The Supreme Court agreed on Friday to hear three separate cases in which President Trump is fighting to block investigations into his personal and business finances, including his tax returns.
Shit. Fucking shit. I was hoping that Roberts would decide to just let the case rest on the Court of Appeals decission. But I guess the “conservative” thing (as in actually conservative, not the current authoritarian/Putin version of it) was to set it for quick argument.
The reality is that Roberts needs to look like he is not working for the democrats, and he probably hopes to get a 9-0 vote, and a quick opinion. My guess is that March hearing was the compromise. I.e. We hear it quick, but we hear it.
p.s. I don’t draw any view of what will happen when it hits the Courts. It would have been difficult to have just said no to cert (the supreme court is basically having to decide between co-equal branches of government) and they like to look like they are important. So I don’t draw too much from this.
Also, it is really hard for them to say no to the release, since they will have prevented the information coming out during the impeachment process. I think Robert’s knows how this will all play in history, and he will not want to be on the wrong side. Also vote with Trump and the Court’s legitimacy is gone. Totally gone.
My bet remains that Trump looses either 5-4 or 6-3 (Kav voting against Trump, to try to put some distance between him and Trump) or that it is 9-0.
p.s.s. They just posted the order:
Note that that quick of an argument is really unusual. Calendar is not yet out, but will be likely end of March.
It’s hard for me to believe these things can be kept secret. How much are Trump’s tax returns worth? How much would WaPo or NYT pay for them? Someone has them.
Here’s an obvious prediction. The Supreme Court will rule against Trump on June 30, which will be too late to make a difference. This’ll apply the case to future (read “Democratic”) presidents.
My bet is they don’t issue the decision until after the election. Then if the Democrats win the Presidency, all bets are off and Presidents will be able to be investigated at will. If Trump pulls off another steal, then he wins everything. MeThinks that the 5 Conservatives will have 2 different opinions ready to go.
If by some chance the timing demands the decision be before the election Roberts et al. will find a way to push it until after November, just to hedge their bets.
I will repeat my prediction: Roberts will find some way to look like he’s upholding the law, but which will remand the cases for further proceedings in the lower courts. Toss in Trump’s inevitable appeals of those further proceedings, and this will all get punted past the 2020 election.
They won’t hear it until March which means another 3 months for decisions -unless they are announced early. I am not holding my breath but Roberts may surprise us.