A gentle reminder; the only poll that counts will be taken at the ballot box next November. The only ones who take polls seriously are the media and those who publish them. Please see www.electoralvote.com for a comprehensive aggregation of many polls; this site has a proven track record.
You are giving up far too early. Senate races are really just getting under way now. Since the Florida primary two weeks ago, Murphy has already closed the gap to just 3 points.
We will win Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana for sure. We are well within striking distance in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania (where we have a slight lead) and North Carolina. New Hampshire is not out of reach, though I believe Ohio and Iowa probably are. And Nevada, one we need to hold, is a toss up as near as I can tell.
We only need 5 of those, (6 if we lose Nevada) to retake the Senate. 3 are in our bag. 5 more are definitely winnable.
So before we go running off to paint the apocalypse of Hillaryâs first term, lets stay on target and win these races first 
Because its far from over.
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I donât understand why the SC obstructionism isnât more of an issue. Iâm seeing attack ads against Toomey here in PA, but they are so bland and just generally accuse him of being for millionaires, not for us. I think the SC issue and government shutdowns really need to be pinned on everyone with an R behind their name. Not to mention the big orange elephant in the room.
I guess New Hampshirers?, New Hampshirites?, New Hampshireans?..whateverâŚenjoy reverting to putting their heads up their own keisters, because really, isnât ignorance just plain bliss for some folks. After all, falling in line with fascist thinking is just so much easier than standing up for whatâs fair, decent and solidly principled? Why vote for someone whoâs forward thinking when you can vote for rampant obstructionism and continuing deterioration in the Senate?
UghâŚmakes no sense to me. Btw, Emilyâs List endorses Hassan. Women of N.H. better wake the fuck up if they want to see their uniquely libertarian-leaning N.H. values held up when it comes to womenâs health and gender equality, because Kelly Ayotte sure as hell doesnât give a shit about you or your âpesky little lady partsâ in that state. She is against funding Planned Parenthood, against womenâs legal right to an abortion, against the Affordable Care Act, and was personally against same-sex marriage. In other words, thereâs nothing that distinguishes her from every other reprobate GOP asshole when it comes right down to it.
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The notion that this is a good election for the D party is not supported by the facts, history, or much of anything. There are 2-3 switches coming - IL, WI, and ⌠gee, dunno 'bout that 3rd slam dunk. Hillary has wounded herself over and over, and is in a bad position now. She is not going to have coat-tails. In fact, she will have anti-coat-tails, because most people despise her and her little shadow, Shill Clinton, the man who would sell anything for $5. The Senate is staying R, as is the house, since no one trusts Her Pantsuitedness with anything, and allowing Shill anywhere near the WH is a recipe for mass larceny.
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Arizona is out of reach. We have a better shot in Iowa, honestly.
This NH poll is a disaster. NBC has been a very favorable pollster for the Dems and I believe they get an A- from 538. I think the Clinton effect is dragging Hassan down.
Seriously though, why do people vote for repubs?
Itâs the greatest mystery in all of existence.
We need some local NH input here, but from what I see, this is an outlier, probably due to the fact that the primary takes place Sep13th, where incumbent Ayotte runs against teabagger Rubens. The Democrat, Hassan, is unopposed. So, likely much advertising has recently centered on the Repub primary, rather than the general, where Hassan has been leading recently. Could be wrong, but one poll does not an election make (especially this early).
Once again the Democratic party has failed to pick a good candidate. How many more of these Martha Coakley style candidates are we going to have to endure before the Democratic party starts grooming winners.
Wow. The doom and gloom is strong here today. Lots of talk about how bad Democrats are and we are two months out from the election. RWNJâs are always saying we Democrats are a whiny bunch of scared rabbits, turning on our own in our terror. Buck up, Democrats. This election is not over.
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Sam Wang has us with a 70%+ probability of taking the Senate.
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Yep, life is good, not deplorable.
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In San Francisco I have seen no trump signs or stickers and I wouldnât expect to. We may be looney liberals but weâre not crazy. I do however see a lot of Clinton stickers, signs and buttons, and people still sidle up to me and say âI like your buttonâ, the one on my coat. Bernieâs people havenât taken down their signage either.
@rollinnolan We have not yet seen either the president or Mrs. O with Clinton but they will be there and possibly as early as Friday for the latter and stirring up anyone who cares to listen. Yes, we do self inflict gloom and doom maybe because we donât talk as loud and as in many places as the RWNJs
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I am in OC (Dana Rohrbacher is my congressman). I have seen 1 Trump bumper sticker and 3 Hillary . Normally, my neighborhood is covered in GOP signageâŚnot this time. I think there is truth in the idea they are embarrassed to admit their support for the cheeto. Not saying they wonât vote for him, but they arenât broadcasting it, which they usually do.
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[quote=âpmb28, post:4, topic:43296, full:trueâ]
Democrats are incapable of wining winnable elections as they run weak and feckless candidates who are afraid to fight and define their opponent. [/quote]
Youâre obviously not a Democrat. Why donât you go play with the KKK and the Pepe the Frog crew of âdeplorablesâ because obviously Hillary Clinton doesnât deserve to win because she canât call them what they are: deplorable racists.
The Trump crew certainly are not weak or feckless. Enjoy the ethnic cleansing.
Itâs Emerson again, didnât we have a weird discussion about their strange methodology last week? They came out with a bunch of outlier polls early last week, and they were criticized for being a land line only poll. But I think I read that the polling company then goes and corrects for the bias with a 3 point âadjustmentâ to the final numbers? Not sure.
I would be surprised that Ayotte has opened up that kind of lead in a race ruled by 2 point margins, especially given Hassan is a popular governor in the state. PROBABLY an outlier. Let it put fear in you to donate to Hassanâs campaign if you believe she should be in the Senate (I am!) and to other candidates you find compelling. And hopefully makes Sen Sanders decide to get out there on her behalf.
And if Ayotte still in primary mode, that means these two havenât even debated yet. Give it some time. Confidence!
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Murphyâs a perfect example of plenty of upside. Unless you are Norman Braman, who expects and pays to have his own pet senator, Rubio has been entirely useless to his constituents, even the Cubans and the Mormons. There are two groups that will matter in senate and other down-ballot races, both traditionally quite passive. The first is Hispanics. We donât even know is there are any representative polls. For example, the CA-21 race is being conducted in a 71% Latino district. The second group is expats. The most important voting group youâve never heard of. Aside from military and government contractors, the GOP has zero outreach. Most are Democrats that will feel the effects of a Trump presidency more intensely that most people stateside, yet just registration can be daunting.