When Trump declared tariff war on the world, he gave China an amazing opportunity to forge new trade relationships with everyone else seeking to reduce their dependence on US markets. And China and everyone else have been busy doing that.
3 Likes
I did say, “on the theory that the US can’t do both things at the same time.” Doctrine calls for the ability to fight on two fronts, but doctrine and capacity aren’t the same thing. I think the military could do it, although munitions are looking to be an issue right now. Drone and missile attacks consume a lot of air defense munitions.
ICE is already well/over funded.
Use some of their money.
2 Likes
Me to! 
Fair enough, but I still think it’s possible for the US military to do both. However, we need to clarify a bit.
If China wanted to reduce Taiwan to rubble in the same way as Russia is doing to Ukraine or Iran is doing to all its Middle Eastern neighbors right now, you’d be correct we wouldn’t be able to stop it. Iran, which has a far smaller capability than China, is clearly able to overwhelm the missile/drone defense systems we have.
However, China doesn’t want to turn Taiwan into a smoking crater, they want to control it. That means boots on the ground, which our current naval and air capabilities are more than sufficient to prevent. A naval invasion is hard even under the best of conditions and we’d certainly be able to make it not the best of conditions for China.
There are two ways China gets Taiwan back:
- Trump sells them out, saying we won’t defend Taiwan anymore in a deal for something Trump wants (maybe cutting off of Chinese support for Iran as the war drags on).
- Taiwan voluntarily agrees to become a Special Autonomous Region (SAR), like Hong Kong and Macau, under Beijing.
The latter would be unthinkable during normal times, but with the American-led world order being dismantled under Trump, it at least becomes plausible.
1 Like
Apparently this time, not even the shipping insurers were given advance warning.
More about how the whole shipping and war risk insurance thing works from this guy (about 10 min into the video):
2 Likes
Let’s not forget that domestic counterintelligence is the responsibility of the FBI, not DHS. Of course, the Bureau has its own problems, what with the catastrophic loss of honorable and competent agents, and a director who thinks the job is just a nonstop party of taxpayer-funded junkets, but the whole “you’re leaving us defenseless against the terrorists in a time of war” attack line is just so much bullshit.
4 Likes
I think the Chinese are engaging in wishful thinking if they really believe that the US won’t be able to block an amphibious invasion of Taiwan at any time in the foreseeable future. The navy currently has 11 CVN (nuclear aircraft carriers). Two are deployed in the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea, leaving 9 doing other stuff like training up for deployment, being deployed in West Pacific (that would be George Washington with the Seventh Fleet right now), deployed in the Med (Sixth Fleet), etc.
If tensions ramped up between China and Taiwan, we’d see more carriers deployed with the Seventh Fleet.
1 Like
4 weeks becomes 4 months becomes 4 years.
2 Likes
Doesn’t Iran claim to have Epstein files they would release if attacked?
This administration can’t even do one thing at a time without screwing it up.
1 Like
I’m glad I filled up my tank over the weekend.
1 Like
And without a clear and attainable exist strategy, we know from Afghanistan it can go on for geneations, if allowed to.
Kash’s leadership is, in fact, the, “you’re leaving us defenseless against the terrorists in a time of war.”
2 Likes
Caving on dhs wont make any magats happy and standing firm makes no difference with them either, they will hate dems… somehow.
Staying the course on dhs will appeal to, hmm idk, maybe democrats? And indies?
And using it to point out the failures of gop leadership at every stage of this is the rignt focus
They’ve even screwed up the Iran war they chose: it has become a regional war. I note here without comment that one of our attack subs sank an Iranian naval vessel off Sri Lanka yesterday.
It’s going to help China tremendously. I don’t think the 4th Reich thinks that far ahead.
1 Like