size, is going to make it very difficult for us to see the sort of “curving” that exists in places like Italy now.
Add to that, that such a pattern, stretching out for months, will be an economic calamity which will force decision trees like “Do I starve/go homeless or do I risk catching the virus?”, which in turn will mean a breakdown in social distancing/self quarantining…adding additional pressures to keep the trajectory straight line.