Trump is the more likely candidate to experience this fate. Bernie still has a nice jump shot, Joe takes the train, Bloomberg is fit, while Trump slugs down shakes and fries on a golf cart every week-end.
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Disclaimer: I have been very active in Democratic Politics since 1968, and I see a looming disaster ahead if Bernie is the Democratic candidate.
I see a repeat of 1972, where George McGovern was nominated (by people like me at the time) who wanted immediate revolution (with the, unknown at the time, substantial financial and covert support of the Republican Party and the Committee to Re-Elect the President.) McGovern was the candidate Nixon WANTED to run against, as he was the weakest of the Democratic Candidates by far and Ed Muskie could have defeated Nixon and Nixon knew it, so he worked hard behind the scenes (with the help of his vast support in the MSM) to torpedo Muskie, and boost McGovern to be the Candidate.
Being 18 and naive, and staunchly anti-war, I heartily supported McGovern, and campaigned for him strongly. McGovern won the nomination, we were all elated, and in the General Election, he was absolutely destroyed in the worst electoral defeat in Presidential elections.
Nixon won 49 states, and the rest, as they say, is History.
Mark Twain said: “History does not repeat itself, but it frequently Rhymes”
I see the exact same thing happening again in 2020 if Bernie is the nominee.
Think about it, which major candidate has Trump attacked the LEAST? Bernie.
That is because he is desperate to run against him, knowing he can steamroll him in the General (and he will too.)
If Bernie wins the nomination, I will vote for him (I have a long history of supporting lost causes) but I am convinced he will go down in a spectacular defeat due to his ego, and refusal to ever compromise (Cue the Billy Joel song: “Angry Young Man”)
I expect if Bernie wins the nomination he will do something monumentally stupid like choosing AOC as his VP candidate, and tripling down on his ridiculous shouty-finger-wagging campaign promises, alienating the vast majority of the country.
I’m not very supportive of Biden, seeing him as the “least offensive candidate” to the majority of the country, and my personal choice (Klobuchar) doesn’t really seem to have a chance to break through (especially with all the scurrilous false attacks on her lately by the far left) in what seems to be a preview of how Bernie will campaign, i.e. Scorched Earth. My way or the Highway.
It’s a LONG primary season, and I expect Bernie to win in Iowa, and New Hampshire (he better win there) and lose big in South Carolina and the following states (sound familiar? 2016 anyone?)
The divisions in the Democratic party will be exacerbated by a heavily-funded Social Media campaign by the Trump Party (you can already see it now) and their almost inexhaustible supply of MONEY.
I expect if Biden wins the nomination, he wins the election by a hair, 51%-%48. If Bernie wins the nomination, he loses big: 55%-40% with low participation.
We shall see. Nobody has actually voted yet, and in this environment, ANYTHING can happen (I hope.)
There is only ONE candidate I do NOT want to have to support: Bloomberg.
He is a Republican in all things except a few social stances, and was a staunch supporter of G.W. Bush in 2004. He is also one of the .01% and is NOT your friend.
OK, enough rambling…
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And that’s my point. This type of reporting is extremely shallow. It doesn’t matter all that much who is “in first”, because the first place winner isn’t going to walk away with all of the delegates, or even a majority of the delegates.
This is the really bad side of “horserace” coverage. “Win” Iowa, and the media paints a story of “momentum”. The most likely scenario however is, we will still have 4 people all pretty much with the same amount of delegates. Hell, even Klobuchar could very likely pick up some delegates tomorrow night. Yang is the one you list who is in danger of walking away from Iowa with zero delegates, and even that’s not a given.
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Obama would stump for someone, but he’s made clear why he would:
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Yeah, because he cares about the country.
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Well, Obama is right. Bernie is NOT a Democrat, and never has been.
I don’t understand why someone who is NOT a registered Democrat can be allowed to hijack the Democratic Party to run their own, non-democratic campaign, but that’s the way the rules are written.
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I think it’s equally likely to cause a backlash or, perhaps, a recalculation among voters in the next states who may then coalesce around a candidate other than Bernie or Biden. That is my hope.
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Given their age, their VP pick will be important. I think if any of those three are the nominee that is tricky…
Because, not only does the VP have to demonstrate that they could be president on day one… (or be the nominee in their own right if a medical need arises)
But if any of these folks are the nominee they also have ticket balancing to consider.
Biden or Bernie should be smart enough to know that they need to pick someone that makes the voters of the other more able to cross over and support to ticket. (ie, Biden picks a More leftward Bernie Supporter and Bernie pick someone as a nod to the moderates.
It could very well be a Bernie election yields a centrist president a year into the term, and vice versa if Biden…
Interesting conundrum…
I hope Liz breaks through…
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My point is Obama has a responsibility, he will be very careful with it…
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Also, saw this elsewhere:
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I actually think the main reason is because he sees Bernie supporters as the most likely to not vote in the General, or even better for Trump, vote 3rd party (which is absolutely essential for Trump to squeak out another EC victory).
The GOP has a playbook for every candidate, they ARE going to smear and attack non stop. That should just be accepted as a given, regardless of the nominee.
That’s not an option. She isn’t old enough to be President, and is thus disqualified from being VP. This does however raise what I think would be an interesting debate question (pretty much every four years I think it would be an interesting question, but never gets asked). What sort of person do you Mr/Mrs. Candidate, envision being your running mate? What sort of qualifications are you seeking in the VP, and for you Cabinet positions? (because obviously, nobody is going to actually name a person this far out. Or they shouldn’t anyway).
This is actually something that provides a lot of insight into how they envision their administration, and, as opposed to debating details of a heath care that Congress decides, is something that the President has almost complete control over.
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Is that a written rule tho? I think that’s a mistake by DNC in 2016. It might also have something to do with the harmful decision by VT Dem party which allows him to run as a Dem in primary and then as an independent in general.
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The undecideds in every state are almost criminally being ignored in most polling. There are usually more people “Undecided” than they are for any front runner. Good news for ground operations, bad news for pollsters.
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If Bernie can’t dispose of the “socialism” brand by the convention, as much as I believe it is a McCarthyite Red Herring-he is being unreasonable by introducing “socialism” into the campaign of every Democrat in this election. This is a major distraction, and the party and its candidates should not be required to shoulder this responsibility. Say what you will about this being a worthy objective, It is too complicated an issue to be resolved simply by reducing it to a binary choice between Trump and Him. People are supporting him and his policies. They want him to be the candidate of the Democratic Party. If he won’t join the party in a collective effort to realize his principles of “Medicare for All” he should lose in the primaries or withdraw.
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I don’t expect Obama to say anything one way or the other about ANYBODY until the Democratic Convention.
There will be lots of reporting claiming he HAS “said something” but none of it will be true (and they all will be attempts by the Trumpists and their Russian supporters to drive a wedge between the Democratic factions.)
Get ready for a multitude of very well done “Deep Fakes” of Obama saying something negative about everybody, especially Bernie, especially on Facebook.
The “Dirty Tricks” in 2020 are going to make 2016 look positively provincial by comparison.
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Butt hurt anarchists refusing to vote for nominee…Sanders
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Its a losing proposition for the Democratic party, I agree.
Forget the word, simply argue the merits of the policy. Trying to “reown” the word is a meaningless debate to have and simply costs us votes at the end of the day.
I had this debate with one of your DEC officers sometime last summer. And within a week of having it, it came back and agreed with me, after watching how Fox and the right wing was already making hay out of screaming “socialism” everywhere.
If you think single payer is the way to go, then make a compelling case to the American voters about why it is. And a compelling case does not include (A) any mention of the world socialism (B) any mention of another country with a single payer…especially if that country is often called “socialist”, but not exclusively. Because Americans will vote for American ideas, not for European or South Asian or even Canadian ideas. Yep, its shallow, but its also true.
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Please, this is Iowa. These caucuses are important only because they are first in the primary season. As to Mr. Sanders, I have to admire his pluck but there is no way the general would elect him to the presidency.
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He’s caucused with the Dems his entire career in Congress. And the simple fact is Democratic voters really like him.
Trump was a democrat for like 90% of his adult life, but R voters like him more than lifetime R’s. Bernie isn’t even switching sides. And he’s running a pretty democratic campaign. Pretty sure improving the safety net has been a long time dem position.
The people who vote for the party tend to decide who represents them, at least when they’re able to choose for themselves.
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