Discussion for article #245535
Sanders will probably win, he is expected to win, by a large margin [1]. But even if Hillary made up ground, and undecideds broke her way so that she lost by say 3-5 percent, our national media would be screaming: “Clinton humiliated in NH; campaign on the ropes”. The headlines have already been written by the narrative pushers.
[1] Maybe not as large as people expect though.
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CNN just reported that former NAACP president Ben Jealous is endorsing Bernie.
But how can this be? Hillary surrogate David Brock says “black lives don’t matter to Bernie.”.
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I 'm sure Sanders will win NH however, having said that, I think Clinton can give him a run for his money.
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If she closes the gab, will the media say what happened to Sanders? He was as such and such and he only won by blank.
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Brock is not an expert. There have been quite a few black folks coming to Bernie’s side these days and I get that. However, overwhelming the black vote will go to HRC. I still don’t think Bernie will do well in the rest of the primary states and HRC will be the nominee
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WTF TPM?! Are you part of the “establishment”, too? wink Give me a break with this misleading headline, though. “Clinton narrows gap”? What about “Sanders still leading with WIDE margin”?
(edit: Article headline was changed after this post to indicate a “slight” change to a “huge” gap. 
Thanks Obama! erm…i mean TPM.)
So who did the current NAACP president endorse? I mean if the active member endorses Hillary will the NAACP be thrown under the bus as an establishment organization even though the former NAACP was the president of that establishment organization too. I can see it now. LOL.
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So I guess now Bernie won’t call the NAACP “establishment” right?
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One thing I think Team HRC is very smartly doing is vastly lowering expectations for NH. Even Chuck Todd agreed that if HRC finishes close, it’s essentially a win. If she then dusts herself off and performs very well in SC and NV, but for the crying and the shouting, it could all be over shortly after Super Tuesday.
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You and many others…an item missing from much of the MSM HorseRace narrative. I lean more toward Sanders…but, in the event that he does not get the Nod, our real work begins.
With voters in general
With Democratic voters whose candidate did not get the Nod
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This would indicate that Bernie has peaked. He lost in IA. Gap narrowing in NH. He’ll get a bounce in national polls from a win in NH and then probably level off and slide back down from there.
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I think we all know that the finish could be as close as it was in Iowa, and it would still be spun as a miserable failure for HRC.
Heck, she could turn it around, win NH, and it would still somehow be spun as a failure.
HRC just can’t win it with most of these folks. You’d think it would be based on something rational, but it’s always based on “oh, you know, scandals (never proven), rumors (unfounded), and crimes (totally made up) just turn me off. And she lies, so many lies (because no one is ever allowed to change their mind… unless it’s your candidate, then it’s allowed)”.
There’s something buried in there causing those reactions, but I’m not quite sure what it is. The “dislike” is at Obama Derangement Syndrome levels. And is based on just as much fantasy as ODS is.
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Does this endorsement carry as much weight as that endorsement from Cornel West?
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Probably.
But jeez loooeez, neither you nor I would ever get hired as pundits, because probability is So. Freaking. Boring.
Here’s another I think is classic in this same vein: a big gap is more likely, way more likely than not, to turn into a small gap, than it is to become an even yoooger gap, without any regard whatsoever to what race is being polled and who’s contesting. It’s math. For Bernie to INCREASE his lead in NH would take some truly remarkable stumble by HRC and I’m not even sure that would do.
But the least likely thing of all to happen with a big lead in one direction is for it to turn into as big a one in the opposite direction. So, yeah: HRC is going to close the gap, but Bern’s still going to win NH.
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In the last 3 election cycles (2012, 2014, 2016) one can make the argument that polling has been bad to awful in several instances. Pollsters and their polls are hypersensitive to news cycles, frequently make errors in determining turnout, and do not make effective predictions as to where undecideds lean or where supporters of 2nd and 3rd tier candidates may go when it comes time to vote. I think Sanders will win in NH, but I don’t think it will be by a 20 point margin, and I do think HRC has a chance to make it a single digit race.
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Is it just me or does there appear to be a direct correlation between the more right leaning a person and the vehamance and acrimony of their commentary? The Hillary supports are starting to sound like GOPers here in TPM. Just an observation from a Brit who can’t even vote in in USA.
If Clinton finishes within 5 points of Sanders in NH, the media will largely play it as a win for Clinton. If not, I will both eat my hat and begin to doubt that the Clinton campaign has any skill at all playing the media.
I think your mistrust of the national media is well placed, but in this case, I think that if Hillary only loses NH by 3 to 5 points, everyone (except some of Sanders most die-hard acolytes) will see the results as an enormous victory for Clinton. I don’t think she is going to get that close, but if she just brings back all those folks who voted for her in 2008, she will do OK. I think she has a very good shot of doing that, and more. But we shall see. It would be poetic justice to see Hillary do well and then be introduced to the election night crowd by the original comeback kid!
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I posted many many months ago that I wasn’t worried about Sanders or O’Malley or Biden or or any Republican beating Hillary, I was worried the media would beat Hillary.
They just hate this woman for some reason.
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