WASHINGTON (AP) — A stronger than expected jobs report could further scramble an already uncertain picture for passing a fifth and possibly final coronavirus aid bill. The positive statistics are feeding the wait-and-see approach of the White House and its GOP allies in Congress.
I figured that was the point of those bullshit numbers. Only 20.9 million people are unemployed but 29.9 million drew unemployment during the same period. I’m sure it’s just that 9 million people are committing fraud.
ANY Dem who starts sounding like ‘wait and see’ is acceptable is a fucking traitor. Things are about to get really, really ugly.
“Future efforts must be laser-focused on helping schools reopen safely in the fall, helping American workers continue to get back on the job, and helping employers reopen and grow,” McConnell said Friday.
I hate to put it in these terms. But the PPP aid (which is probably keeping 20 million employed) runs out in July. If Trump did what Nancy Pelosi wants, and tossed $2-3T in aid to states/cities, unemployement, and a jobs/infustructure program, we would be having an economic upswing in September/October. Trump would be able to run on a “I fixed it message”
But rather than taking the lifeline Democrats are throwing to do the right thing, Trump is going to let the PPP run out, and he is going to have a further sharp contraction in August/September, which will evaporate any final chance he has to win. (put another way, we are currently at about 16.5% unemployment, we will probably be at 25% by then)
So, while a lot of people will suffer, Trump is really digging his grave deeper, as the concrete around his feet sets.
When the PPP finally runs out and some smaller businesses just can’t survive because, you know, consumers not consuming to the same extent as before, the Rethugs will be the ones in the cross hairs. All of a sudden, it’s looking like Dems really can take the Senate back.
I guess Republicans either don’t know or don’t believe a second wave will be coming in the fall. By then, we’ll be in the heart of election season with little time or appetite to pass vital legislation. I know they don’t care about average Americans, but I thought they’d at least care about their political careers.
Brianna says Armando is back working at the country club, so I am pretty sure everything is good. Fuck poor people, am I right?
This is as predictable as opening up too early - we are a country that does 90% of it’s policy based on the rumblings in McConnell’s colon. Data, science, logic, attempting anything actually smart based on actual facts - that is just not how we operate these days.
This is always the problem with the headline U3 unemployment figure, but the current situation has been problematic to say it mildly. The revised number will likely be 3-4 percentage points higher.
The BLS instructed surveyors to try to figure out if someone was absent because of the pandemic and, if so, to classify them as on “temporary layoff,” meaning they would count in the unemployment data. But some people continued to insist they were just “absent” from work during the pandemic, and the BLS has a policy of not changing people’s answers once they are recorded. It’s how the BLS protects against bias or data manipulation.
Former staffers said it’s unusual that the BLS was not able to correct this problem faster.
One problem for workers in some branches, particularly services, is that they do not actually know if their jobs are going to come back or come back in some other form. Astonishingly, the GOP, which knows that some branches of the economy will shrink, has not been out there with WPA-type fixes that would lock in money only if e.g. an industry such as airlines, reduced their greenhouse gas emissions, say, by 10%, or an energy intensive industry like big data assured that a certain percentage of their energy was zero carbon. Industries with highly undesirable practices, such as certain types of fishing or farming, could be ineligible for federal money. Not spending at all, however, does not exercise the policy lever. No carrot and no stick. We know that about a third of the service-sector jobs that existed pre-corona are never coming back. Never is a long time.
The corrected unemployment numbers are around 16.5%. That will worsen when the second round of COVID-19 makes its debut and if it follows the same trend as the Spanish flu, it will be worse than the first, especially in red states where they won’t wait to open up and refuse to get their residents to wear masks. I think it is going to result in a perfect storm for the Republicans but there is going to be a lot of unnecessary death and suffering because of their policies. The Dems need to point that out again and again and again.
Grotestly inapproprate to call fellow Dems “traitors” if they have a different opinion. Get a god damn grip, enough of that crap, the fact the Republicans are practicing it doesn’t make good or useful.
Wait and see is the wrong choice, but it’s not god damn treason for God’s sake.
But who is Mitch willing to kill by withholding aid? Didn’t he walk back his “let the states go bankrupt” comment?
And with these protests going on, and the amount of excessive force being videoed and posted, those local governments are really going to be strapped for cash.