U.S. states and countries worldwide are cautiously relaxing restrictions while watching for potential spikes in coronavirus infections. Getting the timing right is complicated. Disease trackers note the impossibility of seeing clearly what’s happening without widespread testing.
14 days to three weeks. Possibly sooner.
Good luck on getting people to self quarantine in States that are wide open now.
And much less, to wear masks.
Only if testing occurs, otherwise the number of infections and deaths are hearsay.
Agree, and since we now know that just talking can allow water particles to linger for 15 minutes, masks are even more important.
How Long Does It Take To Know Whether Reopening Causes A Spike In COVID Cases?
about two scaramuccis
The easiest way to tell is to watch Fox News. If they don’t report it then you can just assume it’s happened.
About when the Covidiots start claiming it was all Hillary’s fault.
Or Obama’s. Or FDR.
Or anyone else on the planet other than the Orange Menace.
Trump’s Catch-22 - he doesn’t want testing because the numbers make him look bad, but testing is the only way to safely reopen.
So places will reopen unsafely, causing a spike in illness, and then more testing, more bad numbers, and still a crappy economy. A merry-go-round of his own making. Too bad it causes mass suffering and death for everyone else.
They’re already doing that. Next up: How Reagan should be on the dime.
At some state levels there may be adequate records to indicate increases or decreases in the number of cases. Nationally by design the numbers are crap, so there is nothing to compare data to.
Science tells us 5 to 14 days for infection from exposure. Death or resolution usually10 to 21 days thereafter.
Testing is the key to know but as we are all painfully aware trump hates bad numbers and so cares not for doing the right thing anymore.
When I am out I wear a mask. What others do is their affair so I keep distant as possible. But I stay home unless food is needed or some other very necessary thing is needed. People will be stupid, it’s human nature to be idiotic. Logic goes against reelection anyway. Trump would sacrifice America to get reelected because that way he runs the clock out on several indictments as I understand it. Now I could easily be wrong on that point but I think SDNY has paper on him that is time sensitive.
Dependings on the underlying rate of exposure. R will soon be over 1 in most of these states, but the question is what base you are starting with AND how many folks actually go out.
While the bars show as packed in photos of WI, my guess is that a lot of places are not open, and lots of people will not go out.
Assuming someone gets infected today, well they may show in 5-10 days, meanwhile they infect another group of people in 5-10 days, so you are then looking at the 2-3 weeks.
In a state like GA with high underlying rates of infection, you will build much quicker, than say a state like Wyoming. And in a place like WI, the infections have been in points like meat packing plants AND in cities. Social distancing has kept the spread mostly out of rural/small town WI.
And since social distancing is likely to remain to a great extend in most urban areas, regardless of what 4 fascists on the WI Sup. Ct. say, it will take a while to feed out into rural/small town WI. So there I would expect to see the outbreak really start to spike in more like a month, not two weeks.
And that is the problem. W/o testing, you wait for the cases to spike and it is already out of control…
And P.S. This is a probably a good place to start on “where will we see spikes”: just overlay this with areas that are reopening w/o a plan…
i think you nailed it. one of the problems in looking at totals for the country is that New York and the environs were so blazing hot for quite awhile. now that those numbers are coming down some, you have to look at other places that were late coming to the party. and then you’ve got fucking Florida. they seem to feel that body count info isn’t in the public’s need to know. i’m calling WTF on FLA.
you are right Darr. that fucker is so all over the place on testing. a couple of days ago Trump was telling us that we were the biggest, baddest testers. today tests are so overrated. testing theory is now the whim of the day. i can’t stand Donald J Trump.
not only that but contact tracing is non-existent in many places. so we are pretty well fucked for the duration. i’m hoping the warm weather might cut us some slack but that sure feels like wishful thinking.
Until election day what I can do is not capitalize his name or the office he holds since that’s a form of respect. And I do not use the name of his office or his name in the same sentence. Also any paper money I get in change that has Steven Mnuchin’s name on it goes to my bank to be exchanged for any other bill with any other Secretary of the Treasury’s name on it. And I vent here.
I hate trump with a deep and abiding feeling. He is stupid, arrogant, a narcissist, mentally unsound. And that’s for starters. He has been consistent in making every wrong decision possible in this pandemic making him the single worst president in our country’s entire history. And millions of people still will vote for him which is an indictment of us all.
Every day here sins early April has been 90 or better and our case numbers continue to rise. So slack ain’t gonna happen.