As I noted in a previous North Korea thread, I think the frequently cited idea that Kim Jong Un is “crazy” or that the North Korean regime is “crazy” is basically wrong and misses the point.
…The regime is brutal, ruthless, and despotic, and they are deeply dysfunctional and malignant, but what is driving their nuclear ambitions is not insanity, it’s fear combined with cold calculation.
The regime is afraid of losing its grip on power. It’s afraid of the U.S. – still arguably the world’s leading military power – which is technically still in a state of war with them…So the cold calculation – and I’d argue not a crazy one at all – is that the regime is safer with a credible, deliverable nuclear deterrent than without it. And at this point they are certainly on the cusp of that, if not already there.
So I think the [North Korean regime is] playing the long, long game here, figuring that they will have forced their way into the nuclear club, and that eventually that will be accepted as the status quo, and as long as they don’t actually attack anyone, eventually the sense of threat will diminish and the world community will move on to more urgent crises. With sanctions having failed to prevent that status quo from taking shape, and likely failing to change it once it’s in place, eventually there will be pressure to try a different approach, more carrots and less sticks.
They may be wrong about some or all of that. But they may very well be right.
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