Yeah, but that came out of nowhere. Bernie’s campaign didn’t really appear like a legitimate threat until he was so close in Iowa and took NH. Before that, the nomination was a foregone conclusion. Bernie’s momentum, name recognition and money have all shown up WAY earlier in 2020 than last time around. He’s about to take the first caucus and primary as well, which will snowball into more momentum and money. We’ll see if it’s enough. Personally, I think Biden is a weak candidate (which is why he’s failed running for president so many times). Wouldn’t be certain his advantages will hold like Hillary’s did.
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I love TT; he’s so brilliant. His ability to catch the physical (and personality of course ) likenesses so subtly are amazing.
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Yeah, no where, expect in polls for like half a year.
and NH was due to the overlap of him being a Senator next door for decades.
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If what you see is what you get for Bernie, because he has no significant second choices, the key to building his margin in the subsequent rounds appears to be to driving Warren below the 15% threshold wherever possible. To the degree other candidates are doing this, they may be helping Bernie when
they continue to slam Warren.
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No…Iowa matters for a lot of other people.
Klobuchar has to break into the top 4 and actually garner delegates, or he campaign is over. Buttigieg isn’t in a much better situation.
Warren cannot really afford a bad showing, either…she isn’t polling well in NH, and a 4th or distant 3rd place in Iowa would probably sink her in NH, and a bad showing in her backyard will be disastrous for any hopes of going forward.
But one very, very key thing that the media is going to entirely miss, as nearly every pollster is missing in their “punditry”, is that Iowa’s delegates are going to be split. Most likely split 4 ways. There are 41 delegates up for grabs, nobody is going to get 41 delegates. Or 30 delegates. Its extremely doubtful anyone will get 20 delegates.
This is a very important concept to keep in mind when people talk about “who won” Iowa.
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If Joe doesn’t win, expect Bloomberg’s support to climb. It’s going to climb anyways, with his delicious name-calling. That’s pretty irresistible, ya gotta admit.
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Yes NH was expected. But he wasn’t expected to do that well in Iowa.
And what are you talking about the polls for half a year? She was up almost 30 points 6 months out and was double digits until right before the actual voting started on that graphic you linked to.
He certainly knows how to handle Trump.
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I was mainly just talking about the Biden vs bernie, since that was what was mention in the post. Unless something major happens Buttigieg and Klobuchar, Yang etc will likely drop out before super Tuesday or right after it. What Warren ends up getting in Iowa will matter though, she needs to stay in the top 4.
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Just saying its not like he was polling 20 percent then all of a sudden got 49, he was polling 40 something and got 49. He has done better in caucus then in regular voting. This time around though there are less caucus’s.
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Agreed. Klobuchar will kill Mayor Pete in Iowa and I’m sorry to say he is starting to look a lot like Dukakis 2.0. I hope i’m wrong.
What happens if Democrats nominate one of the geezers (Biden, Bernie or Bloomberg) and then he has a heart attack or a stroke between Labor Day and Election Day? The answer to that question is quite simple: Trump wins.
Democrats ignore that real possibility at our–and the nation’s–peril.
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I know…
I think each time she pops up for comment Liz loses a fence sitter to Bernie.
Obama won’t do that… if he gets worried he will stump for someone, not against
Me too. I think she most easily is acceptable to both wings of the party.
Hillary and Bernie dead enders who still hold 2016 animosity can find find something they like.
Sadly I agree. It’s too bad… I presume it will. E hamfisted as it was in 2016 and really make things worse.
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Did you catch what Bloomberg’s campaign advisor O’Brien said yesterday:
“I’ve been asked a lot… what’s it like to be in Donald Trump’s head so much? What I’ve said to people is when you get inside Donald Trump’s head, all you’re going to discover that you find there is a putter, a cheeseburger, a porn video, and somebody else’s credit card.”
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I’ve already resigned myself to accepting the fact that Sanders might win the nomination this year. I guess we’ll know in a few weeks, though.
I don’t know the legal setup of replacing a candidate that late, but i think Dems would rally to someone else to take out drump, the only issue would be which person.
If trump is reelected, expect SS and Medicare/Medicaid to be gutted… then we’ll be there.
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Has Bloomberg shown any sign of senility or did he have some medical issues before? He hasn’t been vetted but seems healthier than the other two. Not sure if that’ll still be true if he gets more scrutiny.
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This is a poll I can get behind:
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Doesn’t seem right, i don’t see anything in there about his racism.