I would just add that this poll differs by 19 points from the PPP poll that covered about the same time period, which showed Hillary with a 21 point lead (both have similar margins of error, about 4 points). This may be partially accounted for by the fact that this Quinnipiac poll was registered voters, PPP’s poll was “likely” voters. Still, that’s a huge difference, and probably the safest bet is that the truth lies somewhere in between.
7 Likes
to be fair to Hillary, before actual voting, the national polls were measuring name recognition. Clearly she benefited there.
Now that it is closer, now that folks are paying attention Bernis’s name has gotten out there.
no one here (us junkies) should have expected anything different. This may be an outlier, but by probably not that far out.
this would also be consistent with 2008. (although Obama closed a little earlier)
2 Likes
Well, I guess it is starting to look like Occupy Wall Street is about to accomplish a hostile take-over of the Democratic Party. (-:
1 Like
I was concerned by the headline. But then I read and saw that it was a Quinipiac poll. They have been outliers this entire season in the direction of underestimating Clinton’s numbers. Anybody else notice this?
7 Likes
Fair enough, but given that it’s been months since their last poll and there have been plenty of others, it exaggerates the shift that we’re speaking of. No recent(ish) polling has shown this to be anywhere near a 30 point race, so using an old poll as a comparison referent to the new (likely outlier) poll, it hugely distorts the current picture of the data as it stands.
4 Likes
Yep. After a likely Sanders win in NH, Chuck Todd is going to be in full “Clinton’s in serious trouble” foaming at the mouth mode. Ignoring of course all the demographics of upcoming states which strongly favor Clinton. What the media is missing is that Sanders must win big in NH. It is all in his favor: demographics, neighboring state, etc. Anything else but a huge win for Bernie there will be telling. But no, the media has to spin everything as against Clinton somehow.
10 Likes
1972? Try more 2000 AND 2008! It’s a two-for-one special.
And once again, The Onion has proved prophetic (April 2015): “Hillary Clinton to Nation: Do Not Fuck This Up for Me.” Although it should have “to Democrats.”
4 Likes
That may be what you want to be true, but the numbers tell a different story. I used to believe that Sanders couldn’t win the general election, but that was when I also thought he couldn’t win the primary either. Clearly, that is not the case. It isn’t that Bernie is rising so much as Hillary is falling. Nobody likes her. She is like the left’s Ted Cruz. The latest poll also ran head to head matchups:
Clinton tops Trump 46–41percent;
Clinton ties Cruz 45–45percent;
Clinton trails Rubio 48 –41 percent;
Sanders thumps Trump 49–39percent;
Sanders edges Cruz 46 –42percent;
Sanders and Rubio are tied 43 –43 percent.
Clinton is not a sure thing any more. All this talk about electability and coat tail has been revealed to be crap. This isn’t the only poll to show that Bernie is a better general election candidate than Hillary. They both take out Trump, but Bernie leads Cruz by 4 while Hillary ties him. Hillary is losing to Rubio by 10 points, but Bernie ties him.
Bottom line, you want the White House, we need Bernie to be our nominee. Hillary is damaged goods. And she did it to herself. Bernie didn’t. I don’t understand people who think Hillary si more electable when actual data strongly disagrees with that assertion.
18 Likes
But then they would not be following the required media meme of trumpeting up anything negative towards Clinton. 
4 Likes
Can I please quote your post, in it’s entirety, to my socialist husband? He just doesn’t get it. In our state it will be close.
Almost every poll shows Bernie outperforming Hillary in the general. What data are you using to back up the claim that Bernie will get ‘creamed’ in the general?
7 Likes
This is rubbish. Pure, absolute rubbish. It is electoral votes that matter and Bernie does not have a chance what so ever to win enough. Not even close. Please learn about how presidents are elected in this country. Something I thought was taught in schools.
The lack of basic fundamental knowledge by some Berniebots is so disappointing.
6 Likes
It isn’t the only thing they missed. Like Ted Cruz being the first Latino to win a Presidential primary or caucus. Sure there were a few online news articles, but if he were a Democrat it would have been the #1 story over the last week.
1 Like
This is almost certainly an outlier: allegiances to these two well-known figures have not shifted 31 percent overnight.
I wish the TPM headline writers would use more accurate language in talking about polls. Perhaps, “Single poll has Clinton tied with Sanders.”
5 Likes
National popularity polls don’t mean much. Give me specific general election state polls in FL, NC, OH, NY (if Trump is running), PA and we can get a more accurate take on how either candidate does nationally. General election is about electoral votes, not popular votes and they don’t equate.
3 Likes
The revolution will come in 2018. It can come in 2016 if the Democratic party sees the light and collectively start talking like Bernie in a unified voice. You think it is normal that when Obama approval rating is close to 50%, and still 70-80% consistently say that the country is on the wrong track? This election is going to be very different.
There is a good chance that Bernie wins in a landslide. Presidents end up giving more importance to foreign policy as that is the only area they do not have their hands tied by the Congress. Bernie is aiming to be the next Roosevelt.
6 Likes
Well said. I think a lot of us here–not ALL I realize–feel exactly the same way. I certainly do.
1 Like
No offense, hoss, but those numbers are completely meaningless. Most Americans aren’t even paying attention right now. Sanders and Rubio to the vast majority are unknown quantities. They barely even know their names, let alone what they stand for. They can make up whatever fanciful notions they want about them. The grass is always greener and all that rot.
If you think Sanders would get to November without being absolutely destroyed, you are fuckin delusional.
The way elections work anymore, the candidates will each launch into the general with about 47-48 percent of the vote each, and then battle fiercely for the final three and a half to four points.
Despite what these head-to-head matchups say NOW, by September, it will be a VERY VERY VERY different story.
6 Likes
There were 3 polls released in the last 2-3 days, the other two showed no change at all. Am I missing something, or is this just hyping the potential outlier?
10 Likes
The Q poll has a mixed record. And I am very skeptical of both the previous supposed 31 point lead, and this supposed 2 point lead, my guess is both are somewhat of an outlier, each in different directions (in other words, probably some significant movement in Bernie’s direction, which is reflected in most of the other national polls as well, but probably a 10-15 point change since December, not a 29 point shift). That being said, Quinnipiac was reasonably close in Iowa, calling it for Hillary by 3 points, about the same as the “gold standard” DMR/Selzer poll (though, who knows, that might have just been good luck on the part of the Q poll – the polls were kind of all over the map, and someone was bound to be closer to right).
1 Like