Quinnipiac, enough said!
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Please note that while they break down how Blacks and Hispanics answer their questionsâŚthey do not reveal what % of their polling was made up of Blacks and Hispanics, or even how much they are weighting those to make a model.
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Except theyâre not. Trump polls the exact same in every single one â 38, 39, 40, 41, 42 â all right in that range. The only difference is whether Sec. Clinton is beating him 42% to ~40% or 52% to ~40%. But the ~40% doesnât change one bit.
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She needs to demonstrate clearly that she sides with the people against the elites.
Yeah, her platform is completely tilted toward the elite, ainât it?
âReform our tax code so the wealthiest pay their fair share. Hillary supports ending the âcarried interestâ loophole, enacting the âBuffett Ruleâ that ensures no millionaire pays a lower effective tax rate than their secretary, and closing tax loopholes and expenditures that benefit the wealthiest taxpayers to pay for her plan to make college affordable and refinance student debt.â
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/plan-raise-american-incomes/
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or even how much they are weighting those to make a model.
3/5 of the vote of a white person, Iâd guess.
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Most people donât know what her platform says. Most people think she works for the hedge fund managers and big bankers. That is what they have been told by the media and that is what they believe. That is why Bernie did so well. Trumpâs argument against Hillary is the same as his argument against the Republican establishment. They work for the big boys. That is why I cringe every time some establishment Republican comes out for her.
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And âmostâ people think that Bernie is a grumpy old man.
Those âmostsâ cancel each other out and the name Clinton wins alone.
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I think Hillary wins, but I also want to win the Senate and put the fear of God in Paul Ryan.
You guys can live in your fantasy world all you want, but refusing to recognize that American workers have not been well served by the elites funding both parties is dangerous.
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TPM would do a great service to its members if it would do more than just reprint the results of various polls, but to also analyze the differences among them, especially in situations where several highly regarded polls are reaching wildly different conclusions. I really appreciate the commentators here who have described QINNIPIACâs deficiencies and modeling assumptions, but then I have seen that Q is highly rated by Fivethirtyeight. So, what gives? Please, TPM, some analysis please.
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Another lie, which is SOP for you.
The polling average lead for Hillary is between 6 and 8 pointsâan indication of a landslide in the making.
Sheâs only a weak candidate for Bern-It-Down Dead-Enders like you, who have no grasp of reality and who donât understand how national politics work.
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Well, the latest battleground state poll from CNN should give you heart then. She has double digits leads in all the battle ground states but Iowa, where she is up 7, that have major Senate races. Including NC.
Additionally, the polling PPP did yesterday on the Senate battleground states also paints a favorable picture for us taking the Senate back. Every race, except Iowa, has us up or tiedâŚOH, IL, PA, WI, NH and even AZ. Toss in FL, and NC and we not only win it, we have a slight margin for error.
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I canât speak for Silver, but I expect that he will be making some comments later today, given how much of an outlier this poll is. SoâŚstay tuned to 538.
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One quibble, if you look at the internals: the sample was 51% female, 49% male. In 2012, the national electorate was 53% female, 47% male. I find it extremely difficult to believe that the 2016 electorate will be less female.
2% is not a huge difference but it would definitely affect the top line results.
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Also as I noted below in a separate comment, their sample was 51% female, 49% male, whereas in 2012 the actual electorate was 53/47. Does anyone really think, with HRC on the ballot, this yearâs electorate will be less female than 2012 was?
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No, dearâthatâs what people have been told by lying right-wing shills and by Bernie Sanders, who lied about Hillary with numbing regularity during the primaries.
The media has been complicit, because the media has been hard-wired against the Clintons for 25 years.
Itâs a demonstrable truth that Hillary got far more negative media coverage than Bernie got, or than Trump got during the primaries.
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Ok, now Iâm seeing the tabs coming out on Twitter. 33% Hispanics for Trump? 1% Blacks? Screams outlier!!
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Somebody ran the numbers and this poll is expecting a 76% white electorate. Complete and utter fantasy. Even Rasmussen has Clinton with a 5 point lead. Reality most likely is high single digits. Q had a horrible rep during the primaries and itâs continuing through the general.
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Unless TPM has hired a polling expert, I would actually prefer they report the polls straight.
Thank you for this link. TPM, PLEASE use this as your new polling mantra: Polls before the conventions mean dick-all. National polls once the nominee has been decided mean even lessâŚ
Please also refer to the 538 list of most accurate pollsters and DONâT report on any polls from anyone not in the top 10.
Thank you.
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I think my use of the term âthe mediaâ is shorter than your very apt but longer description. It doesnât matter what you call those chuckle heads but they shill for large right wing corporations. You are absolutely right Hillary has received far more negative media coverage than Bernie or Trump. Thatâs not an accident.
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