I’d be thrilled. And surprised. Tribal polarization is much more complete in 2020 than it was in 2006/2008. Edit to add: Thanks, largely, to social media.
Yup.
He has lost McConnell, Pence, the military, the intelligence community, and apparently, based on the story about not being able to reach him for over 3 hours yesterday, people on his own staff in the WH.
His paranoia is going to be shooting through the roof.
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McConnell is looking at a possibility of a rout. They could (probably won’t, but right now, is within the realm of possibility) lose as many as 12 Senate seats.
They will lose even more House seats.
And losing a lot of Senate seats this cycle, is very bad, because in 2022 they are once again defending more seats than the Dems are…20 R seats vs. 12 Dem seats. All of ours are safe seats, too…while they have FL, NC, PA and WI to defend, among others that are a little harder, but not impossible.
Two cycles of significant losses, and the republicans are a powerless rump party in the Senate with a Dem supermajority.
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P(a) > 0 is “within the realm of possibility”. “Probably won’t” is back in the realm of likely outcomes. My bet is that most of the Rs who might bail on Trump are going to feel compelled to support the tribe down the ticket. To prevent Biden from imposing Sharia law or some such. Put another way, they might abandon Donald, but they will stand up for the ideology he represented.
Edit to add: If the Blue team has unprecedented GOTV success, then what you wishfully predict may come true. Normally, I’d say this was unlikely because of COVID health risks and GOP efforts to reduce the number of voters. But there is nothing about the present more significant to this situation than its unprecedented nature.
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I see Trump now iin a fugue state. He’s going through the motions of being POTUS, but his mind – what there is of one – is a million miles away. The pandemic, bounty-gate are just the two most egregious results of his total inattentiveness and dereliction of duty. We’ve all been at a meeting or social event where were smiled at all the right times, exchanged small talk, nodded, chuckled but we were spiritually somewhere else and we just wanted this awful thing to end. Sometimes it’s so bad we make a plausible excuse just to get the fuck out of there.
50-50 he’ll resign and when he does it will be impulsively.
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Roseanne Roseannadanna said, “It’s always something”.
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He ALWAYS doubles down.
True, but the person who was saying this in May and now, is also the guy who supported ‘reopen protests’.
It’s his right, but he had to have known that backing quick reopens, wasn’t going to end well.
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Governor Beshear issued the stay at home order on 3/25/20.
April 22, not even a month.
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If Moscow Michela worries so much about us, why doesn’t he actually do something. Like pass a law? Isn’t he involved with that somehow?
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According to the story they fed the Republicans staff kept him out of the loop for months.
You’re 100,000 lives too late, m&%#!f&*$!!!
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I don’t suppose we’ll get this lucky…
At which point the curve was still going up.
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No stigma in wearing a mask? I would say that we will be closer to ending this nightmare when there is a stigma in NOT wearing a mask, along with a fine and possible jail time for the most persistent offenders.
Alabama. Not so much, but I am hopeful we can get to at least 50. With the White House we get the tie breaker and the majority.
Got this from WaPo
Primary in Kentucky for Senate, 22% of precincts in, Amy McGrath is leading with 46,000+ votes to Booker’s 42,000.
Moscow Mitch has 92,000+ votes from the Rethugs.
Haven’t seen this covered here. Wonder if there’s a remote chance of getting rid of the criminal?
Way to get right on an important problem, Mitch, now that we are 2.5 million infections and over 125,000 deaths into it. Glad to get your help. Only months ago I saw some estimates of what a worse case scenario would be, and we are really close to those numbers. What do you say to all of those who have died or who have suffered incredible health problems, or who are unable to afford the basics of life, when no leading Republican has until now stepped up to support the simplest step to preventing infections? What is your excuse, and, for that matter, the excuse of Mike Pence?
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There are case studies to support that. The Kentucky election where they elected the Dem governor and republicans all down ticket as a very good example.
But the current polling data we have, is actually pointing the other way. Trump is outperforming down ballot Senators in numerous states (SC,KY, KS, IA, AZ, CO, …NC and GA they are essentially the same). Its a curious development, that might balance out to more of what you are suggesting…but its not where voters are today.
I was referring to 2022 with that comment.
Yes, Alabama is probably a lost for us, but again…we have something like 10-12 republican seat races that are competitive vs. that one of ours in this cycle.