Back in reality, putting aside talk of âlegislative agendasâ and âachievementsâ, there is no realistic outcome from the Mueller investigation that is not a calamity.
If the investigation runs its course, Trump and many, many of his underlings, collaborators, and fellow-travelers â basically the entire top-end of the federal government â will be in deep trouble. If attempts are made to crush the investigation, and they will be, the system itself faces collapse. And the Trump group will not be hosed from power without a major struggle.
Something to look forward to.
It was not immediately clear why the president decided to comment on Pakistan.
Câmon, random noise emanating from his pie hole is not a new thing.
Donnieâs âfull plateâ is comprised of KFC. Nothing elseâŚ
OT but stunning-
And also McDonaldâs.
I wonder if the AP checked to see if Pakistan was a topic of discussion on Fox and Friends yesterday.
Is there any news here?
Donât forget the Trump Tower taco bowls.
Some thoughts on 2018:
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North Korea: SK has called for immediate one on one talks with NK. They are trying to head off any American aggression. With China and Russia both keeping NK afloat, and SK also signaling that they donât want war, Trump will have to go it alone and I think thatâs logistically and politically difficult to do. Also, what Vladimir wants, Vladimir gets and Vlad doesnât want the NK regime decapitated. Expect a lot of hot air from Trump, however.
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Iran: Iranâs younger population will continue to put pressure on the regime because the constitution (which created special powers for the Mullahs) has created a government that doesnât represent the people. They keep voting for moderate governments, but they keep getting screwed by the Mullahs and by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard which is neck deep in corruption, terrorism and money laundering, as evidenced by their use of Ivanka Trumpâs money laundering post at TT Baku Azerbaijan, and Trumpâs and Flynnâs attempt to cover up the money laundering scheme run by Reza Zarrab which laundered Iranian money through Turkey and the UAE. That said, this is another area where Vladimir is not going to allow the US to attack Iran. Iran is an important ally of Russia and the last thing Putin wants is for Iran to become a US satellite again as it was when the Shah was in control. The best outcome for Iran is that over the next 5-10 years the Mullahs can be politically isolated and a new, amended constitution can be drawn up that eliminates their role and prioritizes secular Democracy. They have the Democracy part, but not the secular part. The Mullahs will not go easy however. But for 2018 - like NK, thereâll be a lot of hot air, but nothing from Trump.
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DACA - DACA is the GOPâs problem, not the Dems. Thatâs the attitude I hope Pelosi and Schumer take into their discussions. Our position should be a path to citizenship for DACA folks. Trump will refuse and he will either blink and punt to 2018 or start deporting folks.
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The Infrastructure plan is going to be a boondoggle that few will support. Iâm not sure it gets the votes in Congress because they enjoy cutting public services/works, not supporting them. For Ryan to get his juices flowing it would have to be a mass privatization scheme.
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Cutting Medicare/Medicaid - I dare the GOP to do this. I think they will try. Health care is already the top issue for 2018. This move will cement it.
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#trumprussia - The end of December provided us some key leaks indicating that Mueller is probing the links between Trump/RNC, Cambridge Analytica, and Russia troll farms. The articles all but say that Mueller has concluded that the Russian troll farms could not have targeted swing state voters as effectively as they did without US help. In continuing with the Frum theme that this is a scandal with many secrets but no mystery, we are going to find those conclusive links tying the Trump campaign and Russia to violating federal election laws and the use of stolen information. Iâve also heard some legal commentators go much further to say that Mueller may be investigating whether the Trump campaign actually conspired to steal the data that was then later used against HRC. Thatâs quite a bit further than Iâve gone to date. It is certainly plausible. As one possible angle, Flynn did work with Peter Smith who commissioned a team of hackers to locate the holy grail of the 30,000 missing emails from HRCâs private server (which was never actually hacked). The articles to date suggest that Russians led the Trumpers on a wild goose chase. But what if that wasnât the case? What if the Russians had come clean to the Trumpers and said âLook we have all the DNC stuff, but we donât yet have the HRC private server stuff. We can do it so long as you protect us and do xyzâ. That would be pretty explosive. But what if the DNC hacks themselves were coordinated with the Trump team? Maybe they didnât get Podesta the first time, but got some recommendations on whom to go after and got him on the next run? Big deal. I also think weâre going to get at least 4-5 more indictments/guilty pleas plus the convictions of Manafort and Gates. I think we know what the truth is, what we have to see is how fast Mueller can assemble his cases and whether the Trumpers will allow the investigation to proceed. But I have little doubt that if Mueller is allowed to run his investigation, that we will see multiple indictments, guilty pleas, trials, convictions and resignations.
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2018 elections: If Dems just work on keeping up the intensity and turnout, their share of the white vote is likely to be even higher than 2017. In 2017, the Dem share of the white vote nationwide was around 42-43% (rough estimate). I think in 2018 with more elections in Dem friendly areas weâre going to hit 45%-47% of the white vote nationwide, and I think a record high in the South (at least since the late 70s). This should translate into a pretty big Dem win across the board at the Congressional and state levels.
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The GOP retort: taxes The tax bill is a mess and no matter what the GOP does, people have already concluded that theyâre getting crumbs while the super rich make out like bandits. Millennnial voters, who are generationally conscious (this to me was the big driver of the Sanders campaign) will come out in droves against the GOP. The GOP will also get its worst share of the elderly vote since 2008. In other words, the elderly vote is going to return to its pre-2010 norm, with a more even split between the parties. Per tax org analyses of the bill the amounts going into paychecks this year will be relatively modest for most folks. For the AMT rich they get the benefit of AMT relief and rate cuts, but they lose the wealth generating benefit of their homes and a lot of itemized deductions to shield income from taxes. That will feel like crumbs to a lot of people. Youâll get more take home pay, but less value and upside out of your primary investments and investments in oneâs business. Contrary to what the GOP is touting the 20% deduction on business income from corporate entities is very limited for most professionals.
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The GOP retort: Immigration and Terror - Like the Gillespie campaign, I expect the national GOP to pick on something like sanctuary cities or chain migration. But with the courts poised to limit Trumpâs immigration authority, heâs going to have to put a bill up in Congress to be taken seriously or itâs just a lot of hot air. As the VA election showed, attacking immigrants actually spurred turnout in Dem districts. One of the bigger media fails is when they went after a latino group for running a tough ad against anti-immigrant Trump supporters but didnât blink an eye at Gillespie pounding Latinos every day with his crap about sanctuary cities. Weâll see more of that press hypocrisy and white privilege, but youâll see a much more woke Dem voting coalition ready to stick it to the GOP at the ballot box.
Twit In Chief
There is no Trump âagenda.â There are (a) the stripping-the-nation-for-parts greed of Congressional Republicans, and their billionaire oligarch masters, and (b) the shiny objects those GOP thieves use to distract the Narcissistic-Infant-in-Chief.
There is no âTrump agenda.â
Good to see AP getting off to a fresh start in 2018 rather than once again falling into normalizing narrative frames that start from the premise that everything happening now is perfectly normal, nope nothing very unusual going on here.
Jesus. You know the reporters hate it. But the editorial suite of the organization is like the fucking Augean Stables of view-from-nowhere, not our job hackery.
The Republicans got their tax cuts for the rich in 2017 - the ideological Holy Grail. In 2018, will they go after the triumvirate of cutting Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security? Will they do anything to help the working class and Americans who are at risk of economic, health or life catastrophes? Will Twitter shut down the Trump account?
What âfull plateâ? This disgusting, unfit, unqualified racist birther scumbag does not have any agenda or any plan for anything.
Happy Hell Year, Part Deux, people.
We said that about the budget too. One thing a politician understands is ribbon-cutting ceremonies. They want to create jobs for their constituents. Infrastructure projects are a good way to do that. Itâs why I could never understand the GOP under the previous administration deliberately cutting its nose off to spite its face by shooting down the infrastructure plans.
This morning, here in St. Louis, water main breakage is causing calamities all over the city - even my hotel has had to put me on the second floor instead of the fifth because of water pressure issues. This is Missouri - one of the States that wants to drown its government. Well, there isnât enough water to drown anything right now. Could be a very popular idea.
Heâs going to be very busy, mostly due to the crippling fear of Mueller
Message to Congressional Democrats: reject all of the Trump GOP legislative agenda unless itâs stuff you like. Let them have no achievements beyond cutting taxes for the ultra rich and large corporations.
That would be a mistake. Trump and the GOP, particularly the House, have zero problem with doing nothing and starting to deport Dreamers later this year. In fact, given the number of things that they have to deal with it, I think is very likely that they do nothing on DACA and let Trumpâs EO take over. At some level, they are basically putting enough crap out there that Dems need/want, that they are forcing Pelosi/Schumer to say âDACA or Child Insurance?â or some other must have piece of legislation. My gut says, Pelosi and Schumer will stand down on DACA for something else, and we will start deportation.
It will be. But it still wonât be enough to get votes, not with the economy doing fairly well right now, and a multi trillion dollar deficit increase staring them in the faces. This dies fairly quickly.
I agree 100%. I also believe Ryan IS going to try to go there, but he wonât have much support from McConnell. But I hope Ryan spends a lot of public air time trying, because this will absolutely kill the GOP decisively in 2018.
The only thing I am willing to say right now about this, is I think we are going to see more indictments, and pretty high level indictments, very soon. And that this front will end up consuming Trump in 2018. I would also add to the âsecrets without any mysteryâ, is that these secrets are shockingly ill hidden. More people will start singing, and its going to get very ugly very quickly when they do.
Maybe, but I seriously think that should be a side effect and not the focus. White voters arenât what won us AL and VA,its staying true to our base, which is largely POC, particularly women of color. We will make significant headway in suburban areas, and that will turn out a higher % of whitesâŚbut even that misses one of the big drivers of what is happening in suburban areasâŚthey arenât lily white anymore. I used to spend entire afternoons on the Ossoff campaign canvassing very nice, well to do homesâŚand not talk to a single white person the entire time.
Yes. This legislation is going to be a disaster for them, particularly in those suburban areas. Even worse, while the real impacts wonât be felt until 2019 and beyond, they are being brought to voters attentions when they go talk to their CPAsâŚright now. So its not just going to blow up nowâŚits going to blow up every year for 3-5 years. That takes some real doing, but they achieved it.
I am not so sure they will respond with these. Terror of course, if some outside event happens, but barring that. I donât see most GOPers running on these things. They arenât going to build a wall, they are seeing the courts push back on Trumpâs EOs, and they saw Gillespieâs lossâŚits not really an issue they want to draw attention.
Which brings up the big questionâŚwhat exactly will the GOP run on in 2018? The political reality, as I see it, is 2018 is going to be a referendum on Trumpism, as nearly every first midterm is on the WH occupant. Normally, the strategy for midterms is, if the national issues are against you, run locally. But if anything, the local issues are even tougher on the GOP in 2018. They need a distractionâŚand a very big one. Which is by and large why I think they are acting (the tax bill being Exhibit #1) like the last party attendees grabbing as much stuff as possible as they head out the door. They know, as things stand now, they are going to be blown away in 2018.
North Korea is a tempest in a teapot. Kim isnât going to nuke the USA. Heâd be killed if he tried. Trump has no chance of influencing the Iranian people or their leadership. Theyâd sooner listen to Netanyahu than him. Kile NK all Trumps got there is hot air. As for his legislative agenda in 2018? Itâs page two of a menu of which page one got horrible reviews. Whatever crap Trump had in mind heâs going to have to change it. If he has a year two like year one heâll not have a year three.