The Dems had a very good 2 weeks since the end of the Kavanaugh confirmation process. Trump and the GOP had 2 bad weeks, capped off by a hapless performance by Trumper DeSantis in a debate where Andrew Gillum took on Trumpism head on and DeSantis had no credible response.
The House: I see the range as a D+ 35-65 seat gain. It will be on the higher half of that range. There’s a very good chance that the Dems hit the magic number before they reach the Mountain and Western time zones.
The Senate: If the election were held today, the Dems would have an even money chance at a 50-50 Senate. At least, I can say that 50-50 is no more or less likely than other results.
The 5 Senate tossups remain: NV, AZ, FL, MO, ND.
The 2 on the fence opportunities are: TN/TX.
The GOP’s outside chances at pickup opportunities are in: MT/IN. (I took WV off the list. Just don’t see any polling suggesting movement).
Regarding the tossups, the Dems had strong debate performances from Rosen and Sinema. Sinema got a very strong poll showing her up 6, leading in Maricopa County (which is basically the ballgame in AZ 9 times out of 10) and in the mid 40s among white voters. Rosen got a poll showing her up 2 points, but more importantly, the early vote started and the Dems are doing well in Clark County and Washoe County. The current overall advantage for the Dems in terms of ballots cast is 44-38 (and is trending higher when you consider that Dems are outperforming the GOP in Washoe County). Keep in mind that NV is a about a D+5 to D+6 state, so right now the electorate is right at the state PVI. That will likely change of course, but the point is Dems are going to show up, and if they show up in the big counties, the GOP is unlikely to win unless Heller has a blowout margin among Indies, and I have doubts that will happen.
A sign that the polls of this race have been way off is the current voting trends in Washoe County (Reno). This is a swing county in NV, and one where Heller has to do well. GOP has a registration advantage there, but right now Dems are outperforming them. That means the county will likely end up a close margin and that won’t be enough for Heller to win statewide.
The other thing I’d note is that even in the smaller counties, Dems are punching above their voter registration rate as compared to the GOP in 3 or 4 counties and statewide overall (thus far). My point is that recent data tell us that AZ and NV are perhaps Tilt D tossups as we’re getting some positive data points in our favor.
In Florida, Gillum and Nelson seem to be polling very well. Nelson leads by 5 in the latest poll from CNN. Gillum leads by 12. Rick Scott chickened out of a debate with Nelson. Gillum destroyed DeSantis in his debate. Early mail in voting has started in FL (In person EV to start this week, Monday). The GOP’s advantage in the early VBM is lower than prior years. It’s currently 44-38. But look under the hood and I see additional reasons for Democratic optimism. There are 30 counties in FL where there are 100k registered voters or more. Dems currently have a higher turnout rate (# of Dems votes/registered Dems in the county) than the GOP in 15 of them. This includes several red counties. Dems appear to be punching above their registration rate in the heart of Red FL and in purple counties where these elections are decided. The point is that Dems are an in-person EV group. FL Dems prefer it over VBM but they’re making their presence felt.
In MO, Claire McCaskill had a good debate performance vs. the very slippery Josh Hawley. He tried to keep a moderate tone and a low profile but Claire went after him and he had few credible answers on ACA/pre-existing conditions, right to work, minimum wage. Hawley distanced himself from the House proposal. Polling is scant but the GOP pollster showed a 1 pt gain for McCaskill (-1 overall), suggesting that other non-partisan polls would show Claire in the lead. In other words, this is a tossup but Claire hasn’t been hurt by her Kavanaugh vote and the election is being fought on health care and local pocketbook issues which is where she needs it to be in order to win.
There has been no polling out of ND, though most are putting it in the lean GOP category. Heitkamp had a solid debate performance, has some great ads running and is running aggressively. I still believe she has a chance. If she gets to a 30k or higher margin in Eastern ND, I’d make her a slight favorite to win that race. But there is literally no new information there except early voting which seems to be proceeding at a good clip from all counties.
In TX and TN, Dems are getting some decent polling, and TX is looking more and more like a tossup as Blue TX seems excited about Beto, and Beto is drawing big crowds even in key parts of Red TX. His goal is in Red TX is not to win, but to narrow margins in some key red exurb counties from 20 points to 10 points or so. In TN, the polling stubbornly shows a tossup. I don’t think Blackburn has put this race away.
Two weeks to go. Lots of voting to do. Stay aggressive Dems and close strong.