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"Aside from a few hardcore policy wonks, most American voters support a candidate because they like them. "
Can you imagine actually liking Ted Cruz? Or any of these guys? Republicans really do seem to be a different species.
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The Establishment GOP hasnât liked itself since the RR years and the party is gnashing its teeth because it canât point to its past policies that were proven to have produced positive results here and abroad. The thoughtful Republicans still seek credibility, but with no positive results to point to, they are left with Trump and Cruz. If no one in the party has the authority and gravitas to swat these imposters aside and show the country how its done, then Trump and Cruz can do as they wish for a long as they like.
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I will never sleep again.
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Actually, thatâs not what the article says. If they had 1 establishment candidate, they could beat a âtea partyâ wing divided between Trump and Cruz. But right now, the anti-establishment voters outweigh the âestablishmentâ voters by significant amount. 1 TP candidate vs. 1 establishment candidate breaks down roughly 60-40 in favor of the TP.
Indeed, the article goes further and asserts that even if someone like Rubio drops out, some of his support goes to CruzâŚif JEB drops out some of his support goes to Trump.
The establishment is deeply screwed in 2016; they waited for too long, with far too many candidates before actually running any racesâŚand now that they have, they are tearing down each other for a fight for 3rd placeâŚwhich is basically doing Cruz/Trumpâs work for them.
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An excellent moment to point out that â according to my exclusive analysis of aggregator site Pollster.com â nearly three in four GOP voters nationwide whoâve taken a position in the presidential campaign are certifiably insane.
Combined support for candidates that attract support only from the people who must be batshit crazy (Trump, Cruz, Carson, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum) stands at 69 percent.
Combined support for candidates that attract support from people who may or may not be batshit crazy (Rubio, Bush, Christie, Cruella & Kasich): 24.2 percent.
The GOPâs empowerment of the mentally ill voter â and in saying that I donât mean to insult the mentally ill â is something to be admired!
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It did, but the backfire wonât last. It does give candidates not worthy too long on the stage, but the real problem is because they havenât figured out how to most effectively spend the money in campaigns. They GOP wisdom is more is better, so more mailings, more TV ads = win. Now they are starting to catch on that a more effective ground game beats the pants off of mailings and TV buys, they are looking at ways to circumvent the prohibition on campaigns communicating with super PACs.
And they are getting away with some pretty outlandish envelope pushing on that front. Once they get their heads around how to run effective campaigns and purge their consultant class of the old school ad buy and mailing lists people (which is what is so scary about Cruzâs campaignâŚthey HAVE figured it out),the unlimited money from CU is going to be huge problem for Dems.
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Every so often there is a true transformation of the U.S. political scene, in one or another of the political parties, when it stops being just another election cycle horse race.
Examples include the 1860 rise of the Republican Party itself, and the lasting 1896 capture of the Republicans as the party of big business.
The Tea Party election of 2010 was not a short-term aberration but the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the former GOP into a different animal entirely. I think Romney looks like the last gasp of the Republican establishment - the âmost plausible conservative candidateâ.
The Republican base settled for Romney, was sure he was going to win, and was stunned then the deeply hated Obama trounced him.
This time I donât think they are going to set their hatred aside. Hating âthose peopleâ is more than an attitude on the right, it is a deeply held cultural value, and a central community ritual. They are going to pick a candidate that gives that hate its full voice.
They arenât going to settle for the âmost plausible conservativeâ this time. Certainly not the charisma-free Jebâ˝. Rubioâs strong suit is the âwho else is there?â question, not a winning hand this time.
Nate Silver points out that pre-caucus, pre-primary polls are not predictive. True enough. But that cuts both ways. It does not mean that that the actual primary race is going to be necessarily different from the current polling.
Even at this point we can see unusual trends not seen in previous election cycles - such as Trumpâs early and sustained popularity. We can see the Republican Party is changing into something different from what it has been - this is not a phenomenon of just this cycle,
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This is a point I have been making for months now. The âcrazy voteâ percentage is a large majority of the party and is a stable feature in the polling. Various crazy candidates may be up, or down, in that group but the overall proportion remains the same. The âsensible conservativeâ minority has not made any inroads on it.
When the field narrows the crazy majority look like they will flock to the last crazy candidate standing, not the establishment favorite (who ever that it is).
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I would put it differently. They have taken over the Republican Party, reducing the establishment to a rump faction. The overwhelming, and consistent majority supporting the crazy candidates shows that they are now the Republican majority. The Tea Party may have diminished as a distinct faction, but only because they converted the majority of the party to their way of thinking.
If the Republican Party truly splinters, it will be the establishment having to take their game elsewhere.
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That is actually the calculation that the so called moderate lot is banking on. Trump will see another shiny object and chase that instead
They have no plan at all if Trump does not self terminate
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Itâs American politics since the Religious Right took over. Youâre allowed (and even encouraged) to advocate for genocide.
Just donât use swear words when you do so.
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There are no republican moderates. Such beasts used to be called ârhinosâ. Now that pejorative is reserved for conservatives who arenât crazy enough.
âBush and Christie are effin rhinos.â
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By adopting various versions of the âSouthern Strategyâ and demonizing Democrats as anti-American traitors at every turn, the GOP establishment vindicated and legitimized the most fevered conspiracy theories of its far right base. Thatâs why itâs powerless to stop The Donald. What is the establishment supposed to say: âYeah, we fed you rubes all that crap for decades to win elections, but we didnât really mean any of it?â. The GOPâs last chance to regain the center was to come out full throttle against the Obama Birther nonsense, but they just sat back and let it all be.
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Really, you should just write an article âWhy the conventional wisdom is wrongâ.
Who are these âGOP moderatesâ? What is their âplightâ? Kasich has be sucking millions of dollars from the teat of lobbyists for 15 years now, he is only in the race cuz he has been out of office so long that potential marks think he isnât relevant. Ditto Bush, except he got his cash stashed overseas thanks to his exiled former business partner avoiding extradition. Bridgey Boy, I donât know what his deal is. The only one with a âplightâ is Marco, and he doesnât know what game he is playing.
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Howâd the teabaggers do in 2014? 2012?
Donât count the Presidency, and theyâve done just fine. I think âbackfiringâ is a bit much, sadly.
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Funny how nowhere does this article even mention Josh Marshallâs constant declarations that Trump was a joke that was going nowhere and that itâd be Rubio or Jeb!
Much like the rumors exist that there is a Loch Nest monster or that Bigfoot is somewhere in the hills or Area 51 houses aliens, so too is the rumor of the much ballyhooed but yet unproven notion that there are GOP moderatesâŚAnd much like the aforementioned rumors, Iâll believe it when I see it.
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To the average Republican member of the âbaseâ âmoderate Republicanâ means âa Communist, baby eating, Obama loving sell out.â This season âestablishmentâ is a Republican epithet worse than âmoderate.â Just imagine what tea party members think when they hear âestablishmentâ Republican.
Any guess as to what will happen to the GOP if the establishment again crams a nominee down the throats of the base only to lose the general election?
The issue is not establishment versus non-establishment but winning versus losing. That is in the past the candidate the GOP picked, or the establishment picked and the base accepted, was the candidate with the best chance of winning. I mean the only rational for either a Romney or McCain nomination was that they had the best chance of winning. The same was also true of the Jr. Bush and Bob Dole. The problem is that having picked losing candidates the GOP base is in revolt. That is it does not trust the establishment, in fact the establishment does not trust the establishment, to pick a winning candidate. It is that winning is doubtful for all establishment candidates that has kept the GOP from coalescing around an establishment candidate.
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