Discussion for article #245805
Except the demographics in upcoming primary states heavily favor Clinton, Bernie. All of them. More minorities (very few in either the IA or NH caucuses/primaries) and not as liberal. And Clinton has very large leads in those states.
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I hope Dems are paying A LOT OF ATTENTION to this because Sanders would be torn apart in the general. Torn. apart. I’m hoping that those over 40 remember the past so we’re not doomed to repeat it.
And one of the things I’m thinking right now is this: when Sanders got torn apart in the general election by any Rethug, what would happen to his so called “revolution”? Would the Berniacs continue on without him? What are they going to do once he can’t deliver on the “future to believe in”? What’s the plan after that?
EDIT TO ADD: Most of the Berniacs have been hounding Pres. Obama for the past 8 years. He didn’t follow through on his “hope & change”. But Sanders will. Right?
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man I really hope the Dems don’t blow it and nominate this guy
I know Josh just posted an editorial note exalting Bernie’s disciplined and coherent message, contrasting it with what he sees as Hillary’s scattered remarks on “fixing everything.”
I didn’t see this evening’s speeches that way. I like what Sanders has to say, as I always do. But I found his pronouncements vague. Hillary’s speech felt just as relevant, yet a bit more focused, direct and concise.
This is a big night for republicans. But it’s not over.
Honestly, when I listen to Bernie I’m truly torn. He says what I think is truly wrong with this country and directly addresses the issues that concern me. I worry too much however that he can’t make it to the finish line, and I feel that his path will be way to risky a proposition. A part of me thinks he’ll get eaten alive…metaphorically speaking. I can totally understand why and how he’s getting the youth vote though…his idealism is infectious. Yet the obstacles just seem way too insurmountable. I’m still keeping an open mind but I’ve always been a bit of a worrier. Bernie is a lot more authentic to me, and I almost waver with using that word because it suggests that Hillary is not, and I don’t really believe that for a minute. She just has a hard time with all the bullshit that gets thrown her way to put down her guard and allow herself to get out of that defensive crouch…I also just wish Bernie didn’t remind me of one of my kvetching Uncles at times. I’m afraid the "free stuff’ isn’t gonna fly either in a general election. Hell, they’ve already accused Obama for years of giving away free stuff even though he hasn’t done anything of the sort. Eh…What can I say? I like both of our candidates, but for different reasons I suppose.
Compared to the Republican Hellscape the wingnuts have created in their own minds…our candidates are just so much better and so much better on the issues that this country will have to confront.
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Hillary does have a huge lead among minorities…but it’s also a shrinking one. Some national polls now show Bernie with as much as 30% of minority voters (still quite low, but a big improvement from truly dismal single-digit numbers in the fall). But because of his stronger polling among white voters, he could conceivably win a fair number of diverse states with minority support numbers in the 40’s…he doesn’t necessarily have to crack 50%. As of the last couple SC polls (a few weeks back) Bernie seems to have around 20% of African-American voters in South Carolina, and rising (though not much recent polling to go on, so it could be significantly more or less).
So, still a very steep hill for Bernie to climb, and not that much time to do it. But assuming Hillary has a “lock” on minority voters could turn out to be as mistaken an assumption as assuming Hillary has a “lock” on women voters…which with Bernie winning women voters (all ages combined) in New Hampshire by something like 10 points (according to the exit polls).
In other words, the “firewall” argument assumes a static race…which is not what we’re in at this point. The “firewall” could still hold, chances are it will, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion.
So far this race has been one underestimation of the potential of the Sanders campaign after another. Maybe the results in NV and SC will finally begin to reflect the conventional wisdom. It’s probably a pretty decent bet that this is what happens. But at this point I would no longer bet the farm on it.
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In the meantime, no recent, reliable info from NV. I don’t know what to think of it.
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Thank you.
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Bottom line for me:
No matter how Bernie fares downstream, his message and his stand will not evaporate. Like it or not, he can be dismissed but woe be to anyone who thinks he can be fully ignored. The message he is bringing is resonating with more than just the young.
Most Americans are mad as hell and they aren’t going to take it anymore. If Hillary wants to win, she needs to open her ears and listen. Fixing everything is a great idea, but let’s hear the specifics and how she intends to pay for them.
Bernie wouldn’t be the first losing Presidential candidate whose ideas got put into place despite the loss.
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If Americans are mad as hell and not taking it anymore, why has it taken so long for them to not take it anymore? Why do we have so many Republican Governors just reelected who promised the exact opposite of what those mad Americans wanted? Clinton is the one giving specifics; its Sanders who is blowing smoke.
Now, if you like smoke, more power to you.
I expect there will be a slew of NV and SC polling coming out in the next week or so. My guess is the pollsters will wait for the NH results to settle in for a few days (so that any post NH “bump” has time to recede or stabilize), then start heavy polling of the upcoming states. At least I hope so.
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For all we know, this could be one of only two or three primaries that Bernie wins (I assume he will win Vermont by a ridiculous margin).
So, this could well be his high-water mark at least in terms of appearing to have a possible path to the nomination. If so, it’s still an incredible achievement.
Enjoy your night Bernie, you’ve earned it. Same to those who have been doing the tough, on-the-ground work that made this victory possible.
(Okay, Bernie-haters, let the hatred roll, if you must.)
I just wish more of those mad people showed up to the polls in midterms. Midterms may not be “sexy” enough to express how mad they are, but those are as important opportunities to address all those issues that make them mad.
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Leadership. I’ve been angry about the abuses of the Bush administration and Wall Street for more than a decade, but Democratic leaders will not hear it. Pelosi says impeachment is off the table. Obama felt justice would be a distraction. Obama and Bush made sure Wall Street was OK gratis – the rest of us have to work hard to get back what was taken from us; we didn’t get bailed out.
The anger has been here a long time, but “leaders” like Clinton don’t want to hear it, it gets in the way of getting money from Wall Street both for their personal wealth and to fund campaigns whether the Democratic rank-and-file support them or not.
The answer is leadership that listens, and so far that’s been Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. For the Republicans and most other Democrats the call of Wall Street is just to loud, too enticing, to stop and listen to voters.
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One things that really struck me tonight was several interviews with young voters where they talked about the huge college debts they would soon be graduating with and how that related to their votes (mostly for Bernie). There are plenty of commentators writing off the Bernie’s student supporters as self-serving kids who are just in it for the “free college” (as if free tuition really meant “free college,” but that’s another story).
But in several interviews tonight, these young, debt-burdened students made it quite clear that they realized that even in a best-case scenario the free tuition would come too late for them – and that their stand for free public college tuition was for their younger brothers and sisters, and future generations. I was so proud of these young people, it actually brought tears to my eyes and a lump to my throat.
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[Please forgive the cut-and-paste, this seems worth it]
From Bernie’s victory speech in New Hampshire tonight:
I want to take this opportunity again to congratulate Secretary Clinton and her organization and supporters for waging a vigorous campaign. I hope that in the days ahead we can continue to wage a strong, issue oriented campaign, and bring new people into the political process.
But, I also hope that we all remember – and this is a message not just to our opponents, but to those who support me as well – that we will need to come together in a few months and unite this party, and this nation because the right-wing Republicans we oppose must not be allowed to gain the presidency.
That was his second “congratulations” to Hillary and her supporters – the first one got a big round of applause, and this one got a HUGE roar of approval.
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