Discussion:

Discussion for article #243161

I’ve a feeling that this will escalate.

Various parties are trying to work out a cease fire to the Syrian civil war. If that happens it could de-escalate the situation.

I hope you’re wrong. I hope Turkey has the good sense to somehow show Russia they do mean business with regards to their air space, etc., but also somehow give Putin the ability to pound his chest and crow to the Russian people how he “showed them.” Putin is the sore-loser type of bully who always need to have others allow him to save face. As Josh Marshall pointed out earlier, the Russians aren’t nearly as current with their military know-how and strength as the NATO forces. Push come to shove–and let’s hope it does not get that far–Turkey will seek NATO assistance with any escalation. Turkey is a member in pretty good standing, so they’d be well within their rights to ask for help. That would be a pretty bad-case scenario, but one for which I believe NATO signatories must prepare.

3 dimensional chess.

Prez’s hair is going to get whiter.

Every critic has a “plan” and they are all the same. Form a coalition, get someone else’s boots on the ground, blow up shit, don’t deal with Iran, go back into Iraq…

Now add the tension between Russia and Turkey. Iran is Russia’s only ally in there, so what if Russia calls on Iran for help in Syria? What if Iraq’s Iranian sympathizers give Iran a staging area in Iraq. Near the ISIS territories. What if the Kurds and Sunnis and Shiites start mixing it up over age old issues? What if ISIS retakes a large sector in Afghanistan?

Do you think Trump could sort this out or should we keep him the f**K away from the world?

And NATO has just come out in support of Turkey, but also called for a de-escalation

Pretty bland response … but I don’t know exactly what the right one would be. This is a very touchy situation. Thank goodness we have a President Obama in the WH instead of a President Trump or Cruz. (Rolling eyes and wiping brow at just the thought).

Trump would be encouraging a fight & negotiating the Pay-per-View rights.

I think we want bland.

Russia needs to save face and I am not sure Putin knows how to do that. With NATO in, the Russian retaliation- and don’t you think it will?- is going to need to be an exercise restraint on NATO’s part and Russia can’t view that restraint as a sign of weakness.

Plus with Russia’s tactical disadvantage due to its played out inventory it won’t take much for Putin to roll out a battlefield nuke if his back is against the wall. It’s the age old story- conventional weapons are depleted and the only thing left are the small nukes.

Agreed. (While I sit here eating my Vanilla Bean Ice Cream–no kidding–with granola and nuts. I’m out of bananas. I’ve been told my taste in ice cream is “bland,” but I beg to differ – it’s very subtly delicious.)

I just got off the phone with president Erdogan, he said, “Tell 'em, next time ask bitch.”

Simple – Russia gets credited for a breakthrough in brokering a political resolution to the Syrian civil war that involves a transitional period jointly governed by an agreed-upon coalition, closely-monitored national elections, the writing of a new constitution, and then a safe exit for President Assad.

President Putin is invited onto the world stage to take a bow for his statesmanship, which helped to prevent a world war, and for bringing the various parties in the Middle East closer to a coherent front against ISIS.

The downed Russian pilots are honored at a state ceremony attended by world leaders. Solemn, moving tributes to the pilots’ heroism are made.

OK, maybe not so simple, but possible.

I like. I like. Putin would get to play the good guy on the world stage. A win-win for most involved. Nice end to Assad, as well (well, in Syria).

Shoot. We don’t have that part worked out yet. Some people have to be left behind to take the trash out and pay the cops and teachers and make sure the water and electricity stays flowing.

I am with you on the ‘blend in’ of Putin but the problem Obama is working on is the succession piece. We know the alternative. That is our specialty and has been for decades: decapitate and let the chips fall where they may.

And if Assad’s coalition is destroyed then ISIS gains more leverage as it loses Syrian resistance. If we take out ISIS first then we strengthen Assad’s grip… and Obama’s hair keeps getting whiter

No, I would not sweep all of Assad’s people out during the transition. For continuity and stability’s sake, we need to at least keep the technocrats and those who can maintain order: the military, judiciary, civil service etc

I’m not talking about de-Baathification.

You’re saying you don’t need Paul Bremer? Good.

We have to be paranoid about the West solving these problems for Middle East (nations? amalgamated tribal territories?). It never works. Installing a replacement for the strongman in power is not our strong suit, nor France’s, England’s or any other outside country. It sucks but that is one of the reasons why Obama is very reluctant to stick our nose into Syria. We stir shit up, get it wrong, then go home and watch things burn.

Cease fire in Syria? Mmmm…and I’ve got a great house to sell you in Aleppo. It’s a bit of a fixer-upper, but it’s got great cross ventilation from recent additions to the property. The neighbors are just just the best–really–they are so friendly you’ll love them to death. It’s in a quiet neighborhood with rustic streets and surrounded by ancient ruins from the middle of the 20th century AD. It’s a steal, really.