Discussion: Nate Silver: GOP Has 60% Chance Of Winning The Senate

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21

I don’t consider Kapur to be the messenger on this, I consider Silver to be.

However, a snapshot is meaningless at this point - tell us what it was a month ago, three months ago, six months ago.

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22

Data, especially when it comes from Humans, is only right until it is wrong. After all, 95% of Americans say they have never participated in a survey or poll.

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23

bummer

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Doesn’t shock me at all. If they do win it will most likely be 51-49 split. They will lose it again in '16 even if they get a hold of it. But like he said, slight favorites and it could easily swing the other way during the campaign

25

Actually, it seems to me that the last I heard Nate Silver’s projection for the 2014 Senate elections, he gave the GOP a roughly 50% chance of taking the Senate. So if my memory is correct, their chances have actually increased quite a bit since then – which surprises me, since several key races have tightened up.

26

You’re being unfair, Meri. Sahil got you the latest news on the free part of the website and quickly. That’s of value to TPM and its readers. Is it beyond your capacity to hit the damn link in Sahil’s post to find the trends you’re curious about?

Geez, anonymity just breads meanness.

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27

Sam Wang from the Princeton Election Consortium has it as 50 percent that the Dems keep control, down from 55 percent from a week or two ago.

He has Georgia drifting away from the D’s and Alaska drifting away from the R’s.

28

Which would be … ?

29

60/40 seems about right to me, given it’s an off year and the nature of the battlegrounds. Our superior ground game and their infighting and the festering resentments of the teatards toward the establishment could result in a happy surprise.

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30

Yeah, but have these numbers been unskewed?

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31

The polling may view Nunn a bit more favorably than Grimes right now. But the key difference is that Nunn’s running against a first-time candidate and that Grimes is running against a brutal, savvy incumbent. While I like the way that Grimes is campaigning, you have to factor in that Perdue is more likely to run into any number of first-time-candidate problems than McConnell is.

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32

I’m prepared for the possibility,but not the “likelihood”. I believe Begich,Landrieu and Hagan are gonna win and the worst-case scenario is a 51-49 Dem Senate.

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33

I think the best-case scenario is Dems lose one seat in the chamber (win KY and GA, lose SD, MT, WV), while worst-case would be losing 9 or 10, which would suck – but still would leave them big favorites to mop up in 2016 and take the chamber back.

I also think Landrieu and Pryor are ahead of what Nate says, Begich might be a little behind, Hagan is dead-even, and lastly I think Meeks is going to have a spectacular Macaca Moment and go down in a ball of flames.

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34

In an attempt to make chicken salad out of chicken shit, look at it like this, if the democrats were favored by 60% it might have a negative effect on on democratic voter turnout.

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35

In my unscientific following of the races, that sounds about right. I trust Nate-when has he been substantially wrong?

36

Are the majority of American voters that insane?

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37

But let’s not count on that happy surprise.

We need to get out the vote, especially among young people, women, blacks and hispanics.

We also need to hit hard at this true and scary message: If you think this Congress was bad, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Let’s take our country back from people who put their party’s interests ahead of the nation’s interests!

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38

Not all Americans are voting for Senate this election – in fact, only one-third of Senators (plus 3 vacant seats) are up.

Unfortunately, the quirks of this cycle have the 36 up for election predominantly coming from very Republican states.

In 2016, the scenario will be flipped, and some Republicans in very Democratic states will be facing tough election campaigns.

2018 will be another election much like this one, however. Majority Democratic seats up, in a midterm.

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I don’t trust anyone who predicts that my predictions, based completely on emotionalism, will fail to come true.

40

Scary ain’t it.

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