Discussion for article #229843
Another race that should haven’t been close.
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Agreed for the people that wanted change they wanted to vote for the guy who was the chair of George Bush Jr’s campaign? Enron lobbyist?
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How many low information voters know that that is what they did?
I don’t understand why none of the pollsters picked up on Gillespie’s strength? I follow Nate Silver and Sam Wang and many others and no one saw this coming. It is like the polling before Eric Cantor’s defeat. Why does it seem that polling and analysing Virginia is so difficult?
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Its easy…most democrats are tired of these “no labels”, “third way” type of republican lite candidates. They also didnt feel motivated to get out and support them.
I can only speak personally but I am tired of democrats just accepting republican positions on a variety of issues. If I wanted republican positions I’d vote for one…democrats are having an identity crisis and they’ve got 2 years to sort it out
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You cannot beat something with nothing.
Warner was lucky that he was running against another nothing.
Surprises can be worse in Virginia politics. Remember what happened to Eric Cantor in the recent GOP primary—and he had a lead according to a poll that was at least 3 to 5 times the various ones assigned to Warner. And for that matter, don’t forget former GOP Senator George Allen.
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For the very reasons cited in the article. Deep red southwestern region and very red southeastern region have commitment if not absolute numbers on their side, while the blue areas in Richmond and NoVa have numbers but not commitment. That’s also why in a supposed purple state the legislature is as bonehearted Republican as it is.
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Well, Warner had plenty enough ads running during the campaign that pointed that out.
Well, nobody was really surprised about that. His poll numbers tanked after his macaca incident.
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I live in the deep red area of southwest Virginia. And, it truly is the deepest of red. Gillespie didn’t need any platform, plans, or promises. His campaign signs mostly simply read “STOP OBAMA” and that was enough to bring in the votes. At my polling place, Gillespie volunteers were outside handing out sample ballots with the GOP names checked. No one was there for Mark Warner. I was very relieved to see Warner eek ahead at the last minute, but we are in for a rough ride ahead!
Copy editor note: It’s “shoo-in,” not “shoe-in.”
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But the lingering question remained: How did Warner, who has been deemed one of the safest incumbent Senate Democrats, survive by such a thin margin?
Surely Daniel Strauss is being snarky here. The only story is that GOP voter suppression efforts work. In 2010, a benchmark for GOP performance, national turnout was held below 80 million. That was therefore the same goal this year. Like Noah’s Ark you then start designing rules and practices at the county and state level that achieve this. Only the “right” kind of voters are invited onto the lifeboat.
In Virginia’s case, no total of votes cast has been posted on their website, but we can guess the GOP target. 2010 was 2.2 million out of population of 8 million and a voting-age population of about 5.4 million. Not perfect (40%) but pretty close to the national 38% goal and good enough for Bob McDonnell. This year, the GOP county clerks were still going for that 38-62 mix, i.e. making sure 62% of the population does not vote. Some people never vote, so getting to 62% is easy initially. As you approach the magic number for success, the big issues become preventing registration and making voting for certain types of people as difficult as possible. My sense is that GOP structural impediments were largely successful in depressing turnout and reinforced by media messaging.
.When people who think like you vote in non=presidential elections, fewer Democratic office holders will accept Republican positions. Republicans know they have to vote, Young and too many non-white Democrats don’t.
Exactly…republicans give their base a reason to turn out. I always vote, but democrats haven’t exactly been exciting their base