In recent election cycles, a new power dynamic has driven Democrats to victory and captured the attention of those who track voting patterns: the “blueing” of the suburbs.
Anything that comes to Robert’s court that upholds VRA will be voted out. Robert began his legal career under Regan as point man to do just that. Nothing has changed he will completely neuter VRA.
Demographics is destiny.
But the issue of Gerrymandering will remain until Dem voters get serious with down ticket and statewide offices. Having courts backstop egregious maps is but a start. The real work will be in winning state assemblies in blue and purple rich states.
Awkward headline. I think the point is that the population growth of minorities in the South has reached the tipping point to where the Republicans can’t effectively gerrymander districts without imposing an illegal racial gerrymander. They are dependent on rogue, ideological judges to simply ignore the law and precedent on the books and there are signs that there may not be enough such judges to do that.
What does that mean? In the best case scenario for the country (and the Dems) the Dems would end up with nearly 240 seats that Biden won in 2020 in the new congressional map. Right now, Ds are trending towards 230-233 (again a product of demographic and coalition change). However, the Alabama case that was decided in favor of the plaintiffs where the court has required that a 2nd black majority district be redrawn could be the trigger that topples the GOP’s racist wall in the south and turns the region blue.
The SCOTUS will have the final say on the AL case, but it should be decided quickly. The GOP has committed a blatant violation of the voting rights act by drawing an impermissible gerrymander in the opinion of the lower court. That panel included 2 Trumper judges.
If the SCOTUS overturns the decision, it would essentially have to overturn the voting rights act in its entirety, and while that would be a temporary blow, it will not stop the march of the new coalition to dominance b/c the GOP doesn’t have the numbers. Overturning the voting rights act would be an extreme move that this court is fully capable of, but it’s something that I think Roberts will be wary of and will counsel his cohorts not to do it.
If SCOTUS upholds the decision, then that decision will be applied to North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas (and possibly, Tennessee), Dems would probably gain another seat in each of these states and that would push the Dems up to around the 240 mark, which is about the number of seats they held after the 2018 election.
Amazing the casual nature of our narrative describing people who wish to take away the vote of their fellow citizens because of race, color, ethnicity.
(1) The practice is wrong
(2) The casual, blase nature of accepting it is wrong
In MO they are trying to move the state from 6-2 to 7-1 by erasing Emanuel Cleaver’s seat over in KC.
And daaaamn!, the MO State website still list Lacy Clay Jr as a US Representative.
MO leg agreed to a 5-2-1 map. It will be 6-2 for this year, but may end up as 5-3 over the course of the decade.
The map of a single legislative district in Alabama is not going to turn the South blue. In fact, I rather doubt that the South will ever be monolithically blue because the coalitions that make up the two major parties are likely to evolve in ways that we cannot reliably predict. Like, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alabama politics in 2072 is dominated by white people demanding that the federal government keep its damn hands out of their Obamacare versus black people bitching about their property taxes, all while President Zuckerberg wages war against the remnants of the European Union.
No election is sui generis, but they’re all kinda sui generis.
I think after the kav’s confirmation hearing, he’ll never ever vote for anything that helps Dems politically.
I don’t think accepting is the right word. If you have to expressly say it is wrong, then those who don’t already know that won’t care. I like the words cheating and dishonorable.
As climate goes, for example, it’s fairly likely that whilst imagining 2072 politics in whatever is left of the US then, we should consider a stone age society for most of us. The Zuckerberg set will have their tiny Sangra Las scattered about without need for political parties.
The “Zuckerberg set” will be shot by their own security details for being a worthless drain on limited resources in 50 years.
Instead of wasting, say, $84 million on Amy McGrath losing pathetically to Mitch McConnell, someone in charge please direct $42,000 each to 1000 Democratic state legislature candidates and 1000 progressive school board candidates.
Tennessee is going for 8-1
Just as a note, “gerryrigged” is not synonymous with “gerrymandered.”
OT
So much criming…
…that much of it is falling through the cracks…
While Senator Grassley calls for “moving forward to unite the country”…
…while TFG continues to refuse to concede…
Let’s not forget these little gems:
I hope DOJ and/or Jan6th committee is looking into Grassley too. Looks like he was definitely in on the plot. It was his staff that walked back his comments.
This is why the US is moving down to a “Flawed Democracy” in the Economist’s Democracy Index.
And lets check in with folks at a barber shop in Los Angeles!
Also OT
Neil young told Spotify “They can have Rogan or Young. Not both.”
Joe Rogan has been spreading vaccination lies and disinformation for a long time now.
Neil has had enough. He says he’ll pull all his music off Spotify, unless they fire Joe Rogan.
Joni Mitchell supports Neil, says she’s leaving too.
Neil Young fans who have Spotify accounts are PISSED OFF at Spotify.
Canadians trying to save American lives. Natch.
Spotify stock has been tanking since Neil’s announcement.
Spotify loses $4 billion in market value following Neil Young controversy
Joni Mitchell removing her music from Spotify: ‘I stand with Neil Young’
Spotify stock is tanking!!!
It’s been tanking since November.
And there was a ton of sell-off broadly in the market this last week.
The attributions of all the movement to Neal Young is not really supported by the overall trends.
