I really wish Fauci would shut the fuck up. There is no actual evidence of slowing. The actual evidence is that you have a few initial hot spots leveling off but at a high plateau. They have big time daily case loads and fatalities. You have a whole bunch of other states picking up the slack as the hit rates for slightly more than half of all states exceeds 10%. That is an increase from the prior week. They’re all touting the IHME model, but that’s just one model and it’s the most ‘optimistic’ one. We’re entering a phase where the virus is spreading to areas of less population but also areas with less HC support and less rigorous social distancing. That suggests a longer peak period before the slope downward, which people may confuse with a plateau. There’s a difference. So you might get a steadier daily case load, but it will be at a high level and the fatalities will also be at a steady but high level. That suggests, to me at least, that the notion of being under 100k fatalities is optimistic. Even in the IHME model, we’re running about 20% higher than their projection and we’re set to hit 50k deaths before the end of the month! If that model is off by 2 weeks (very plausible) we’ll exceed 100k before the end of May. I don’t really care if that model is right or wrong. We should be dealing with actual data.
This is a nightmare. We refuse to learn, I can only hope those responsible will pay the price. This feeding Trump needs to end.
When dump has lost the Wall Street Journal
You also have to have the authority to implement forced quarantining of all the contacts of those who test positive. I don’t see that happening.
This puts enormous pressure on governors to lift stay home orders. Fauci knows this and is warning of a resurgence if this is done willy nilly. He is swimming against the tide and is clearly not very influential. Remember the second wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic was far worse than the first wave. We have no national testing strategy, no treatment, no vaccine. It will be brutal.
That model also assumes strict shelter in place through the month of May. Mnuchin is talking about “opening” the economy in May.
Our shelter in place rules are inconsistent throughout the nation. Many of the major urban areas have done it, but the suburbs and rurals haven’t. Even Newsom said that of CA. If the IHME model is off by just 2 weeks, it probably doubles the casualty numbers. That’s why we should rely on actual data and not get hung up on the models.
Fauci is placating trump just like he did with the “Easter re-opening”. he knew the numbers would be bad and there was no chance. if the numbers make sense, imo very unlikely, then it might be possible. in the meantime the numbers will be bad andTrump won’t do what is necessary. other countries that try to re-open will be the guinea pigs. Fauci is trying to deal with a pandemic and also fearless leader who is a hot mess.
Mini dump new excuse, Not sure how this is going to help him. To me it makes him look more incompetent
Yeah, good thing we’re massively scaling the federal funding for testing centers.
https://twitter.com/npratc/status/1247988083376549888
ETA: posted this before seeing thepsyker’s post. I think it still bears repeating, though. Why the fuck are they doing this?
This move makes no goddamn sense to me.
If we had any other President, yes, I would agree. In fact, we might already be back on our feet. But in Trump, we have someone much more interested in squeezing the crisis for profit than he is in saving lives or restoring the economy, no matter what he says. Which is why ventilators and PPEs were being exported even as we desperately needed them. Which is why states have to buy them at exorbitant prices from private companies instead of FEMA. Which is why he’s aggressively pushing an unapproved treatment for Coronavirus.
It’s follow the money instead of follow to virus with adequate testing.
there is no move. the numbers at the time will tell the story. Mnuchin’s opinion is worth squat.
Lotta real smart fuckin’ people on the internet looking to out-doom each other for the post-likes.
I’m drifting away from participating in TPM discussions and finding that I’m not sure I miss it.
Those in the fact-based community, including one Doctor Fauci, are expressing the correct sentiment that there are many possible futures ahead of us, and it’s impossible (and irresponsible) to reject some of those possibilities outright.
drump is wearing him down, slowly getting him to compromise where he shouldn’t.
Was thinking almost the same thing. Fauci has to be careful with every word he says and I think he finally got caught up in the Trump madness and made a mistake. Maybe he’ll walk it back a bit in the next 24 hours. But now that I think more about it, he probably is worn down.
Seems to me they want to circle back to not having numbers so they can claim whatever they want. The economy is the only thing that matters to them and they really do believe a sick and dying nation can make all things bright a beautiful again and the stock market hum.
Just shoot me now.
Article from the WP:
Two black men say they were kicked out of Walmart for wearing protective masks. Others worry it will happen to them.
How long before a black person is shot because… masking while black.
There shouldn’t be any mass gatherings like baseball games until there is a vaccine, its the only way your going to prevent a massive 2nd wave.
I would take this with a grain of salt…and I mean that in this sense:
The numbers of cases is a reality that Trump cannot order around. No matter what Fauci says.
Putting my words in another way:
The actual numbers, events and headlines in two weeks will render Fauci’s words of “summer optimism” as coerced.