Neither Manchin or Sinema is up for re-election until 2024. Assuming that Manchin even runs for Senate again (there has been a lot of talk of running for Governor for quite some time).
Voting to acquit won’t do a thing for Jones, nor is McConnell likely to offer him anything. Republicans want that Alabama seat back, and they are going to get it. My feeling all along has been Jones (who voted for more witnesses) is going to vote for removal and just not worry about it.