I think he’s going in the direction of being a rapid cycler, going between seething, to whining like a toddler whines. His meds ain’t gonna help him much anymore…
May it be so.
There is more than a little ticket-splitting in Texas, and it should redound to the benefit of Colin Allred. Roughly 1 in 11 of Greg Abbott’s 2018 voters saw Ted Cruz’s name on the Senate line, muttered “Fuck that guy,” and voted for Beto O’Rourke.
That’s a funny end result after his tiresome “Let’s see how badly it’s going for Dems today” commentary over the past week.
I can’t remember what Josh said precisely on his editor post a couple of weeks back, but I found myself nodding at the assessment. I, too, find myself respecting Ralston’s insights into Nevada politics and voting tendencies. But, boy, he can be dramatic and a bit high on his own fumes.
It is Republicans like Cheney, stating they will vote for Kamala Harris, that give rank and file Republicans permission to vote for Kamala Harris. It is not the reason why they do it, not the motivator per se, it is the reason they have that it is OK given their conscience.
Liz Cheney could become an important example that parties are to a great extent built on what politicians say and do, not mere vessels of what constituents want.
[Ralston] predicts that Harris will get 48.5 percent and Trump 48.2 percent.
He also thinks that incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) wins by a relatively easy 5 percentage points, and that her election will be called on Tuesday night.
I don’t know much at all about Nevada state politics, but those two items together seem odd to me. Is it ticket-splitting, or is it low-propensity Trumpheads just voting for their orange overlord and leaving the rest of the ballot unvoted?
“He just released his final Nevada predictions, which come on the heels of an early vote that has really freaked out Democrats.”
I’ve not looked at Nevada, but Georgia has a similar thing going on (you can dig deeper at georgiavotes.com.) So, looking at 2020’s “day of” voters who have early voted, you’ll note a much higher percentage of white day ofs crossed over than black day ofs. That info pairs nicely with the counties where early voting has solidly outstripped 2020’s early voting–lots of white folks in those spots. So while it’s certainly a plus for Trump to have banked votes early, it probably won’t move overall vote totals that much. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ralston sees something similar in NV.
“There are two possibilities here: Either we’re going to see ticket-splitting on a level we haven’t in recent cycles… or at least one of these sets of numbers is off.”
A third possibility is undervoting. There may be some Republicans who will just not vote in the Governor’s race in NC, although I’m not sure how many Rs are that principled. They’re voting for a philandering felon for President, why shouldn’t they vote for a Black Nazi porn freak for Governor?
The GOP Senate candidate in Nevada has been a really poor campaigner and hasn’t connected well with the state Republican establishment, so they haven’t done anything to assist him.