It’s certainly concerning that SCOTUS is not content to let the lower court’s decision stand. That said, what have Breyer, Alito, and Roberts signaled previously?
From a quick google search, looks like Roberts (who called the data on partisan gerrymandering “sociological gobbledygook”) is disposed to wave away the very concept of partisan gerrymandering as something that only exists in the imagination.
Justice Stephen Breyer laid out a workable standard for the court: Were the maps drawn by one party? Do they unfairly benefit one party over the other? Does that partisan advantage last over a series of election cycles? And, if so, was there any good reason for the map other than achieving partisan control? “I suspect that’s manageable,” he said.
-Chicago Tribune
That was in response to Alito’s expressed concern (if that’s what it is) about whether there’s a manageable and concrete way to measure something like this (same source).
So it looks like Alito’s the wild card here. Does that seem about right?
What odds is anyone going to give that they manage to decide NC is OK but Maryland is not.
Oh, and the irony of people who spend years claiming to parse the precise meanings of words as used by people dead for 200 years and then complaining about other fields’ jargon.
Alito is the worst political hac on the Court, by far. If gerrymandering helped the republicans he is for it, if it were to hurt them, he would be against it. I can think if no judge who in recent memory has been so nakedly partisan and completely unteathered from any legitimate legal principles. It looks like Gorsuch may be as bad, but currently Alito takes the hac prize. Alito is easy to predict, just assign the Rs and Ds to the parties and you know how he will go.
There is unfortunately no basis for optimism. This is why I’m not one to join in the celebrations of nonpartisan or bipartisan redistricting boards, as least where Democratic states are concerned. Because we could end up, yet again, unilaterally disarming in the face of a Republican party that laughingly appropriates power to itself. If the Supreme Court holds that partisan gerrymandering is fine, then we should engage in it too, where we can. We’ll have little option, unless we’re happy with controlling the House two years out of ten.
So that’s our answer then. Roberts has already signaled he will not stand in the way either. Gorsch, Thomas, and Kavanaugh are deeply committed to perpetual GOP rule – with Kavanaugh in particular needing the RNC just to escape being investigated. With Alito, that makes five who will establish the SCOTUS ruling that gerrymandering by party is allowed.
I don’t think Alito is a wide card at all. He was asking an almost rhetorical question, as he often does during oral arguments. He has his mind made up that the answer is “no.”
I don’t think that will happen, actually. The GOP represents a dwindling minority. A SCOTUS that wants to empower that minority won’t be making complex rule boundaries that might bite the GOP down the road. They’ll rule in a way that makes all forms of partisan gerrymandering acceptable.
The question is will it be a “Republican” or a “Conservative” ruling?
Under a conservative ruling, there is obviously a link between class and race which in turn affect political affiliation and therefore gerrymandering for one party versus the other is racial gerrymandering. Under a Republican ruling, Bush v Gore and it cannot be used as precedent in other cases, so it would not even be a surprise if the court rules opposite ways to favor Republicans like it has done several times in the last 40 years.
A question here: If they vote that partisan gerrymandering is fine, I assume that the SC ruling takes precedence over any state initiative to redistrict?
only if the state court replies up the Federal Constitution. If it relies upon the State constitution (as e.g. did PA’s court) then it is unreviewable.
With the 2019/20 elections coming and the census I would think the SCOTUS would rule against gerrymandering because it now looks like Democrats will make large gains in Governorship’s and State Houses, along with retaking the Senate and White House. it will be the Democrats turn to draw a lot of the districts for the next decade.
