Discussion: Sanders Nearly Tied With Clinton In Nationwide Poll

system1 · February 5, 2016, 3:24pm

Discussion for article #245603

1audiofile · February 5, 2016, 3:51pm

I am starting to sense the smell of napalm in the morning. The GOP senses victory in November for the first time in 12 years.

srfromgr · February 5, 2016, 3:56pm

I think we all get it. Sanders is going to probably, most likely, unequivocally going to win the NH primary. In the meantime, all we’re seeing now is how much the media can use the polls to pound salt into the wound, so presumably Hillary will be hurt more than was already baked into that pie. Yawn.

ralph_vonholst · February 5, 2016, 3:59pm

It also represents a significant departure from most recent national polling suggesting Clinton has a comfortable lead among Democratic voters.

This statement seemed to stick out for me.

martinheldt · February 5, 2016, 4:01pm

There’s been a real uptick i9n Bernie support.

The conflagration is growing.

george_c · February 5, 2016, 4:02pm

1972 all over again. Question for Dems: are we capable of nominating someone who can be elected, or are we consigned to nominating someone who makes us feel good and who will be swamped in November?

richardnixonhuberthumphrey · February 5, 2016, 4:03pm

Stupid stupid phone keyboard. Poor, poor owl.

mjv135 · February 5, 2016, 4:03pm

I’ll believe a Sanders nomination when I see it.

caffinatedone · February 5, 2016, 4:03pm

Yeah, it’ll probably tighten with NH likely being a big Bernie win and the media plugging that into 'ye olde narrative machine, but I’d wait for more than one datapoint to be pushing bold headlines of this sort.

ralph_vonholst · February 5, 2016, 4:05pm

But when the next poll show Clinton retaining a solid margin … Crickets from the media.

richardnixonhuberthumphrey · February 5, 2016, 4:10pm

Also, it’s absurd to say Close nThe n had a 32 point lead. She didn’t.

richardnixonhuberthumphrey · February 5, 2016, 4:10pm

Stupid autocorrect.

paulw · February 5, 2016, 4:11pm

What, people respond to polls based on huge pile of news coverage? Say it ain’t so.

tena · February 5, 2016, 4:13pm

O my god - the media totally ignored the fact that Hillary made history in Iowa -first woman in American history to win the Iowa Caucus.

If we nominate the 74 year old Ted Cruz of the left and lose this election, it’s on Bernie and his nasty nasty minions.

caffinatedone · February 5, 2016, 4:13pm

If they’re going to go for the clickbait headline, they’re going all in, so of course they’re going to take the largest margin that’s existed and compare to their (likely) outlier to make a tastier story. To say that I’m disappointed in TPM for pushing these sorts of clickbait stories is a bit of an understatement.

johnbarleycorn · February 5, 2016, 4:16pm

I concur. Every time I see an article like this, I think, “Are we REALLY going to do this?”

I love Bernie. I love his vision of America. And if he got the nom., I’d vote for him.

But two things stand out for me:

You don’t get the revolution. Our system isn’t set up that way. Our system is set up for incremental advances. Bernie would face the same intransigence that Obama has, and probably even more so. (It reminds me of something Louis L’Amour used to say, “Wars are won not in miles but in inches. You win a little one day, hold onto it, then win a little more later on.”)
Bernie would get fuckin CREAMED in the general. He’s older than Methuselah, he’s got zero foreign policy experience and half the fuckin country is worried about getting their heads chopped off by radical Islamists, and he’s an avowed socialist. After the shit Obama has taken over the last seven years for NOT being a commie, how the fuck is Bernie going to overcome actually being one? He’s also an old white guy. So we’re really going to tell the first woman with a reasonable chance to win the White House to fuck off, and then go up against a young Latino guy? The republicans have been DYING to make inroads with minorities, and this would give them the chance. “See, the fuckin’ dems were just lying to you all these years. WE really represent you! They just used you for cynical reasons.”

Bernie, as much as I love his wish we could actually HAVE his version of America, would be an absolute disaster.

k_in_va · February 5, 2016, 4:16pm

Gosh, you think maybe, just maybe, there might be some problem with that poll?

hippocritic · February 5, 2016, 4:17pm

Please stop reporting national polls as if they mean anything at this point in the process. Grow a backbone, TPM, and stop acting like the rest of the bird-brained media. Thank you, and good day.

professorpoopypants · February 5, 2016, 4:19pm

I’m a big Bernie fan, and do think Bernie, his message, and his campaign have been continually underestimated by pretty much everyone. That being said, I am very skeptical of these polling results. I wouldn’t be surprised if the national race had tightened to high single digits or very low teens. But 2% seems unlikely, probably an outlier. and the 29 point change in the gap is starting from 31 point gap back in December, which was probably an outlier at the other end.

Not saying it isn’t possible this poll accurately portrays his standing and the size of the movement since December…but I doubt it. We’ll see what happens with the next couple of national polls – and if anyone ever gets around to polling NV or SC again before those contests (seriously, what are the pollsters waiting for???) that should provide a better idea where the race is headed.

dougjpa · February 5, 2016, 4:20pm

They’re referring to the previous Quinnipiac poll, which is probably a better point of comparison than the overall average. For example, if she had only led by 6 in the last poll by the same pollster, then her lead going down to 2 wouldn’t be as noteworthy because they seemed to already be leaning towards Sanders. It’s still only one poll, and I don’t think anyone else will show anything near a 30 point swing toward Sanders. It’s an outlier, the question is how big an outlier.