Discussion for article #228608
I don’t want to count unhatched chickens, but rank and file gun hoarding Republicans are so going to lose their shit if they get beaten in one they thought they had in the bag again.
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Turnout is key but money is too (unfortunately)
If you can spare some, donate.
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If they lose this one and Kansas—and possibly Georgia and Kentucky—there will be much gnashing of tooth at the RNC.
It might even cost Rancid Prepuce his job as head of the Asshole Party.
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Only a small uptick in turn-out and there’s no Senate takeover for the GOP. Democrats need to get their butts out and VOTE. In 2014 with social media there is no real excuse to sit this out. None.
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I saw on tv early this morning a new poll in which Orman is polling 47-42 ahead of Roberts. I believe his lead will grow.
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I do too—partly because Kansans are weary of Roberts in general, and largely because Brownback has some seriously negative coattails.
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A poll just appeared on Real Clear Politics–released by CNN/Opinion Research. It has Roberts up by one over Orman and Brownback tied with Davis.
I doubt it.
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A certifiable outlier.
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I’m starting to have the audacity to hope that this election may turn out to be a push, that Democrats may just maintain their 56 seat majority. On election night, we may wind up gleefully saying, “Holy shit, did that really just happen?” For that to happen, I think the Democrat or Indie in this race probably needs to drop out.
Oh, and I would pay good money to see Michael Steele’s reaction if Democrats do hold their 56 seat majority. After the way he’s been treated I’m not sure he’d be able to contain his glee.
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Bloomberg reported that Democrats believe they would keep the seat, being vacated by retiring Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD), with either Weiland or Pressler, who despite his previous party affiliation supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Pressler has not said publicly with which party he would caucus.
This Larry Pressler dilemma reminds me of when Josh Marshall described Sen Angus King as I-Who Are You Kidding. Pressler may be welcomed back by some of his older colleagues – your Pat Robertses, say – but those same colleagues are increasingly trying to tilt right to underscore that their age won’t hinder their ability to be obstreperous cranks to avoid people like Milton Wolf. And the result? We see the result.
Unless Larry Pressler wants to take a close three-way race as a mandate for a type of politics he has not embraced (recently amped-up hyper-partisan broad spectrum conservatism), I don’t see him as a natural fit in the Ted Cruz cloak room.
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GOP candidates need to placate the rabid tea party base to win the primaries.
But appealing to the rabid base turns off moderates in the party, such as Pressler, who balk at the tea party primary circus and run instead as independents, thereby screwing the GOP candidate in the general.
Please let this become a trend.
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I think he’s about as likely to caucus with Republicans as Bernie Sanders.
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Larry Pressler (Ind) dropping out would put a lot of support back in Mike Rounds’ (R) camp, I’m afraid.
Weiland (D) dropping out also has its problems. His recent boon of $1m from the DSCC could not be redirected to Pressler. MayDay PAC said it wouldn’t attack Pressler, who has very little money for this campaign at the moment, but it got pretty decisively in Weiland’s camp and can’t belay a mobilization of $1m with under a month to go in any reasonable scenario.
So Weiland has the money; Pressler has the better 1-on-1 favorables. Pressler might, MAYBE be able to throw his supporters behind Weiland more that Rounds, but I don’t think he’d be able to get his name off the ballot. He was a Senator for 18 years and has a puncher’s chance to come from nowhere to win another term. He has a healthy opinion of himself and won’t be dropping out in a dice roll to prevent Mitch McConnell from becoming Majority Leader.
To win the race, Weiland will have to win over Rounds and Pressler. But it’s comforting to know Rounds might falter to the point where either candidate could pull ahead. The real threat would be if Republicans were able to convince Pressler that they’re done with Rounds and could get him $5m in Koch money immediately if he definitively identified as coming to the Republican caucus. But for similar reasons as above, getting Rounds out of there at this point would be near impossible.
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I’d like to believe that. Pressler would be 78 in 2020, and I’m not sure what he would think would be easier.
If he fights his way back to the Senate after that absence, his seat will have to be pried from his cold, dead ass. So future reelection would have to be taken into consideration.
Furthermore, what if we wind up with a caucus of 6-10 Independents straddling the parties in the Senate? Sure they could keep the country from defaulting and moderate the more extreme conservatism, but if they vote in a bloc they could successfully sway many or most bills or nominations.
Most of the country would probably think that’s an unqualified good - a moderating influence on politics. I think it would also potentially lead to Ben Nelson/Joe Lieberman style corruption as well as turning a favorable map in 2016 into one full of Very Serious People standing as independents to sap Democratic chances of flipping seats in the Mid-West.
Kind of? With a closely divided Senate it’d totally be a “gang of fill-in-the-number” now and forever.
Gawd.
You know, if people would look into stuff before saying stupid stuff, they wouldn’t look stupid.
It’s a month before the election. People cannot drop out. The ballots are printed. And besides, why would Pressler or Weiland drop out?
Thinking before posting is a good idea.
Reading the rest of your post definitely cements the conclusion: you don’t know diddly about SD.
Pretty bold move if true. It could be just a feint to try to draw Republican money away from other races.
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