Discussion: With Governor's Race, Georgia Auditions As 2020 Swing State

Not holding my breath. But, an Abrams win, along with additional Democratic pick-ups in the state and federal legislatures, would be sweeter than a Georgia peach.

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The Dems held Georgia with very conservative statewide candidates when I lived there. OTOH, Max Cleland allowed himself to be bushwacked by a well financed and organized GOP candidate. Both parties seemed to filled with trogs and/and or crooks. The “New South” was a historical accident. the “Old South” won’t let go. I’ll be surprised if Abrams wins.

Anyone else read this story last week at Politico:

This was odd because around the same time the Russians were targeting other states, a security researcher in Georgia named Logan Lamb discovered a serious security vulnerability in an election server in his state. The vulnerability allowed him to download the state’s entire database of 6.7 million registered voters and would have allowed him or any other intruder to alter versions of the database distributed to counties prior to the election. Lamb also found PDFs with instructions and passwords for election workers to sign in to a central server on Election Day as well as software files for the state’s ExpressPoll pollbooks—the electronic devices used by poll workers to verify voters’ eligibility to vote before allowing them to cast a ballot.

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The question is whether Republicans can continue to rely on a large share of the white vote outside Georgia’s cities to ensure victory.

“Predicting the tipping point is impossible … but if Stacey just tells people what she thinks, the votes are out there,” says Democrat Jason Carter, who is former President Jimmy Carter’s grandson and ran for governor in 2014, losing by eight percentage points.

Huh. I can sort of see why Jason lost. The votes may or may not be out there but, for a State like GA, it’s going to take a lot more than just telling people what she thinks. No, I don’t think she should overthink her strategy. But, having said that, I think that the beginning sentence that I bolded is going to be the crux of her winning.

Abrams acknowledges she must piece together suburban swing voters, urban liberals, young voters and nonwhites from the cities and rural areas. But she insists the way to do it isn’t by shying away from liberal policy positions — something she says Georgia Democrats already tried in losing efforts.

Constituents in these areas have very different wants/beliefs and it’s only becoming more entrenched. Cobbling together a coalition of voters isn’t going to be easy to say the least. Certainly worth trying, though.

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I really don’t follow GA politics. I have never seen Stacy Adams in action. But old calculations of how to cobble together a multiracial, ideologically diverse coalition of Dems are of limited application at this point. We know that (1) a nuanced buffet of moderate policy positions targeting a variety of voters has not worked statewide for Dems in GA for decades; (2) there is a ready-made, highly stoked, philosophically variable coalition of Dems ready above all to vote against Trumpism; (3) we live in forthright times; (4) a forthright Dem candidate with lots of legislative credibility is probably as good it gets in terms of riding the wave. Presumably that’s why she won the primary. Georgians with real knowledge will know much better than I, but as far as I can tell this race is shaping up to be truly competitive, and the only question is whether historic voting patterns can somehow be overturned. (And speaking of race, that is another factor that I don’t have a grasp on here.) This is as good a chance as any, particularly if Kavanaugh will be confirmed by November, which he almost certainly will be.

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GOTV will be crucial. As long as Stacey Abrams sticks to her message and she’s not bashful about what matters to her, she should have a good chance of pulling this off. She is a dynamic speaker and can hold your attention. Pandering is not on the agenda. There will be white folks who won’t give her the time of day, she knows this. But she also is capable of getting her message across to those who are tired of Trump’s BS.

But a very strong get people to the polls will make a world of difference. No election is ever won by folks sitting at home.

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Yeah for the positions that aren’t affected by gerrymandering I think Dems will start winning. Unfortunately I think some folks don’t fill out the ballot completely, only high level positions, so some of the other positions like Lt. Gov or AG still go to republicans. At least I’m guessing that’s what happened in NC.

Abrams is going to win that race. There is an emerging NOVA like coalition in greater ATL. The number of minority voters as a percentage of the total population is much higher in GA than in VA. Abrams being an African American woman who is also very knowledgeable about the issues facing GA electorate (having served in the GA Assembly) makes her politically credible. It’s going to be difficult for the usual racists to use ‘race traitor’ type arguments against Abrams. I think the time is ripe. Dems should go all in on GA.

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She is gonna be lucky too that her opponent is looking like Kemp who has a whole lotta baggage of his own. She might just win

Also, don’t discount the large number of NOLA area Dems who found refuge and then settled in Georgia (especially in and around ATL) after Katrina.

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