The magic Kasich poll numbers!!! America loves a hunch-backed former Lehman Brothers billionaire who resembles your crazy uncle…
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We’ve heard of how governments and corporations go to pains to prevent their key figures travelling together in the same plane, or car, and to keep crazies and the nation’s enemies from knowing of any plans for them to meet all together in the same accessible location.
This congregation Thursday is entirely consistent with that policy.
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I watched that episode, and that’s not how I understood it. The average of the last five polls, which was always the “formula”, still showed Kasich with consistent lead over Perry. Even if you look at the individual polls, Kasich is ahead in those polls. The problem with using their formula is that whether it was Perry, Kasich, Santorum, etc. those last two slots were statistically within the margin of error for even the individual polls and certainly within a statistical margin of error in an average of five polls. The model was flawed from the beginning, but the flawed model was always going to mean that the 9th, 10th, 11th and even 12th candidates could easily be rearranged in any order based on the MOE.
I just don’t see any shenanigans here, not unless several well respected pollsters were in on it.
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From the NY Times:
“This has been one of the best quality fields we’ve seen in a long time, it’s just an amazing field,” said David Winston, a top Republican pollster who worked for Newt Gingrich in the 2012 presidential race.
Pretty hilarious, isn’t it?
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When your entire worldview is a lie, those kinds of mealy-mouthed platitudes are autonomic.
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Ex-Sen Fecal-Lube must be very unhappy.
Meh.
Many of the candidates, whether above or below the cutoff, aren’t ready to debate. It’s more like the first week of spring training. It’s going to be a puffball.
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That would explain it.
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Some day – and I’m not looking forward to it – I’ll have to explain to my grandchildren that our world was so far gone that Carly Fiorina, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Lindsey Graham just weren’t crazy enough for Fox and the GOP base.
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Ain’t America Great. We are force-fed into accepting that our basically two-party system, consisting of politicians and non-politicians alike, running for the Presidency of the United States, are now chosen by a lone cable TV channel and all the secret donors and bazillionaires in our great land. And all the other debates will tend to follow form, since a precedent is now being set among the corporate media giants.
What a fucking joke. I’m prone to blame the entire media establishment for allowing this devolution to occur without any real push back on their part. They’ve all played into it in one way or another. You’d think they could’ve mounted a more concerted opposition to this farce if they had wanted to…but in not doing so…it suggests tacit approval or sadly resignation to this bastardization of the process.
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popcorn futures up 624% at close today
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So Santorum dropped out? Or did Fox just erase him from the slate?
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Well, it’s hard to say they aren’t representative.
When thinking about Trump and all the attention given to him as a “serious” candidate, I keep coming back to looking at the overall picture of who the Republicans support. It’s easy to make a quick and dirty estimate of the sanity of the party just by estimating who is crazy and who is sane and how much support they get (all in relative terms of course). Candidates like Paul and Cruz I’d roughly go 50/50 on. Basically, there’s about 30-40% crazy within the party. Even if Trump maxes that out, he isn’t going to get the nomination.
Reps who support sane candidates are not going to switch there allegiance over to nutters when their sane candidate drops out, but will instead switch over to a difference sane candidate still in the race. Assuming that, there is no way Trump gets the nomination.
But back to the selection, this is pretty representative of that. About 40% crazy, 60% sane. Otherwise know as, “your Republican party”.
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“…a top Republican pollster who worked for Newt Gingrich in the 2012 presidential race.”
ROTFLOL
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In which states does he need to take a majority rather than a plurality to win the nomination?
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And have handsome 2nd ‘vacation’ homes to prove it…
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Mass quantities will be required (apologies Beldar).
Also required will be:
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noun informal, see: polls
Yep. Now excuse me while I watch Tweety interview and shower praise on his favorite White Citizens Council member and good loyal Republican bigshot, Haley Barbour. Yeah Tweety, what a guy? One of your favorites. Now waiting for him to switch gears and interview someone over how unfair it is in some States that the voting rights of minorities are being systematically violated and denied.
Betcha, he won’t even blink.
They’re all full of shit.
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If Trump goes for “crazy” to snag the repub nomination how then will anyone accept it when he tacts back to the “reasonable center” of his party to get the bulk of republican votes in November?
Of course that’s assuming there is a reasonable center to tact back to.
Sigh.
Of course I know this little thought experiment is an exercise in futility because none of it bears any semblance to reality, except for the existence of the crazy.
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