We start the day at 246k Corona Virus cases, 250k if you include the totals from the VA and the Department of Defense.
The overall hit rate is 18.33%. The hit rate this week is 24.1%. The fatality rate has crept up to 2.4% (awful for a developed country). We have 500k test results this week, which is the highest total for a week that we’ve done, but that just puts us at Germany’s level. We’re 4x bigger than Germany. Our testing has to be 1 mill per week at minimum, and really 2 mill per week if we want to make real headway against 'Rona.
We are testing obviously sick people so the hit rate is higher, but that hit rate tells you that we have a lot of very sick people, which means that there are many more who have the virus who are not obviously sick. A Chinese study suggested that testing is undercounting the actual number of infected persons by one-third due to false positives. That would mean the actual number of infected persons among those tested would be over 400k higher or 650k. I’ve had the working assumption that the actual number of infected persons is 3x to 5x more than the confirmed number from testing, so that would be put us in the million-ish range.
April will likely be the worst month in American history since April 1968 or the height of WW II.