Discussion for article #225354
I’m starting to think this is going to be the equivalent of McCaskill’s last election: It’s still going to be close, but Pryor may come out on top. Whether that means he’s going to stop voting like a jackass is another question, but we’ll drive off that bridge when we come to it.
I didn’t know Pryor trailed Cotton that much.
That’s recent, from what I’ve been able to see. Polls have ranged from Cotton up 2 to Pryor up 3. A lot’s going to depend on the debates.
I hate to be a nitpicker, but the postal abbreviation for Arkansas is AR. AK is Alaska. (AZ is Arizona.) I would recommend spelling the state names out in your articles if you aren’t sure of the correct abbreviations for each.
I’ve no doubt this is a tight race, but it is worth noting the current polling average includes over a dozen “right-leaning” (aka republican-skewed) polls, all of which are putting a finger on the scale when arriving at the running average.
At this point I’d suggest waiting for a bit more balance in the polling before coming to any dire conclusions.
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It won’t make a difference. Unless Cotton has a Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock moment, he will win. It is all about numbers, there are more voters in Arkansas who hate President Obama than like Senator Pryor. Pryor is not liked by liberals/progressives but won’t be able to separate his voting record from the President enough to win.
Of course that is if Cotton doesn’t have a moment like some recent Tea Party candidates have had.
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tom Cotton 47.4%
Mark Pryor I 43.9%
Undecided
CONFIDENCE OF LEAD The probability that Cotton leads Pryor is 88.5%.
TPM Polltracker does it differently. With the 2012 presidential race, they would use daily tracking polls multiple times in calculating their average—you’d have Rasmussen in three or four times…a stats prof I know said that isn’t how you do an aggregate of polls because you’re just incorporating the same poll and its flawed methodology over and over again, giving that firm more weight.
Most of these polls in Arkansas are either partisan in their sponsorship or have shaky performance records when it comes to past races.
Nonetheless, Tom Cotton chopper probably has a couple point edge from what everyone is saying, including Pollster.
pryor was u bou 7-8 points just about a month ago now the TPM poll has him down by 6. Why the huge swing.
seems odd to me as well when he up by 8 pints recently. TPM may need to check their math
When I’m up by 8 pints, it’s time for me to call a cab.
AK is the abbreviation for Alaska, not Arkansas, so Senator Pryor is (D-AR) and congressman Cotton is (R-AR).
I am in COMPLETE accord with helping this woman receive benefits to which she and her family are entitled. What doesn’t sit well with me and all but curdles my stomach is ANYONE using this to further his/her agenda, like the senator appears to be doing, using it in an election ad. For merciful heaven’s sake, he is a public servant and should he helping his constituents WITHOUT patting himself on the back for fulfilling his role as a senator – even in the face of so many of his colleagues having abandoned their OWN obligations as public servants. Shame on him.
How well a Senator does his job as Senator might have some relevance in a campaign for Senate.
What’s a better campaign topic?
Me either.
I’m cool with telling a confused electorate, one who hates Obamacare, but likes the heck out of the ACA, about your actions in Congress. Using her as a political prop at the State of the Union? Not so much. I mean, if FoxNews is using her story as an example of how Government fails our Vets, but so many pundits on the show complain about the cost of government without explaining there are human costs to cutting government, well, is Pryor the phony or the victim of a run amok media enterprise whose aim is to kick him out of Congress?
What about a Clinton push. Probably the best thing to ever come out of Arkansas and still very popular.
What’s a Democrat in Arkansas supposed to do, he has to use everything that he has and still hold on to his as with both hands.
Bill Clinton cannot save Mark Pryor. People don’t vote because so and so endorses a candidate.
I was giving you a chance not to be negative but, fail.
By the way, if it doesn’t work, why in the hell does everyone do it?