Okay, I don’t think he’s going to agree to stay it knowing there aren’t five votes to reverse even if they grant cert. Which I also don’t think they’ll do.
He could, but never has. The tradition for his court is to refer to the full court. Saw it happen time after time in marriage equality.
That’s the CW, but they started hammering Kay Hagan with those concern trolling fake Very Concerned Mom Who Was Very Concerned About the Healthcare Law And Needed to Share a Lot of Very Concerned Empty Platitudes to Express Her Concern ads way before Labor Day. Started in the spring, as I recall.
Hagan obeyed the CW and saved her money to respond to Tillis’ direct ads after Labor Day. It was a mistake. By that time, the damage was done. She’d been well ahead before, by Labor Day, she was down to a point or two up in the PPP and likely -2 in the real numbers.
I think Tierney covered this in one of her previous articles on this topic (and she is doing an awesome job of it). IIRC she said that the court ruled at the time it did in order for the rules to go into effect well ahead of the election, and there was almost no chance of overturning the ruling because they don’t like to change the law that close to the election, which would cause pandemonium.
So they’re asking for a stay before they file an appeal or a request for rehearing? That sounds kinda tactical.
Given the fact North Carolina is electing a governor, shouldn’t this fall under the new let-the-people-have-a-say concept keeping the Supreme Court at eight justices?
Yes…but remember, that was during a midterm election. And the messaging for that campaign was very clear…Hagan=Obama, Obamacare=bad (again for the umpteenth million time)
This year, back in the spring, the big money was still betting on Rubio, Cruz or Kasich…possibly even Bush, depending on what month in the spring.
Since then, they have had to watch in horror as Trump not only de-evolves in front of their eyes and the public…he also refuses to lift a finger on making his own ads or even defining a message he can stick to for an entire week.
Usually (like always) the top of the ticket defines the main themes that everybody will run on, to varying degrees. For one of many reasons, so that down ticket people and PACs can get their ads in line. That hasn’t happened at all this time, and its become increasingly clear it never will.
The noise you keep hearing from various groups calling on the RNC to dump Trump? This is how that looks…down ticket races go it alone and define their own messages and put out their own ads with no regard for Trump. That decision has largely been made, so you will start to see the ads popping up after Labor Day.
Plus, in many places, we are still waiting/holding our primarires. So big groups like Rove’s groups, hold off on down ticket ad expenditures until the can get some economies of scale.
I would have gone with rancid lard but yours works, too, maximus!
I would go further, outside of death stays, which are routinely granted to give time for the Court to act, I can’t think of anytime that the circuit justice will grant a stay, rather than referring it to the entire Court. Especially when there is no immediacy and it is (I assume) unlikely that 5 judges would agree to a stay.
And that is they key, it takes 5 judges for a stay, but only 4 for cert to be granted. I don’t see Breyer going along, this is very different in the balance of the equities than say the bathroom issue where re went along.
In any event, on a fact specific decision, one that raises no real novel legal issues, I don’t think that the 4 conservatives would vote to take Cert, if only because Robert’s does not want to see his line that racism is a thing of the past so the VRA is not needed so clearly shown to be complete B.S.
Beyer’s opinion calling out Texas’s BS in Whole Woman’s Health is a game changer in that it gave license (and a very useful test) for lower court’s to ignore legislative lies and look deeper. We are now seeing this in the Voting cases, where the “prevent fraud” justification is clearly and transparently a lie.
It’s all inedible lard, so it all works. Crisco, KY, Reince Preibus, etc…
Yes, I think that’s how it will probably play out too. At least I hope so.
Rick Hasen agrees with you: “So here’s my prediction: stay denied by the Supreme Court, either without comment, or with a dissent from Justices Alito and Thomas.”
Hasen based his argument on North Carolina’s 17 day delay in filing the petition after it had assured the circuit court that a decision by the end of July would be enough time to implement its decision and the fact that the circuit court made a finding of intentional discrimination.
Nope. Roberts can only issue a temporary stay until the full court has chance to consider and vote. It would be an emergency stay of a few days at most.
Critical in a death penalty case. Not relevant here.
Correct, and Roberts is the Circuit Justice for the Fourth Circuit.
Roberts needs to be careful about this: the Court is not currently in session, but if he issues the Stay the full court gets to tell him, “No, you don’t either.” I believe it takes five votes to issue the Stay.
If the Court doesn’t confer and vote on the Stay before the first Monday in October it’s possible that North Carolina could find themselves with less than a month to implement all the stuff they currently say they can’t.
I don’t think the justices would bust NCs chops if they put forward a clear effort to follow the Circuit Court’s orders but failed in one or two respects. They might be less inclined to leniency if they behave as if the Stay were a done deal and they didn’t need to make any effort.
That said, some of what they are claiming to be incapable of is pure bullshit. It doesn’t cost anything to not check voters’ photo IDs. They claim that the same number of early voting hours have been maintained, so the cost argument is also bullshit. The big expense in having the polling station open is the personnel cost. Since these people are paid on an hourly basis, it amounts to essentially the same cost.
Roberts should not issue the Stay, but I’m not sure Roberts knows what he is going to do. If Alito or Thomas was making the decision I’d be pretty sure that it would be issued.
The full Fourth Circuit has already told NC to fuck off pound sand push a rope forget about an en banc hearing.
I like your verbiage better.
This is gonna be interesting to watch. Per Robert’s opinion in gutting the Voting Rights Act preclearance, the institutional racism the VRA was designed to fight no longer exists. Then NC goes and does this thing. If he issues the stay, then that is the same effect of saying, “see, I told you this stuff doesn’t happen anymore… even when it does”. His judicial legacy is toast in any event.
“All five provisions had been deemed discriminatory in their intent by a three-judge panel of the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.”
North Carolina’s petition maintains that racial gerrymandering is perfectly constitutional.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/17239/large/csa_constitution.jpg?1359321295
As will be argued in court be their esteemed counsel, Gerry Mander and Jim Crow.
It’s your money, conservatives. Good to hear you’ve got it to burn.
He also did Oberfergell (sp)