One thing that needs further discussion is the foreign policy impact of the relatively quick purging of the Flynn and Bannon types in the WH. By removing these types, McMaster and Mattis now have full control of military matters. That’s significant because the Flynnites are Russian agents and Bannon’s nationalist ideology complemented Putin’s objectives.
While the US remains diplomatically weak with great distrust because of Trump and T-Rex, from a security basis, Mattis and McMaster have probably found a way to preserve and save the western alliance during the reign of Trump. Russia isn’t going to be able to make major advancements outside its current sphere of influence now. Even in Syria, I think McMaster has been pushing for a continued US presence and to avoid ceding all of it to Russia. Same in Afghanistan. In North Korea, I think Bannon basically pushed US policy to accept a nuke armed tin pot despot, and the balance of power shifted to China. That is a loss. However, by proving to our allies that McMaster and Mattis can control Trump’s impulses, the Asia-Pac alliance will remain patient with us until Trump is removed from office. I also think Mattis/McMaster may have gained the upper hand on keeping Trump from blowing up the Iran deal.
The problem for Mattis/McMaster is that Trump has so messed it up in Syria/Afghanistan that they have to inject more troops to basically preserve an unstable and violent status quo. A deeper war will not be popular in the US, but letting Syria go to Assad and Afghanistan to the Taliban would produce worse long-term results. Then there is the matter of Yemen, where this Administration has taken a harder line and is quickly turning that into a mini-Iraq. That presents problems.
From the Russia perspective, Putin’s gamble on the coup to put Trump in power seems to have mostly yielded middling benefits, and now the costs may outweigh such benefits. Sanctions remain in place, keeping Putin from most of his $200 billion in wealth. Russia’s ability to expand its sphere of influence also now seems limited, as Europe has aligned against Putin’s excesses. Russia’s oligarchs now have unwanted attention, as one underrated aspect of the Mueller probe is to expose the entire underbelly of corruption in our global financial system in which these folks play a major part. European opinion on Russia is historically often divided, with some wanting to make accommodations with a large power and others wanting to take a tougher line. Now, all of Europe is diplomatically and militarily aligned against Russia, and Ukraine, in particular, is showing some real fight and feistiness in attempting to challenge him.
With the removal of Bannon/Flynn allies from the WH, and the weakening of Trump, we may be at a point where Putin begins a strategic retreat from Trump and tries to consolidate his gains to date, and make nice with the rest of the world in time for the World Cup. That process could start after the upcoming German elections.
