Discussion: New Poll Shows Republican Joe Heck Leading In Race To Replace Harry Reid

Heck no! C’mon NV! Don’t let this happen please!

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These guys have never gotten over Reid beating them in 2010 after they nominated that nut Angle.

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Horrible news.
Absolutely horrible.

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As of today, PEC has Cortez Masto up, as well as Hassan in NH:

538 has her up as well, but Hassan down:

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How important is abortion for NV voters?

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https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-26/hispanic-turnout-is-key-to-clinton-s-fate-and-gop-s-future

A presentation by Latino Decisions pollster Gabriel Sanchez pointed out that 2010 Senate polls in Nevada and Colorado, both of which have large Hispanic populations, generally underestimated Democratic support. (Democrats won both contests.) Many polls similarly undercounted Obama’s Hispanic support in 2012.

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This is troubling news indeed if Joe Heck No is trending upward.

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Outlier – This same poll has Trump winning Hispanics in NV.

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Since when is Drumpf winning Hispanics??

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Also, outliers get attention. Selzer got a lot of attention with her FL outlier today and now Marist is going for the outlier of the evening.

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I still remember this race…

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Aww Heck
(scuffs foot)
(kicks stone and walks away)

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I’d love to hear more from our Nevada readers, because I’m baffled. I get that Nevada has always been a tough state for Dems; but I’m also assured that the Latino population in Nevada is substantial (28%) and growing more numerous and, one has to assume, more motivated to vote. Add to that the contrast in morale between Dems (stoked to vote) and Reps. (torn about the GOP/Trump), and then finally sprinkle on Heck’s own vacillations on the question of Trump, and I would have thought that, unless Masto is doing a terrible job, this has got to be one tough mountain to climb for Heck.

I guess I just don’t understand the effect that the Trump phenomenon is having on the GOP voters, particularly when it comes to the Senate races.

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Also: The Nevada Early Voting Blog reports a very similar pattern between 2012 and 2016.

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People…chill out. It’s one poll.

I also saw something earlier today on NBC, this same poll, which showed Hillary and Trump in a dead heat in NV, also showed Trump winning 40% of latinxs. That’s laughable on it’s face. Even Chuck Todd didn’t believe it, noting the statistic, and stating that their pollster explained that their latinx sample probably had too many men, thereby skewing the sample for Trump. The hilarity of this is that had the pollster oversampled properly it probably could have avoided this issue.

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It’s hard to believe Reid just voted his last vote as a Senator. Masto’s win will be the best sendoff.

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C’mon DNC, don’t blow this now…

Find every dead person in Nevada, dig 'em up, and get them voting…

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The cross tabs and models in polling matters…if this one really has Trump tied for the latin vote then there’s no way it’s realistic. It’s really weird to see polling slewing right in the last two weeks…there are now a couple separate tracking polls that show a near tie in spite of how the polls have been +6 Clinton since before the last debate, and all the indicators say Clinton should have improved after the past week. I suspect it’s conservative leaning groups pushing the polls to make the race look closer to get the Republican vote out for the down ballot races…if you were a Republican on Friday last week you were probably despondent about the election. The other polling keeps showing the Democrats improving, so it’s like there are two realities in the polling right now.

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I gotta give Chuck Todd credit, he raised the big issue, and John Ralston went with it. The NV poll shows Heck winning MORE hispanics than Mastro and Trump with 40% of the hispanic vote.

This is unbelievable. As Ralston said, if it was real, we are looking at president Trump.

Full piece (worth watching) is here: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/polls-clinton-leads-by-9-in-nh-tied-in-nevada-794365507961

I would just view this as a fluke. As Ralston notes, look at the early voting, which is favorable, it will tell you more than a poll.

This said, this poll will fire up the D’s to work harder, which is a GOOD thing,.

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