Discussion for article #241997
Sweet.
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Trump handily led the pack at 42 percent nationally when respondents were asked who would win the GOP nomination.
Personally, I find the prediction portions of these polls to be absolutely worthless. Thereâs no reason to think that the average crystal ball of the respondents is any more accurate than my own.
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This GOP primary is a master class in abnormal psychology.
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I believe a âwining nominationâ is normally called a âtoastâ.
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I watched a little Morning Joe this morning (until I almost threw my coffee cup at my tv.), and they were talking about could Trump or Carson actually win the Presidency. They were actually giving him serious consideration that he or Carson could. They were talking about how the country doesnât trust government anymore, how no one like insiders anymore .
Hello? REPUBLICANS donât trust anyone in government anymore, Dems are fine. Most âIndependentsâ are fine. Republicans are the ones getting all ginned up from Fox and talk radio, the rest of the country is actually doing okay.
Itâs the Romney bubble all over again, they think the vast majority of the country are angry mobs who think Obama is a muslim socialist and only their AR15;s and Redstate subscriptions are keeping them safe.
Chaffee could beat Carson in a general election, the American people would laugh Trump and Carson off the stage.
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National polls in particular are pretty worthless. They received importance this cycle because of the absurdity that the RNC placed upon them for choosing who gets on the big stage. Now that is pretty much over, the focus should be on the state by state polls.
Trump still has the lead in Iowa, though Carson is close. Trump has a commanding lead everywhere else, however, and, what should really be scaring the crap out of the other campaigns, has been spending more and more time in the South.
Thatâs a move someone who is in it for the long haul makes.If he locks down the Southern states, he all but has the nomination sewn up. IF he can actually get his voters to turn out. Thatâs still a question mark in my mind.
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The decades-long plan to build up the GOP with RWNJ media, redistricting, school board tyranny, voter suppression, Evangelical selective blindness, gun-nutteryâŚso expensive, so time consuming, so effectiveâŚ
And Trump walks in and steals their fucking lunch. âThanks for the Hot Pocket and moon pie, assholes! Deeee-LISH!â
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The Donald: âUhhhâŚHey you loser RepublicansâŚremember that âagreementâ to support the party nominee you whined and bitched about until you got me to sign it? ~grins!~â
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Borowitz Report says Chafee is surging to 2% with Webb out of the race.
âThe Chafee train has left the station, and the next stop is three per cent.â
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Priceless!
Chafee: âAnybody seen my charisma? Itâs ON now!â
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Trump is favored in NH and IA, but prediction markets have Rube at number one, Jeb! at two and Trump at three. At this point itâd be worthwhile to recall Cainâs meteoric rise to the top of the polls.
Almost??? You must have nerves of steel, lip read or just skim the closed captionsâŚ
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The GOP sails along, fully invested in Trumpology, feet perched on the handlebars.
What could possibly go wrong?
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Except that Cain only lasted a few weeks. Trump has remained at the top of every poll since he rose to the top. Itâs now been 100 days in which heâs remained the frontrunner.
For that analogy to hold, PeeWee aka the GOP needs to slam right into Large Margeâs big rig.
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Cain was on top for less than a month. Trump has been on top for 4 months now. There really is no comparison there.
Fiorinia is probably the candidate that most closely resembles the boon and bust candidates of 2012. Not Trump.
The prediction markets are simply refusing to accept that the Establishment doesnât have the power that it has had in previous elections. But they donât. Donât just look at what is happening in the presidential campaigns, where the anti-establishment candidates have held roughly 60% of the vote for months on end; look at what is happening in the House, where the anti-establishment group has forced the establishment candidates, not only out of the Speaker position, but has a group of them publicly musing about retiring all together.
Jeb is toast. In my opinion, his campaign has already hit the point of no return. 4th place in Florida? Thatâs his entire campaign right there.
Rubio is just now emerging into the spotlight, and the knives are already sharpeningâŚon BOTH sides of the immigration issue. He has been trying to keep his powder dry and his expenses low, and now its starting to showâŚhe isnât making near enough appearances in the early states, and his staff is too bare boned for what it should be as the major candidate for a major wing of the party. And with Jeb out, Rubio becomes target #1 for Trump, Carson and Cruz. I personally donât think he has what it takes to survive, let alone thrive, in that type of scenario.
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@DaveyJones64
@PluckyInKY
I live too much in the reality based world where we cannot accept that a casino magnate would actually succeed in bamboozling the entire country. Maybe Iâm just projecting my blue state comfort again.
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To be clear, this was not a poll measuring who Republicans want to win, but a poll of who they expected to win.
This is second-order polling, which is a good gauge on how people think about other people but not really a good gauge on individual opinions.
The headline is very misleading. While perhaps true that Trump occupies the â#1 slotâ, what this poll shows is that a plurality of Republicans expect him to attain and maintain that top slot after the primaries have started, and that a plurality of Republicans think he has the best chance of winning in the general election.
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Mixing gin and wine can lead to trouble.
You spelled the headline wrong. Itâs WHINING, not WINING.