yeah, obstruction is like impeach, resign get pardoned.
Money laundering? Conspiracy? (dare I say) Treason (I said it)? Gonna be hard to outrun those kinds of charges.
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Currently is the āoperativeā word in his whole statementā¦
Mueller is a very wily hunterā¦
Dotard Seasonā¦
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Absolutely agreeā¦
My personal preference would be some sort of charge that would result in trump losing his wealth. RICO maybe? I was a biochemist and not a lawyer so I do not claim to know the necessary detail to get that sort of conviction. Obstruction could come from at minimum two ways: the Comey firing or the rewrite of the reason for the June 2016 meeting between trump jr and the Russians that trump sr authored while on AF one.
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As much as I abhor Trump, putting him in jail is very low priority for me. He may never go to jail, so Iām not going to emotionally attach myself to that particular outcome.
He needs to be removed from office, the sooner the better or at a minimum, politically crippled. The Republican Controlled Senate and House show no inclination to consider impeachment. To the contrary, they have been impeding the investigations. Moreover, impeaching Trump would leave us with Pence, who in my opinion is far more furtive, ideological and dangerous than Trump.
So itās up to us. As @georgeh said, we canāt assume that Mueller will save us. We have to vote the bastards out. Only then can we reasonably expect justice.
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I found this WAPO report devastating for Trump. Mueller has advanced this ball a lot further from where Comey left off. Recall that in April 2017, just a few weeks before he was fired, Comey was not in a position to say that Trump was under direct investigation.
This is the first official confirmation from Mueller that Trump is in fact under investigation, on two fronts: the Russian election conspiracy (ācollusionā) and obstruction of justice.
As other legal scholars have noted, and even Trumpās own lawyers indicate, one can go from a subject to a target in a New York minute. You donāt get informed that youāre a target until theyāre ready to indict. When you pair this article with Muellerās revelation in his filed response to Manafortās motion to dismiss that there is in fact probable cause to suspect that members of the Trump campaign (and the campaign itself) violated federal election laws in conspiring with the Russians, you can see that Trump is under risk. Four members of his campaign (with one being from the cabinet) have been indicted or have pleaded guilty (Manafort, Gates, Flynn, Papadopoulos). A 5th person (Page) has been under a FISA warrant and is a treasure trove of information. A 6th person (Van der Zwaan) just pleaded guilty for actions relating to activities with Gates and a Russian intelligence agent (Kilimnick) while Gates worked on the campaign.
What Mueller was telling Trump is: āIām not doing all of this to get small time guys. This is a major conspiracy and cover-up and Iām gunning for you.ā Muellerās communication to Trumpās attorneys essentially means Trump is on his hook and is under his gun.
Now, on the impeachment track, as Iāve mentioned before, Trump has certain constitutional protections afforded to his office. Whether one can indict a sitting President for crimes committed while in office is an open question. I happen to think that Watergate precedent and the Starr inquiry point to āyesā, but itās not a settled position, but the matter of an impeachment referral is settled. Reading between the lines of the WAPO piece and others, I believe Mueller has concluded that Trump obstructed justice. He does need to hear from the ātargetā in this case to complete the assessment of ācorrupt intentā. He is required to publish a report per his Special Counsel order. Whether that becomes a prelude to an impeachment referral or to seek a criminal indictment remains an open question. The article sort of assumed that impeachment was a more likely track, but it didnāt quote Mueller sources on that. I could see Mueller pursuing a few different strategies:
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Trump refuses an interview on the obstruction phase. Mueller issues a subpoena. Mueller gets the subpoena. Trump testifies in open court. Mueller decides to indict, make him an unindicted co-conspirator, or makes an impeachment referral
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Trump refuses an interview on the obstruction phase. Mueller skips the subpoena, writes the report, makes an impeachment referral. This would probably please Trump the most as it would suggest that Mueller backed off a confrontation.
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On the conspiracy track, we get several indictments of key figures, including family members. The conspiracy is essentially exposed. The pressure on Trump to resign grows. Trump is named by targets as a co-conspirators, compelling Mueller to seek a criminal indictment. These are for acts which pre-date the Presidency, so Trump will not be spared from an indictment. Trial may only be delayed until he leaves office. That is my dream scenario, as I predict that if we got to such a situation, Trump would negotiate for an exit in order to avoid trial.
An impeachment referral is also possible on the conspiracy track too, but the article and follow-up didnāt indicate anything relating to that. The underlying assumption, as Josh pointed out, is that the conspiracy track would continue and Mueller will take it where it leads. The obstruction track is familiar to US politics. Crimes of the sort associated with Russiaās election conspiracy are not. These are unprecedented and Mueller will be staking new ground. This WAPO article (and the filing in the Manafort case) essentially confirm, in my view, that itās open season for Mueller on the conspiracy track. He will follow all leads and prosecute where the evidence warrants.
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See Iām hoping for, reaching for, is that this investigation goes to current elected politicians that have been in Congress for a long time, and a long, long time. Those are the ones that I think paved the way for some one like Trump, not especial Trump, but you know a useful idiot.
Iām hoping for public castration, metaphorically castrated, I think that may be the thing that unites usā¦
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It makes sense that Mueller would allow this "leakā now as a public warning to The Dotard- āGo ahead, tamper with the investigation muthafugah, I dare you!ā
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I think Mueller showed a lot of toughness and moxie vs. Trump this week and kind of bullied him around. I know Armando (of DK fame) was all over Twitter worried that Trump was going to fire Rosenstein after Mueller let fly that he has authority from him to investigate Manafort for both his Ukrainian matters + election conspiracy. He couldāve left both redacted, but he made it public. Mueller was telling Trump, āback offā. This WAPO piece release also forces Trump to back pedal.
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The goal is to either impeach or indict and convict Trump. I agree with you that the firing of Comey is a pretty obvious case of OOJ, especially when you add on a nationally televised interview in which he states the motive as being because Comey was investigating him.
But legally, its not as open and shut as you and I believe it should be. The President does have the power to fire the Director of the FBI, pretty much at will. The President can claim he said that in an interview just to make headlines and to play to his base. Perhaps more importantly than all of that, a lot of republicans in Congress have clearly indicated that will look the other way unless the case against Trump is HUGE and beyond reproach.
So two things have to happen here, one is up to Muellerā¦and the actual news report indicates he is on his partā¦which is, to continue to pursue the case against Trump and make it airtight and undeniable to Congress (and eventually a jury). The second part is up to usā¦by electing enough Democrats, by large enough margins that it scares the crap out of the remaining republicans, that we can actually move forward with impeachment.
All that being said, the second part is by far the most important. Trump is impeachable already just on emoluments violations. He laid his head down on the chopping block early on, and dared a republican Congress to take a swing. They didnāt. But his problem is, he canāt lift his head back up off that block when it becomes a Democratic Congress. And we WILL take that swing.
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Rarely have I agreed with you more.
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Read a little more. He is currently a āsubjectā, and that could turn criminal. The right move now is to keep him as a āsubjectā, which is a step above a āwitnessā. As a subject there is now pressure on him to testify or be deposed. If he was just a witness, not so much. But right now Mueller is saying there appears to be some evidence of a crime, and that Trump is a subject relating to said evidence, so he has every right to question him.
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But only a fool would assume that isnāt going to change once Donald lies to the FBI went presented with the evidence collectes so far from his staff. Mueller, like everyone else including world leaders, figured out fast that all you have to do to get what you want is tell Donald what he wants to hear.
Agreed, Iād rather see him broke (after removal from office). Money laundered funds seized, etc. In jail he becomes a martyr for the far right. Exposed as a financial genius āfraudā with his illegal money taken away, that would be great. To show how he lost it all in 2008 and has been laundering money for Russians to get out of the hole, it would just be absolute heaven.
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The WaPo article talks about Mueller currently being in the process of beginning to write a report on the obstruction phase of the investigation, with a Trump interview being preferred to get his version of actions and his state of mind. Since the obstruction occurred during Trumpās time in office, Mueller may be less likely to indict for this and test the court rulings, but rather will submit the report to Rosenstein for possible impeachment referral.
However, the obstruction report will show that the obstruction was/continues to be of a criminal investigation into very real and serious crimes, of which there are already guilty pleas and indictments. Mueller might even release additional indictments at the same time to emphasize the point. The investigation on conspiracy and other discovered crimes will continue - but. I think that might even wrap up shortly after the obstruction report. I do not think Mueller will hesitate to indict Trump for crimes that occurred before 01/20/2017. He has seen the depths of the criminality of Trump, his family, his company and his co-conspirators, including perhaps the Attorney General (unless heās cut a deal) and some of which I hope include Republican officeholders.
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Geoā¦separate and distinct issues. We donāt know what Mueller will produceā¦nor when. But we do have 11-6 elections half a year outā¦and sufficient time to organizeā¦galvanize Demsā¦womenā¦kidsā¦independentsā¦and storm the voting boothsā¦flip the Houseā¦maybe the Senateā¦ and remove Trump the old fashioned wayā¦either via impeachmentā¦or the '20 election if heās still in office
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Thereās no telling what informed intel Mueller has access to as far as Trumpās plans regarding this investigation. I suspect a lot of what we read about Trump itching to fire Mueller is true, and Mueller may have gotten wind of impending problems on that front. So, you throw a bit of misdirection Trumpās way, mollify him, lull him into a sense of false complacency. I think in making this public now Mueller is just buying time, staving off Trump for awhile so he can complete his tasks.
Just to make a couple of random observations ā¦
I. I have a basic rule about reporting on politics, particularly when itās sourced to people in the government. Always, always, always look at what they say about the leaker and then ask yourself why is that person leaking and why now? And, with that said, it occurs to me that the mediocre to terrible lawyers representing Trump have made a strategic decision to leak this. Why might they have done this? The following possible, and theyāre merely possible, reasons suggest themselves to me:
a. They are trying to smoke Mueller out on something by making statements they think he will be compelled to deny, if only through a back channel. If thatās the game theyāre playing, itās a foolās errand, methinks. In all my decades of observing politics, I do not think I have ever seen a major actor in DC who has shown he has fewer fucks to give about what the press says about what heās doing than Mueller. But then, who goes on foolās errands?
b. They are trying to get Trump to pay attention to something he wonāt accept when they talk to him by making him read it in the papers. I think this has been the reason for most leaks from Trumpās legal teams, frankly. In particular, they may be trying to get him to accept that heās under investigation for colluding with Russia by getting the Idiot Whisperers on Fox to talk about it without talking to the Idiot Whisperers directly.
Thatās what Iāve got. Maybe someone else can come up with some other reasons. The one thing I know for certain is that these are not āThe Public Has a Right to Knowā leaks or āWow, Thanks, Tell Me Again How Important I Amā leaks. These are purely manipulative leaks of some kind.
II. If the underlying assertions are true, it tells me Mueller is not going play the what the hell card and indict Trump but, rather, lay out at least some of the information on his law breaking before the election in a report. The pressure on Rosenstein to release it will be immense, likely irresistible. Anyone who thinks they havenāt already decided Trump has obstructed justice after reading this has never known a prosecutor. Itās just not how their brains are wired.
III. As others have noted, itās also a major ādonāt even think about firing us, you belligerent buffoonā warning. One notes that the dying out of the āfire Muellerā meme from the Trump Minitrue seems to have begun around the time this conversation supposedly happened.
IV. Assuming the sources are more or less honest, Iām expecting indictments related to the Russian election tampering conspicuously naming āPerson Aā as an unindicticted co-conspirator and another report to Congress laying out more grounds for impeachment.
The āfasten seatbeltsā light is on, boys and girls.
ETA: I am continually astonished that it is, in fact, possible to develop an automatic numbering system that is more intrusive and annoying and generally wrong-headed than MS-Wordās.
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Darrā¦I donāt care if he perjured himself. Thatās peanuts compared to the numerous, more egregious acts heās done. Like canning Comeyā¦the āadoption responseā he helped script. Emolumentsā¦ Russian loansā¦possible money launderingā¦ giving two Russians undercover intel in the Oval Office.
So, wonāt matter if he backs out of meeting Mueller. Got enough without his expected lies under oathā¦
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As commenters over at the WaPo point out, the media is handling this bit of news all wrong.
The news is the āTrump is under criminal investigationā! Prior to this the word was that he wasnāt!
A person becomes a ātargetā only when charging is likely!
However if Trump is thinking that the fact that he is not (yet) a target, that he is in the clear, then good!
We know that Fox and Friends (aka Trumpās ādaily intelligence briefingā) will push this narrative, and Trump will believe it - what with the very good brain this stable genius has, which knows more than the lawyers.
No reason at all that he should not talk to Mueller. No sirree.
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