Every election of my entire lifetime has had its outcome dictated by vibes.
1972: Nixon wins reelection because the economy is good and McGovern is a weak and shitty surrender monkey who’s aligned with all those damn dirty hippies.
1976: Carter wins because he’s a fresh face after all that awful Watergate/Nixon scandal stuff.
1980: Reagan wins because of the Iranian hostage crisis and Carter presiding over horrendous inflation.
1984: Reagan wins re-election because the economy really had turned for the good and he had a strong public image against Carter’s weak-ass veep.
1988: Bush gets credit for Reagan’s continued strong economy and Dukakis is a doofus riding around in a tank.
1992: Clinton wins on the back of genuine charisma and Bush taking the blame for a recession.
1996: Clinton wins reelection on the back of genuine charisma and Republicans showing themselves to be a bunch of mean and crazy bastards. Plus effective triangulation, truth be told.
2000: Dubya wins on Clinton fatigue, mainstream media adulation, and Gore being a constant scold.
2004: Dubya wins reelection because he kicked Saddam’s ass after 9/11, while Kerry’s an effete and out-of-touch rich dude who does weird rich dude stuff.
2008: Obama wins election handily on the back of long-standing opposition to the Iraq War, incredible charisma, and Dubya’s global financial crisis, beating a war-mongering weirdo with no idea what to do about any of it.
2012: Obama wins reelection because the economy really had turned around, and because Mittens is a weirdo venture capitalist with open disdain for half the country.
2016: A rich guy celebrity scrapes out an electoral college win against one of the least trusted politicians of the last three decades, who then goes out and repeatedly proves just how untrustworthy she is before getting shivved by the director of the FBI.
2020: Biden wins because he’s a normal and relatable candidate in the middle of trump’s economic meltdown and pandemic disaster.
2024: trump retakes office because Biden’s too damn old and too damn proud in a time where everyone is paying substantially higher prices for everything and a lot of them are willing to ignore the 2020 calendar year as being the virus’s fault and also prices were a lot lower back then.
Somebody needs to work out a viable model of vibes-based presidential politics.