You know that. I know that. Walker doesn’t know that.
months ago, i said that the more scott walker speaks out, the sooner he would be gone. ignorance and stupidity generally are not rewarded. he is rich in both.
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I just want to remind you, which is part of why I raised the question in the first place, that this is the same “party brass” that cannot select a Speaker of the House. The intra war is on, and the party big wigs look pretty stymied right now. And as much as people like to discuss these are two seperate events, they are indeed intertwined in many ways. Piss off the Freedom Caucus and force an Establishment guy through with Pelosi’s backing? Or anything even close to that…and watch Rubio, Bush and Kasich run for the hills.
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Wait until caucus delegates are actually picked, and primary voters actually vote. The field will winnow itself quickly, and Drump will face that Walkerian small number of viable candidates around whom voters in the later primarys will coalesce.
“All of the above”
I may be wrong about this, but I remember that Drump was not frequently chosen as the second choice of primary voters in the polls that showed second choices.
Ok…now I can at least buy that as a viable option. I myself am skeptical of his ability to actually turn out voters. But so much of what I read and hear today comes down to “Trump will just walk away from the race because”. The Bad Man will stop touching us if we pray really hard.
He won’t. He might lose out in actual elections, over rating his YUUGE personality compared to actual ground games. But he isn’t going to wake up and go “ya, I am bored with this, I’m out”.
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Plucky, I’m not making an assertion in the form of a question here, I’m seriously asking because I think you’re a killer analyst. The question: Do you think it possible Trump could get surprised in Iowa? From what I read the evangelicals are strong there, and you need committed people on the ground to argue for you as a candidate. If those factors are that important it wouldn’t seem to play to his strengths at all. Thoughts?
Good points. This is also the same party brass who didn’t foresee the danger in front-loading the primary schedule, endlessly bragged about their deep bench of candidates, and didn’t at all see the danger ahead when SCOTUS allowed unlimited campaign contributions via Citizens United.
The problem is that even if Paul, Huckabee, Christie, Graham, Gilmore, Jindal, Pataki, Kasich, and Santorum all left the race tomorrow, even if their supporters all went to one candidate (which will absolutely never happen), if they all went to, say, Jeb, collectively it would barely be enough to best Carson, but not enough to beat Trump. On the other hand, if those listed dropped out and Cruz did too, with most of his voters going to Trump, again, Trump would still win. The only scenario in which Trump loses, assuming the current numbers hold steady, is if Carson or Fiorina drops out, which neither of the two has any reason to even consider.
Thanks for your confidence in me. 
Honestly, I don’t think it really matters who wins IA anymore. A win there is becoming less and less important because IA so rarely chooses the eventual winner. A win would be a huge deal for a non-theocratic candidate like Trump because of the things you mentioned, but even if he loses, as long as he puts up a respectable showing it won’t hurt him. Trump could come in second or even third, win NH, and then he’d still pick up NV and SC before heading into Super Tuesday where he stands to pick up a significant share of delegates.
Ay caramba. I guess it’s time to admit that what many thought was inconceivable was perhaps that—we couldn’t imagine it—but inconceivable is not impossible. That word didn’t mean what we thought it meant. But if it’s true, as you say, that the establishment folks have a few weeks left to stop him, it may be that the knives will come out and a garbage scow full of dirt is about to land on the guy. He’s been a half-insane corner-cutting bully and fake for threescore and ten, and there’s material to work with. Otherwise he could take the party right over the waterfall, and they know it. Interesting times.