Discussion: Michigan Presidential Primary

Wow, Rubio is under 9%. Is he an empty suit or WHAT?

Gross people indeed

Micro Roboto could get blanked tonight in al the GOP contests this evening. Though Hawaii may be his best change of not getting 0 delegates tonight.

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Over at FiveThrityEight, Harry Enten just posted:

the Wayne County clerk’s website to try to get an idea of where the vote is being reported from in Wayne County. It seems, at least as of earlier this hour, that Detroit was at 0 percent. The nearly uniformly white areas of Grosse Pointe Shores and Plymouth were at 100 percent. In other words, the percentages coming out of Wayne County right now don’t really reflect how black areas are voting.

Sanders is doing well in MI so far, but we have yet to get a real feel for the state results because of the large population centers have basically yet to report anything.

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I’m betting the chatter tomorrow will all be around whether he decides to take one for the team and stay in through the FL primary or gets out early and (possibly) salvages something of his political career.

My guess is he suspends and throws what little support he has to Kasich.

I dunno. I have a hard time seeing him fold before Florida. But who knows. Christie endorsing Drumpf proves all bets are off on the GOP/crazy-town side of the ledger.

Even so, my guess is that black voters in a northern state with a strong labor movement will be more friendly to Sanders than in southern states. Not to the point of a majority, perhaps, but he will probably take a larger number.

Rube is going to lose Florida to Drumpf, so he might want to save himself the embarrassment.

Agreed. Sanders seems to be doing better than other states with the black vote this time. So far he is only losing the black vote to Clinton by 68%.

Well, I think he crossed that Rubicon (heh) long ago.

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Hee hee.

One thing that is worrisome is the apparent enthusiasm level for the republican primary in Michigan. There are roughly equal numbers of democrats and republicans in this state, but Trump, with only 37% of the republican primary vote, actually has more total votes than Hillary Cllinton, who has 46% of the democratic vote.

You can choose your party affiliation at the polling place for the primary - and it is not binding for other elections. I just wonder if the republican primary is pulling in a lot of independents. That would be bad - the democratic nominee has to win Michigan and to do that has to win the independent vote.

Edit - actually amend what I said below - those were apparently not-updated numbers - but still, there are more voters in the republican primary than the democratic one tonight.

Thanks. About 84% of precincts have reported in Oakland County, and Hillary is ahead there, but only by a couple points. No results yet from Kent County. Thanks for the heads up on Washtenaw and Ingham

Good old Kent County where I live has barely even reported in yet. Home of flakey former Kent County Clerk Terry Lynn Land if you recall. We have another Republican in that role now, who’s really an anti-gay bigot. Time for her to get her ass in gear. Kent County went for Obama in '08 and in '12 btw.

Looks like Cruz won over all the Calvinists and Dutch Reformed and Christian Reformed on the west side of the State. No surprise there.

Washtenaw is going to go heavily for Sanders, I predict, because of the U of M vote.

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Ingham County might too because of Michigan State University. Add Western University in Kzoo too, in Kzoo County.

Yeah that’s what I was wondering about earlier, when only about 7% of Wayne County was in and Bernie was up by 10 points…which seemed an unlikely outcome overall. I wonder if any of Detroit has come in yet, and that’s included in her less-than-overwhelming showing there so far, or whether we’re still just seeing the results of whiter suburban areas in Wayne County.

I think it will be close, but Sanders is definitely over-performing so far in MI.

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Neck-in-Neck in Macomb too. (Warren is in Macomb)

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Dearborn, Livonia, Taylor and Allen Park are all in Wayne too - Wayne is basically Detroit and the western suburbs which are quite populous.

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