How does Harambe fare?
+1000. I donāt care how they try to weight a poll, but when I hear it is (1) auto dial and (2) only to landlines I stop listening.
In an era when (a) most young/professional people donāt have a land line, and (b) those that do donāt answer automated calls, this approach is methodologically unsound.
We know that Clinton voters skew younger, more urban, educated, and non-white, exactly the people this poll would miss.
Obviously they had a budget, and live dials to cel phones (the gold standard) was not doable, so they did a junk poll instead.
I think the big issue with this poll in OH is that they have Trump up +17 among indies when no other poll taken in OH has margins like that. So I think this is likely a bit of an outlier.
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Iāve always favored the left thigh, myself.
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This poll is badly out of line with the Monmouth U poll out today which (using live operators to both landlines and cel phones) finds the race - amount ālikely votersā to be 46 Hillary, 39% HO, 7% Johnson, 2% Naderite.
When the pressed Undecides/Naderite/Johnson supporters and asked them if they leaned either Hillary or HO, they got
49% Hillary, 42% Trump.
Ohio ought to be about the national average, showing that this Junk Ohio poll is well out of lineā¦
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Emerson is not very well regarded by fivethirtyeight. It has a GOP lean and one of the higher āsimple average errorā numbers. So one can reasonably say a ātieā in this poll puts Clinton ahead.
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My 91-yr-old father-in-law ditched his landline in favor of his smartphone, but then heās Mexican American, and so fits the pattern. The heaviest users of cell phones only are the young and minorities.
Weāve kept our landline out of inertia, but never use it. The only calls we get on it are robo-calls trying to sell us new windows or insulation, duct cleaning, cruise scams, reverse mortgages, and other stuff generally oriented specifically to older people.
All 97,421 of them wouldnāt have needed to vote for Gore. Only 270 of them. Are you really saying that is implausible?
increasing the likelihood that the Republican candidate wins, and the progressive agenda is defeated.
āProgressiveā third-party voter = white person with financial, social, and cultural connections insulating them from the worst consequences of the Republican governance they enable. Thatās for the poors to endure. See Maine.
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Your analysis misses the worst damage that Nader did to Gore. Nader attacking Gore forced Gore to the left, and also caused he (due to Naderās criticism of Clinton) to keep his distance from Bill until it was too late. Nader basically left Bush alone, he only attacked Gore. Unfortunately Stein is the same, she does not attack Trump, she attacks Clinton.
And Gore was pushed to the left in an election where Bush had unified support and was able to pivot to the center and run as a ācompassionateā conservative.
Gore lost Tennessee because he did not run as a centrist (what was needed in TN) but as a liberal. And then in FL, Nader not only cost Gore 2% of the vote he got, but 2% on his right that went to Bush, since Bush on some issues was able to present himself as the moderate candidate.
Elections on won in the center, sorry, but that is just reality. Its why Bernie would have been crushed by Trump and why Clinton while moving to the Left tried to keep herself from going too left.
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Only FAUX NEWS zombies still have a landline these days.
HO cannot even beat Clinton in the brain dead demographic.
Itās better than that. Per Josh, they used a bullshyte adjustment (my term, not his). They deducted 3% from Der DrumpenfĆ¼hrer and added it to Clintonās number? Why 3%? Why not!
Itās also a robopoll and called only land-lines. This poll has holes (note the plural) big enough to drive an armored column through.
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Ha, ha. Thanks, I fixed it.
Yeah, Iām 61, so presumably in that demo, and I havenāt had a landline in years, nor have any of my friends. (Of course, this means my phone bill went from $21 a month to $182, but ā¦ internet always at my fingertips, right!)
And who answers phones anymore. If I donāt recognize the number, I wait to see if they leave a voice mail.
I hope thatās the case. Itās not just that I want Clinton to win. I donāt want to believe that almost half of my fellow citizens could actually listen to that poltroon for two minutes and even consider voting for him.
The Republicans will vote for Trump. I have never believed they would not. they would vote for a dead skunk if it was a Republican skunk. vote get the vote out in you community do all you can to help get the vote out. if we vote we win.
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Ohio has undue influence in our elections. A ship of fools.
Me too. Iām white, and Iām feeling really lousy about my race-- more than half for Trump?
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Can you define āHOā? His Offalness? His OralMonster?
Not to be Debbie Downer here, but looking at the recent polls it appears that Clinton is not winning. Rather, Trump has been losing. Clinton has remained mired in the same general range since the convention bounce began to come down. Trump, after a big deflation, now has begun to inch up. This is disturbing.
The bizarre history of media scandal-mongering regarding the Clintons has its riin a misguided ambition that investigative journalism