Discussion: New York Presidential Primary

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Based on my own internal polling numbers, I am calling the race for Hillary with 100% of the vote. It may be an outlier, but I feel it’s important that we at TPM stay on top of the latest trends.

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Trump’s chiclet smile! He never smiles, I thought he didn’t have any teef.

Hillary appears to be maintaining a better than 60-40 lead with 20% of the votes in. I’m starting to think no one has called this yet just to keep people watching. They know this is Bernie’s last stand, so they want to drag it out a bit.

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NBC just called it for Clinton.

Will be interesting to see where the spread lands.

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ABC called it for Clinton as well.

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This is a margin call by Benchmark. See how close they will be (they’ve been pretty good in this race thus far).

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/new-york-primary-live-post.html

8:39 PM CT
We are ready to make our final margin call. At 31% reporting, we are calling New York for Clinton, 57%-43%. We project Clinton will net around +40 delegates, though we will track the CDs throughout the night.

Gracias mi amigo. Tuve mucho nerviosismo

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That’s actually about the margin predicted by Nate Silver and the polls, so I guess I’m not surprised.

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Ya somos dos.

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Yep. If that 14% benchmark holds, it would be right on the button to what 538 forecast as their margin.

Hill Yeah!

Woo Hoo! I’m utterly delighted

Sanders now leading in 6 of 27 CDs. Still not enough votes tabulated yet in most of them to establish a solid trend.

Hillary is at +33 Delegates at this point.

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He must have realized that New York is a deep South state.

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Via Benchmark:

9:00 PM CT
Clinton currently +52% in CD5. We projected +52%. NAILED IT. This results in a 5-1 split.

9:06 PM CT
Clinton winning by 16% in CD6. Its mainly a Queens CD. It was supposed to be Sanders +10%. If Clinton gets to 18%, she will get a 4-2 split instead of the current 3-3 split.

Again, Sanders wins upstate whites…what a weird pattern, since upstate NY has often leaned GOP.

Not weird. Bernie wins the white male rage-against-the-machine votes all the time.

Upstate NY has plenty of college towns, Bernie’s base.