Yet all we could talk about yesterday was Trump’s huge bounce and how he overtook HRC in whatever other polling.
Polls drive me crazy. Like preseason college football rankings. I’ll start paying attention in about a month or so
I imagine that there will be polling soon on Putin and Trump’s connection. I can’t wait to see that.
… suggestion: don’t forget the old chestnut “dead cat bounce”. That always makes for a nice headline.
“Dead cat bounce” can also describe his coif.
People say voters don’t pay attention until after Labor Day. I doubt that old saying has much relevance in the age of three cable news channels and talk radio.
Good to see CNN looking like an outlier here.
CNN wanted a horse race poll and that is what they bought.
I remember looking at the CNN poll and thinking its sampling number (less than 1,000) was strange. This one polled almost 13,000.
ETA: “ORC International surveyed 882 registered voters July 22-24 via phone with a margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.”
The CBS poll released yesterday, whose numbers are in line with this national poll today, polled about 12,000 and the numbers jibe with the new poll.
Have to go make some donuts,but I’ll let this one marinate:Can’t, then again you Can make this stuff up.
Monday, Jul 25, 2016 01:44 PM EST
Shock poll: Nate Silver’s election forecast now has Trump winning
Contained within that article is this important paragraph:
“The now-cast is super aggressive, and can overreact to small swings in the polls. But it’s useful if we want to get a snapshot of what the election looks like right now. It suggests that in an election held today, Trump would be a narrow favorite, with a 57 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.”
Even Silver says it is a snapshot of one day.
Well, I’ve never been much of a sports fan, and the wraparound media world hasn’t changed that. I’ll perk up and take a very mild interest in the World Series around the time the final two are close to decided. I imagine that’s how most voters are, although certainly they already knew who Trump was.
Drumpf’s “October Surprise” may be an intensifying FBI investigation into his “friends” B&E into the DNC’s emails.
@realDonaldTrump what a fraud you are. Where are your tax returns? How much money did Manafort get paid by Yanukovich in Ukraine?
— Howard Dean (@GovHowardDean) July 26, 2016
If the poll was conducted in Hooterville we would have a different story.
Lisa Douglas and her Prindle could mess up all the figures.
Chris Matthews brought it up last night, something I’ve been saying for awhile now:
Trump has near 0% from the black community, not much better in the hispanic community, he’s not doing well with women so how can these polls be explained with such demographics?
Is it because of formulas for party weighting?
I think that antisachetdethe makes a good point and it lies in the polling samples.
If you go by polling that only talks to a small number of respondents, you’d swear that Rump had already been elected. However, when that polling widens considerably, Rump’s ascendancy is really challenged and that seems to make sense. Smaller groups seem to be glomming onto Rump but the country at large not so much.
National polls of any kind are suspect, because that’s not how we elect a president.
Polling in the swing states makes me far more comfortable—and is a better indicator of the eventual outcome.
We’ll see what the polls say next Monday.
I’m not a polling expert, but I don’t think what you say is right.
Smaller polls should not be less accurate on average than large polls. However, it may be the case that pollsters who use smaller samples depend on their voter models to create the final numbers. This would bias the result, if their models are inaccurate.
Only state battle ground states matter.