Discussion for article #242140
Fairly predictable positioning here – Hillary is way out in front in most polls, so while she took a few jabs at Bernie she focused most of her fire at Republicans. Bernie is trailing significantly almost everywhere – to have any chance of winning he would need to re-gain the kind of momentum he had during the summer, so he directed a good deal of his fire at Hillary.
About 3 months to go before the first votes are cast, and of course a lot can happen in 3 months. But Bernie remains a (very) long shot, and his (slim) chances of keeping the race at all competitive (and even slimmer chances of actually winning the nomination) hinge on him winning in Iowa and/or New Hampshire…and clearly he and his campaign are well aware of this. Whether taking more a more aggressive tone in highlighting the differences in his and Hillary’s respective voting records will help him any in the polls, I don’t know…I guess we’ll see.
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Bernie is the Liberal we want, Clinton is the conservadem we’ll get.
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Latest poll is from CBS/YouGov, and shows Bernie trailing Hillary by only 3 points in Iowa, and leading her by 15 points in New Hampshire. Which at first blush would seem like very good news for Bernie. But when you compare this most recent CBS/YouGov poll to the last CBS/YouGov poll, both show increases for Hillary – the last CBS/YouGov poll back in early September showed Bernie ahead by 10 points in Iowa and 22 points in New Hampshire.
Seems pretty obvious that CBS/YouGov’s “likely voter” model must be a lot more favorable to Bernie than most polls. I have no idea whether, compared to other pollsters, they’re closer to, or further from, the reality of who will actually turn out to vote. But either way, their results in this poll compared to the last poll appear to show significant movement in Hillary’s direction in both of these early states.
In Iowa, Bernie’s number stayed exactly the same – 43%, while Hillary picked up a whopping 13 points – from 33% to 46%. In New Hampshire Bernie’s numbers increased from 52% to 54% while Hillary picked up 9 points – from 30% to 39%. While some voters may have moved from one of the two major candidates to the other, or in or out of the “undecided” category (and O’Malley gained a couple points in New Hampshire and lost a couple in Iowa), it looks like the bulk of the change probably came from Biden supporters moving to Hillary’s side after he (finally) confirmed that he isn’t running.
Exactly right. But supporting Sanders changes the debate, and it forces both Clinton and the Republicans to address real issues. For example, in just what election cycle up till now did Republicans even mention how much tuition was going up?
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Same pattern in South Carolina – Biden had 22% in last CBS/YouGov poll, Hillary led Bernie by 20 points 43-23. Now, with Biden not in the poll, Hillary leads Bernie by 43 points (!!!), 68-25. Again, the simplest and probably correct explanation is that Hillary picked up almost all of Biden’s erstwhile supporters, as well as a few additional points from previously undecided voters.
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“Hey, hey, ho, ho, the oligarchy has to go!”
Can someone who is a Clinton supporter tell me how they expect that is going to play out? Because to me, looking at all the support Clinton has from Wall Street (and recalling what Bill Clinton did to enrich Oligarchs in his two administrations) Hillary Clinton looks like a lot more of the same in that regard.
Please, tell me how I’m wrong.
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We’re not hearing any talk of “Billary” or “2 for 1” like we did when Bill Clinton was running. It’s not out of the question that Hillary’s views now are significantly different than Bill’s were. Not every President admits they want a second term, but of course they all do. This will be particularly true of Hillary. Her first term is likely to be pure gridlock much like Obama, but in a second term redistricting might make the House of Representatives representative of the country’s actual politics again. So Hillary may strike a much more populist tone, both to get re-elected and to help elect a friendlier Congress.
But I still would like to hear a lot more from Hillary about how she is going to make Wall street useful again, and not just a big casino for the ultra-rich.
For example, I don’t think Wall Street should be able to sell a derivative or any other security unless they can explain to a reasonably educated panel of regulators 1) exactly what the security is and how it works, and 2) how the security serves a useful purpose for a thriving economy, not just a way to skim off the profits of others who do useful work. High-speed trading is also a practice that adds no value to the economy, it just skims off profit. Maybe anybody who buys a security should be required to hold it for at least a week.
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That picture just makes me think of a campaign where Hillary and Bernie duke it out in an awesome respectful fashion, the way people who like each other at the end of the day do. My politics are a lot closer to Sanders but I think we all know it’s going to be Hillary. So, since everyone including the candidates probably feels that, lets use it. Take what Plucky said the other day about running a “Morning in America” campaign, and make the prelude two friggin smart people going at the issues with a smile.
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Bernie’s going to hold Hillary’s feet to the fire on her past mistakes and policy shifts, but assuming she wins the nomination she’s going to get plenty of that from the eventual GOP candidate anyway, so just as well for her if she starts preparing for that now.
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Speak for yourself.
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I’m a Bernie supporter, but I like Hillary too, and I think Hillary just showed the Benghazi Is My Savior! Committee, and everyone else this past Thursday, that she’s already well prepared to deal with the GOP’s attacks.
Sure, but there’s a difference between answering criticisms that are based in fantasy, like the Benghazi / email nonsense, and criticisms that are based in her actual record, which is what Bernie is presenting her with.
Deleted. See correct post below…
That pretty much echoes what I just posted elsewhere. As long as Hillary was being damaged by the media-driven “poll-deflating feedback loop” that she was in during the summer, Sanders had the luxury of appearing to stay above the fray since the damage was being done without his having to do anything. However, now that Hillary appears formidable and inevitable again, it is not surprising to see him starting to go “negative”, a prelude to which was on display at the event yesterday in Iowa. The only question now is how “negative” can he go before he loses the image of the nice guy who is above it all that he’s tried to cultivate…
My guess is that Hillary’s camp will largely ignore him, responding only spottily to anything he says that they think may gain traction. The electoral math simply ain’t with Sanders no matter how enthusiastically he is supported and cheered on by far-left Dems. Convinced that Sanders poses no threat, Hillary’s camp’s strategy will be to go really soft and easy on him because they do not wish to alienate his supporters, who Hillary will absolutely need in order to prevail in the general election…
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Bernie is under the gun, so to speak, he has to take chances and go after Hillary, which goes directly against what he said. So his own words work against him and the negative attacks that he must make also hurt him. But, this is the ball game that he is in. Hillary is situated perfectly in a place in time and just because no one talks about it like with Bernie, she too will go after many of the same things as Sanders and from I’ve seen, in a truly tougher manner than just what is spouted in campaigns.
Bernie hits the high notes and they are populist for sure, but there is more to being POTUS than igniting the dreams of the disgruntled. That matters too but think about what Obama has been through and dealt with, this is what is coming at the next President as well. Is Bernie that rounded or just populist?
I like Bernie a lot, his message is dead on and he either forces people to engage on his pet issues or at least realize that the country is ready for action at the Bernie level. I just don’t see him as Presidential and ready for the likes of Putin, Netanyahu and the plethora of worldly problems that are going to be for the next POTUS.
Bernie, to me, needs to fill a very important cabinet position.
Far better to simply levy a small tax on every sale. Maybe 1/100th of 1% (one penny for every $1,000) from both the buyer and seller of every transaction. I haven’t run the numbers but I’d bet you could easily finance effective FTC enforcement and prosecutions from that revenue. And probably even have a good surplus.