Why more R’s than D’s in this Quinnipiac poll? What electorate are they basing this on? 2014?
Except for the fact that Fox is using polls to winnow the Republican field from 17 to 10, polls don’t have much value at this point in the campaign. I would point out that national recent polls have shown Bernie Sanders beating all the top Republicans head to head.
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Boy do I agree with this. I’m not an HRC supporter but JEB has stepped on his own d*ck so many times, he must enjoy the pain. Now, he’s being totally overshadowed by Rump. I’d be willing to bet that by the time autumn gets here, the billionaires who control the GOP will be mulling over who they can replace JEB with.
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Yeah…there is some hesitation, in some circles.
The MSM is working diligently on that.
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I am always deeply distrustful of polls, the questions are way inaccurate, and those answering don’t always know what they’re talking about or being asked. But it’s early days, so let’s calmly watch it unfold.
All the Quinnipiac polls have been swinging hard right this year. Who believes that Trump would only lose by 12 points to Hillary? Who believes that there is any significant number of Obama voters who would vote for Bush? So, either Quinnipiac is really on to something-- a hard right shift in the electorate, or bad modeling by Quinnipiac of the likely electorate. I would hope that TPM would urge Quinnipiac (and other pollsters) to reveal their internals (not just the pablum the pollsters want us to see). For example, did Quinnipiac ask its respondents who they voted for in 2012? If not, the poll - at this stage of the game - is truly suspect. The Democrats have won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections. On what basis does Quinnipiac believe that that pattern will be broken this year?
he lost all three match-ups with Democrats
Glad to know we Democrats are thinking people and realize that The Donald is only a shiny new trinket.
I’m sure some of that 30% who claim they would never vote for Trump would wind up doing so if he were the nominee, but I don’t doubt that a significant portion would either stay home, vote for an independent, or hold their nose and vote for the Democrat. I bet we’d see a repeat of 2008, only on steroids, where various well-known, high profile GOPers were publicly endorsing Obama. The Republican civil war between establishment and the crazies would become so public and so visible that even those who don’t follow politics would be keenly aware of it.
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Trump is leading in every state poll I have seen right now, including Florida, by roughly the same margin seen here. Yes…even in Florida, Trump has a double digit lead over JEB (and Rubio is polling 4th). He is the only candidate so far to post week to week double digits leads over everyone else, which is, he is breaking away from the logjam. 10+ point leads in a field as big as this is definitely something to take note.
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I wouldn’t be so sure. In fact, I wouldn’t be so sure that a significant number of that 30% wouldn’t end up voting for Trump in the primary. The GOP loves to win, and their voters flock towards the winner fairly consistently. Policy matters much less than being able to say “I voted for the winner”.
Even more troubling for the RNC, Trump is pushing buttons and getting positive responses with EXACTLY the people that they have been planning their entire strategy upon…blue collar white people, particularly men. His immigration rants has closed the door on any last minute notion of possibly reaching out to the Hispanic community…they are stuck with their original plan, come hell or high water…or Trump.
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[quote=“Dr_Coyote, post:19, topic:24381”]
This is New Hampshire. It’s Tennessee with maple syrup.
[/quote] Um it is what!? How much time have you actually spent here?
I’m from there. Mean no disrespect to the state. I meant–in shorthand–that outside the cities, it’s very easy to find very conservative, not-very-well-informed voters.
Apologies.
True, but I do think there are still quite a few Republican voters who are educated, upper middle class or rich, country club types who see Trump as an embarrassment and a buffoon. These are the types that live in well-appointed suburbs and gated communities who are fairly agnostic to liberal on social issues, but staunchly fiscally “conservative”. They liked Romney because he was, in many ways, one of them. McCain was too, although I suspect many of those folks quietly voted 3rd party or Obama because they couldn’t vote for a ticket that included Palin. Think Kathleen Parker, Condi Rice, Colin Powell, etc.
You are talking in terms of the general election. I am still stuck in looking at the primaries. In a general, Trump gets pounded worse than any of the other GOPers, I agree. But in the primaries, he is well positioned right now to start gathering momentum and steam roll through the early states and possibly even Super Tuesday (which if that happens, they are stuck with him).
In terms of a general, however, the entire GOP strategy is fantasy, and Trump has made it even more unsustainable. Romney received a bigger percentage of the white vote in '12 than Reagan ever did. To grow that number enough to off set the growth in the other demographics they are going to lose even worse it, they will need something north of 80% of whites to vote for them…and that just isn’t going to happen in any universe. In fact, they are actually losing (and did in '12, too) with white college educated voters.
I mean to get crass and very base about it…the message of the party running 2 Hispanics and a black man vs. a party running all whites is…Vote for Us, cause we are the White Party?? Toss that comment down at a bar when arguing with some GOPer, and just watch the confusion set in.
Poll dancing causes congenital warts…
But, hey. Somebody’s gotta do it.
Yeah, I was talking about the general election. And I wholeheartedly agree with your point about the primaries. More and more, I’m really starting to think this Trump thing is real, that he could actually win the nomination. What may have started out as a cynical way to boost ratings for his reality show has become an actual presidential run. Trump has nothing to lose by staying in, yet he’s got everything to lose if he backs out (endorsement deals, a new TV show, a gig on Fox, a radio show, becoming a kingmaker. etc), so he’s going to stay in it and continue wowing the base by being increasingly horrible.
In one way and only one way, I liken his candidacy to that of Obama’s in 2008. When Obama won Iowa, a candidate many people loved but believed couldn’t win, people began to believe he could actually possibly win the nomination and win the presidency. I think the same is true for Trump. If he wins Iowa, he’ll give the base hope and he’ll go on and win the nomination. If that happens I do believe Democrats win the presidency, the Senate, and probably take the House back too.
Why do all these polls keep pretending Biden is a candidate?
15 months out in a race crowded with names. Quinnipac’s favorable/unfavorable question included 23 names, with 13 of those getting a “haven’t heard of” response above 40%.
The results might have some use in tracking how support for the candidates are affected down the line by news and events, but they have no use in predicting the general election results.
The down ticket impact will be interesting to watch develop. I suspect that if Trump continues to do well in the polls, we will start to see a flurry of crazy candidates mount their own insurrection primary challenges, which would definitely cost them the Senate (I don’t their chances are too good at holding anyway) and may cut into their House majority.
But I am skeptical that we can take back the House this year. We probably pick up a few seats, but not enough to take the House. But I have been wrong in predicting the House before, so anything is possible.
Holy shit, a socialist is beating the poster child of plutocratic assholery? In 'Merica? Hot damn!!