While this discussion is interesting and enlightening and I have little to add except your comments about the “prediction” or gambling markets. If the odds of Willis being removed are about even, based on what I read about what happened yesterday, I advise any gamblers out there to bet heavily on Willis not being removed.
My favorite story about the 2020 election is the millions gambling houses made from Trump voters betting on Trump after the election had already been called for Biden. The spokesperson for one gambling house called it “taking candy from babies who deserve to have their candy taken”.
If I gambled, I don’t and do not even play the lottery, at even money or close to it, I would bet a good amount of money given the odds, about even, you site Willis being removed by the judge.
For the most part gambling houses, like me, do not gamble. Rather, they set the odds so that an equal amount is bet on both sides less a commission for the gambling house for finding bettors to bet with each other. That is gambling houses do not gamble.
Hence, the odds are really set by the gamblers. This is why, all things/teams being equal, the Chicago Bears will have better odds to win the Superbowl than the Green Bay Packers. That is there are more people who live in Chicago than Green Bay and therefore more people willing to bet on the Bears than the Packers.
The point being many more Trumpees will attend his casinos than normal people. Because many more Trumpees will gamble for Trump regardless of the facts than normal people who do regard the facts will gamble, the odds are seriously warped to give the Trumpees better odds than the facts indicate they deserve.
While I did not watch the actual hearing, based on what I read, the odds, based on the facts, should be closer to 10 to 1 against Willis being removed.