Dems have heard from the base that they expect a fight and the politicians seem to be responding.
Dems are getting prepped to fight before the actual real battles. In truth, Kennedy’s replacement still keeps the court at 5-4. The issue is that our 4 are old and their 5 are young (opposite of the nation’s demographics). By trying out different parliamentary maneuvers and even shut downs now it’s a dry run for the toughness we’re going to need to deal with the issue of impeachment of Trump officials (including Trump himself), policing of the executive branch and cabinet offices, and when the GOP gets another justice to replace.
Dems are very motivated to vote and their growth has come from white women. There hasn’t been this much alarm about the abortion rights issue since 1992 (which was motivated by Clarence Thomas’ hearing and confirmation to the court). We won big that year among women and Clinton won white women in 1996 because they trusted him on abortion rights. In that sense, Dems should expect to get one of their best performances ever in that demographic.
The bad news:
We don’t have the votes to stop Mitch if he has his 51 (and he’s going to make this a big deal). Whether Mitch delays or not depends on what Collins, Flake, McCain and Murkowski do. If Mitch only has 50 (if McCain is unwell and can’t make it), then he has no margin for error. If Mitch doesn’t think that group of 4 is going to give him what he wants, he’ll make it an election litmus test issue to see if Scott, Hawley, that dipshit running against Heitkamp in ND and Morrissey can get any traction, or can scare red state Dems into voting for the nominee. In Manchin’s case, he’s going to have his finger firmly to the wind on this one.
If we fail in stopping a vote before the election (60% chance of that) then voters may blame Dems for not fighting hard enough and get despondent when in fact one cannot expect miracles out of the minority.
If Mitch succeeds in replacing Kennedy, then the conservatives will get more aggressive. It won’t just be about limiting what the federal government can do to protect minority rights from conservatives or corporations but they will start weakening states rights claims to limit blue states from creating blutopia that would have a demonstration effect to change red state voting patterns. They will try to force us all to adopt Trumpist white nationalist policy emanating from DC.
The upside:
If we somehow stop Mitch from getting his justice confirmed before the election and we win the Senate we have the opportunity to stall for the remainder of Trump’s term. The SCOTUS would be 4-4 which effectively shifts power to the Democrats because decisions of the lower courts (more Dem favorable) would be upheld as the GOP wouldn’t have that many opportunities to put an injunction or a stay (or lift an injunction or stay) without a majority, and wouldn’t be able to get 5 votes to overturn a decision.
If we succeed in winning with hardball tactics, we have the opportunity to double down and go after the Nazis, the corrupt players, and other trash in this Administration, make their lives miserable and force them to quit, while being rewarded by the voters.
If we stand up for the voters now (even the ones who don’t like us) they will reward us.
I totally get the feelings. Totally. And I want to cry, too. But…
Our commitment to our values and to our country, which we express through political action, is an ethical commitment not a read of the odds. The greater the crisis, the greater the national affliction, the more your country needs you. Our journalism, your activism, your commitment are simply more important today than they were yesterday. We can lay down. We can stand up. We can walk forward. For my part, I can’t think the future is on the side of the American right when the man who now embodies is it is so consistently unpopular. But I will walk forward regardless. (Josh, some moments ago on the front.)
… I will still walk forward… I don’t know what else I have as a choice.
Thank you for your optimism. I for one, need it. This has been a terrible week but everyone knows the fight is now on and it’s for keeps. Please keep posting.
And don’t forget the First-Responder in Chief’s cabinet, who are out… I was going to say turning off the hydrants, but what they’re really doing is ripping them up and filling the water mains with cement.
move to another country. i did after bush invaded iraq. i’m still a US citizen, pay taxes. my business is US based, but i gave up years ago. it’s still a nice place to visit, but too much fear and hate there.
Blumenthal is walking the tightrope- he wants to be fair and see the Senate return to regular order. Problem is the Dems are not in control, and McConnell went all in when Obama was POTUS and will not back off now. He sees his chance to stack the court for decades. Decisions this week are only going to make the hard right think tRump should find another hard rightie to put on the bench.
Actually, it can be too late, but in this case it probably isn’t. (For example, it could be after a new supreme court justice was already approved.) That doesn’t mean that it will be effective, but at least it is the right position. In this case, I really hope that there is some way that, assuming Trump actually gets convicted for his collusion and money laundering (and whatever else Mueller has found), that we can invalidate all of his judicial nominations, even if they have already been approved. Anyone not too terrible can always be re-nominated, but if they aren’t too terrible, Trump probably would not have nominated them in the first place.